Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, May 18, 2026
... Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Throughout South Florida and Northern Panhandle this Afternoon... Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours the Primary Hazards... Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Danger Persists Throughout the Peninsula and Northeast Florida... Highs in the 80s and 90s... Feels-like Temperatures Reach the Upper 90s to 100-degrees in South Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 8:48 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South of I-4 Corridor
|
|
Iso. Southwest FL |
Locally Nature Coast & Northeast FL Rest of State |
Locally Southwest FL |
Iso. South FL |
Locally Western Panhandle & Northeast FL |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern today with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevailing throughout much of North Florida. Drier air will filter into Northeast and North-Central Florida today where chances of rain will remain near zero. With this drier air, relative humidities will approach critically low values (35-45%) and overlap with breezy winds gusting upwards of 20-25 mph, which will encourage sensitive to locally elevated wildfire danger this afternoon. Moisture will linger south of the I-4 corridor and across the northern Panhandle where the sea breezes will help to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain). The highest chance of rain (50-75%) exists along the Southwest Florida coast. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will remain generally below 1” in most locations, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-4” should they see repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
High temperatures will climb into the 90s throughout much of the state, with breezy winds gusting upwards of 25 mph along the I-95 corridor keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler. Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100-degrees across Southwest Florida.
Tonight, any lingering showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset. A few coastal showers may push onshore throughout the overnight hours along the East Coast (15-25% chance of rain). Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys. Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle by daybreak Tuesday.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk is remains for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas will increase across Panhandle beaches today, with surf near 2-3’ expected. Surf along the East Coast will also remain elevated today, reaching 2-4’ this afternoon. A few waves upwards of 5’ cannot be ruled out in the surf zone for Treasure Coast beaches. West Coast beaches can expect surf near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia and Bay counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/8/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern today. Winds around this area of high-pressure will filter in a pocket of drier air with near critically low relative humidities (35-45%) across Northeast and North-Central Florida this afternoon. Breezy winds with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph will overlap this drier air encouraging sensitive to locally elevated wildfire danger. These breezy winds are expected along the entire East Coast today, though greater moisture will linger throughout Central and South Florida where relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Florida and the northern Panhandle may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida towards daybreak Tuesday which can lead to significantly reduced visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 63 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,660 acres.
Drought (5/12/26): Some categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the Panhandle where plentiful rainfall fell. Rainfall totals measured 4 to 6 inches across the northern Panhandle, with localized amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches or more. As a result, the extreme drought across northern Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties has been downgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The exceptional drought across much of Jackson County has also been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) due to this heavy rainfall. Despite rainfall adding up to 1 to 2 inches across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, the severity of the ongoing drought resulted in no changes to the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4). Throughout the Peninsula, rainfall was mostly confined to the I-95 corridor and interior South Florida, with amounts generally between 1-2 inches. This was not enough for any improvements in the drought throughout the Peninsula, with areas of Southeast Florida actually seeing expanding moderate (level 1 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The larger drought picture was otherwise untouched. As a reminder, the cutoff for rainfall on this week’s update was Tuesday (5/12) at 8 AM EDT, thus the heavy rainfall that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be taken into account on next week’s update. This rainfall will likely help with drought conditions across the state, though significant improvements are not expected given just how long this drought has been in place and how severe the long-term rainfall deficits are. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 24% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 465 (+9) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 37 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of the I-4 corridor and across the northern Panhandle this afternoon. A few of these storms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will be localized in nature, with most locations seeing generally below 1”. However, any areas that see repeated rounds of heavy downpours could receive upwards of 2-4” of rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.41 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.90 feet below normal for this time of year.
