Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Breezy winds and elevated surf will bring a high risk for rip currents to all East Coast beaches today. A building ocean swell in the Gulf will also bring elevated surf to Panhandle and West Coast beaches where a moderate risk for rip currents is outlooked. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: An ocean swell will continue to build across the Atlantic and Gulf waters today amidst breezy post-frontal winds. Waves will reach 6-8’ across most Atlantic beaches this afternoon, with surf near 2-4’ across Southeast Florida. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will also see waves around 2-4’. The larger waves will surge southward along the East Coast tonight, reaching Southeast Florida where waves will increase to 5-8’. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Palm Beach County beginning at 2 AM EDT tonight.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Lee, Okaloosa, Escambia, and Gulf counties (valid 4/17/26).

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.

Fire Weather: Yesterdays dry frontal passage throughout North Florida brought very little wetting rainfall with a very dry airmass and breezy winds in it’s wake. Winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph this afternoon with frequent gusts upwards of 20-25 mph. Paired with relative humidities well below critical thresholds (15-25%), much of North Florida will see critical wildfire danger this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect throughout much of North Florida until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT for this wildfire risk. Throughout Central Florida, elevated wildfire danger is expected today where winds will also be breezy, but relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout South Florida this afternoon. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty and erratic winds, as well as lightning that can spark new fires or reignite existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 103 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 19,189 acres.

Drought (4/16/26): Although rainfall has been sparce and nearly non-existent across the state in the last 5 days or so, last week’s rainfall that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday (4/7 – 4/8) was included in this most recent Drought Monitor update which has brought some categorical improvements to South and Central Florida. Rainfall totals across coastal East-Central Florida during the middle of last week added up to 3-6”, with some localized areas exceeding 6”. Additionally, across Southeast Florida, a general 1-3” of rainfall was observed with localized amounts upwards of 5”. This has resulted in the extreme drought being reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) across the Treasure Coast and much of the severe drought along the southeast coast reduced to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Across interior South-Central Florida, a pocket of locally heavier rainfall over Hardee, DeSoto, and Highlands counties has brought a return of a severe drought (level 2 of 4). Much of the I-4 corridor saw rainfall amounts between 0.5-2”, which was enough for some severe drought across the Space Coast to be reduced to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Otherwise, there were no observed changes on this week’s update across Southwest or West-Central Florida where an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place. North Florida continues to experience the worst drought due to severe and record low precipitation deficits. An exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) is still observed throughout much of the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) elsewhere. The Big Bend region remains one of the hardest hit locations, such as Tallahassee that has neared a 20-inch rainfall deficit dating back to September 1, 2025 (about 8 months ago). This has resulted in extremely low streamflows within all river basins, streams, lakes, and ponds. Looking ahead, very dry and near record warm conditions over the past week will continue through at least the beginning of next week. This will result in additional drought expansion throughout much of North Florida, with potential for worsening drought across Central and South Florida. Additionally, a dry cold front will sweep through North Florida on Sunday and Monday, bringing increasing winds and low relative humidities which will further dry out sensitive fuels.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 488 (+9) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 34 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today across Florida. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout South Florida this afternoon. A few storms could become locally strong and capable of producing a few locally heavy downpours. Areas of nuisance urban flooding cannot be ruled out with rainfall totals generally between 1-3”, though a few locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out.

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.97 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.92 feet below normal for this time of year.