Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Windy conditions developing later today will bring increasing surf and dangerous swimming conditions to most Panhandle and East Coast beaches. A high risk for rip currents is expected for the entire East Coast with a moderate risk for most Panhandle beaches. A local high risk is expected for Gulf County beaches. A low risk persists for Northwest Florida and West Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Seas will begin to significantly increase later today along the East Coast in the wake of our frontal passage. Windy conditions and a building ocean swell will bring surf of 5-8’ for all Northeast Florida and Space Coast beaches this afternoon. Waves near 2-4’ can be expected for the Treasure Coast, with surf of 1-3’ at all other Florida beaches. Tonight, the high surf will continue to push southward across the remainder of the East Coast. Waves near 9-12’ are expected along all Northeast to Treasure Coast beaches, with Southeast Florida beaches seeing surf of 3-6’. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from Nassau County through Palm Beach County along the East Coast beginning later afternoon and evening and through the weekend. Waves will also begin to increase to 2-4’ for all Gulf facing beaches tonight.

 

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in and offshore Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County (valid 3/27/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: Strong onshore winds and high surf along the East Coast may allow for minor tidal flooding and beach erosion during the late Saturday night/early Sunday morning high tide cycle.

 

Fire Weather: A dry frontal passage is ongoing this morning across North Florida with a much drier and windy airmass beginning to filter into the Panhandle and Big Bend region in its wake. North to northeasterly winds will begin to increase to 15-20 mph later this morning and early afternoon with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible. Paired with critically low relative humidities (20-30%), conditions will become favorable this afternoon for significant wildfire development and spread throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT for all of the Panhandle and much of the Big Bend for this critical fire weather risk. Recovery in relative humidities are expected overnight, back above critical thresholds, though some breezy conditions will linger which may keep any wildfire suppression efforts more difficult. Further east, even stronger winds are expected throughout Northeast Florida, especially along the immediate coastline, where sustained winds of 25-30 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph. Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds here, though given the extreme to exceptional drought, elevated wildfire conditions can still be expected. Breezy winds with gusts of 15-25 mph will spread throughout the rest of Central and South Florida today, though the frontal passage will tap into enough moisture in these areas promoting isolated to widely scattered shower activity (25-50% chance of rain). An isolated lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with this activity this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 60 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,048 acres.

 

Drought (3/19/26): Very little changes were made to this week’s Drought Monitor update, even despite much of the Sunshine State seeing beneficial wetting rains earlier in the period. As previously mentioned, the rainfall associated with the potent springtime cold front helped Florida locations in the near-term, as observed in improved KBDI values; however, observed rainfall totals were still not enough to alleviate long-term drought and dry soils/vegetation. Widespread severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues nearly statewide, with the largest change occurring along the northern reaches of the Suwannee River. Exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought has been introduced over eastern Madison, Northern Gilchrist, western Suwannee, and Hamilton counties; portions of the Florida-Georgia state line saw  worsening soil moisture and precipitation deficits and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March. Very heavy rain fell in parts of Miami-Dade County, resulting in some improvements to drought conditions, though the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 475 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 27 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. A cold front will sag into Central and South Florida through the day today, eventually stalling across South Florida later tonight. Sufficient moisture will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers to develop this afternoon ahead of and along this front. Activity will mainly move onshore from east to west along the East Coast with the Treasure Coast and Southeast Florida favored for numerous rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms. A few locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out and any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavier activity could see localized flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage areas of Southeast Florida. Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2” through tonight, though locally heavier totals upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.

 

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.95 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.39 feet below normal for this time of year.