Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, November 22, 2025
...Patchy Dense Fog Across North and East-Central Florida Gives Way to Mostly Sunny and Dry Conditions Throughout the Sunshine State... Isolated Shower Possible Across Panhandle Today... Another Day of Near Record Warmth Across North Florida... Sensitive Wildfire Concerns Continue... Fog and Low Clouds Likely Across Parts of Florida Peninsula Overnight... Locally Dense Fog Possible Across Northeast and East-Central Florida... Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Continue for Most Florida Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 8:10 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. Panhandle |
Locally Northeast FL North & Central Florida |
Locally Northeast & East-Central Peninsula |
Panhandle Space & Treasure Coast West Coast, Northeast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Locally dense fog has developed across parts of North and East-Central Florida this morning and Dense Fog Advisories will remain in effect until mid-morning. This morning fog will dissipate during the morning hours giving way to another mostly sunny and dry day across the Sunshine State. A weak upper-level disturbance traversing the Ohio Valley will have an attendant cold front draped southward across the Southeast U.S. which may bring an isolated shower to the Panhandle this afternoon, though any activity will remain brief and light in nature (10-15% chance of rain). High temperatures will remain above average for mid to late November standards, reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s statewide. A few locations may approach record high temperatures this afternoon across North Florida.
Wildfire conditions will be mostly subdued today across the drought-stricken North Florida as relative humidities increase amidst moist southerly flow. However, the very dry background conditions will still provide for sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon, especially in areas experiencing significant drought. Winds will increase across North Florida today, with wind gusts upwards of 20 mph possible. Please continue to use extreme caution when dealing with any activities involving flame, or with materials that can cause sparks.
An isolated shower cannot be ruled out north of I-10 across Northeast Florida tonight as the weak frontal boundary approaches (10-15% chance of rain). However, any activity will remain light and brief. Otherwise, another calm and clear night is expected which may allow for another round of fog and low clouds early Sunday morning across the Florida Peninsula. Locally dense fog is most likely within the Suwannee River Valley and East-Central Florida overnight where moist southerly flow will usher in low-level moisture off the Gulf. Dense Fog Advisories will be issued as conditions warrant. Low temperatures will reach into the upper 50s to middle 60s nearly statewide, with middle 60s to lower 70s expected in Southeast Florida and the Florida Keys.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Ahead of a weak frontal boundary, southerly onshore winds will increase across the Panhandle today leading to a moderate to high risk of rip currents for all Panhandle beaches. A low to moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for all East Coast beaches, with a low risk remaining for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calm marine conditions are expected for all beaches statewide today with wave heights of 1-2’ expected. An isolated breaker of 3’ in the surf zone cannot be ruled out for Panhandle beaches as onshore winds increase today.
Red Tide was observed at background to low concentrations in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Lee, and Collier County in Southwest Florida. In Northwest Florida, it was observed at background to medium concentrations in Bay County, background to high concentrations in Gulf County, and low concentrations in Franklin County. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast over the past 7 days (valid 11/21).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Southerly winds ahead of a weak frontal boundary will usher in abundant low-level moisture to keep relative humidities well above critical thresholds across the drought-stricken North Florida today (50-65% RH values). Additionally, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon across the Panhandle. However, given the very dry background conditions, sensitive wildfire concerns will remain this afternoon especially for any areas experiencing the most significant long-term drought. Winds will increase this afternoon with this frontal boundary, with wind gusts upwards of 20 mph possible. Areas of fog that develop near any ongoing wildfires or active burns may locally further reduce visibilities. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 59 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 607 acres.
Drought (11/20): The past week was almost entirely dry across the entire Sunshine State as temperatures warmed to above seasonable levels. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor and further degradation was seen. Across South Florida, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced across interior Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties with expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) towards the Southeast coastline. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was also introduced across Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades county, as well as around Lake Okeechobee where rainfall departures from the past month have neared 2-3 inches. Moderate Drought remains in place across much of West-Central Florida with further expansion into Polk county and northward along the entire Nature Coast. Rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches across West-Central Florida. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) have remained in place, with expansion southeastward of the Extreme Drought into much of Suwannee, Columbia, and western Baker County. Severe Drought was also added to much of the Forgotten Coast along Taylor and Dixie counties. An Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) was introduced to northern Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where streamflows have reached very low levels, vegetation has become very dry, and agricultural impacts have worsened. This is the first Exceptional Drought seen in the state of Florida since February 2012. Long-term rainfall departures continue to decline across the Panhandle, and significant rainfall is not expected over the next week as temperatures remain above seasonable levels. As such, worsening drought conditions are expected over the next week across much of the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 499 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 42 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor has finally returned to nominal background levels, though water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns, including Lake Harney and Sanford, remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning. There are no other riverine concerns statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.76 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.15 feet below normal for this time of year.
