Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Happy St. Patrick's Day!
...Cooler and Drier Conditions Return to the Sunshine State...Stray Showers and a Thunderstorm Possible for the Southern Florida Peninsula...Breezy Conditions Linger in the Wake of Yesterday's Cold Front...Freeze Watches and Warnings Go into Effect Tonight for North Florida Locations Once Again Tonight...Widespread Frost Likely...
Updated at 10:05 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South Florida & Keys |
Statewide |
Interior North Florida North Florida & Nature Coast |
|
Gulf County Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast Florida Panhandle & Northeast Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The colder airmass has certainly settled in behind yesterday’s strong frontal system, with chilly temperatures in the lower to middle 30s observed across much of North Florida this morning. That marks an impressive 30- to 40-degree temperature swing over the past 24 hours! Temperatures are starting to warm up under the mixture of sunshine and clouds; however, afternoon temperatures peak in the 50s and 60s across North and Central Florida. Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds of 5-15 mph will continue to reinforce the cooler and drier weather, with wind gusts of 15-25 mph possible throughout the Florida Peninsula. As our recent frontal system stalls over the Florida Straits, its proximity will still allow for isolated to scattered shower activity across South Florida (40-60% chance of rain). While a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, severe weather or flooding are not expected. Afternoon high temperatures remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
Another cold night expected across North and interior Central Florida, with temperatures plummeting at or below freezing. Freeze Warnings have been reissued for the interior Florida Panhandle and Freeze Watches are in place across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee River Valley; upgrades to Freeze Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant this afternoon. Even as winds gradually subside through the evening and overnight hours, feels-like temperatures in the middle to upper 20s can be expected throughout North Florida; sub-freezing wind chills are also possible from the Nature Coast into interior North-Central Florida. Conditions will be favorable for widespread frost to develop across North Florida; Frost Advisories will go into effect along the northern I-75 corridor tonight. This is especially important for agricultural interests as many plants and crops have already begun to bud, bloom, and green up after the warm 2-week stretch of late February/early March.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk of rip currents can be expected along all Florida beaches today, with low risk conditions gradually returning to Northwest Florida beaches through the day. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy post-frontal winds will continue to yield dangerous beach and marine conditions along Florida coastlines today. Wave heights of 3-5’ can be expected along Florida Peninsula beaches, spanning both the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. Isolated breakers in the surf zone may reach 6-8’ along portions of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County beaches. Sea state returns to 1-2’ along the Florida Panhandle.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton, Bay, Escambia, Gulf, and Franklin counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/13/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Yesterday’s wetting rains were certainly beneficial in the short-term; however, we will need several more rounds of rainfall to push the needle out of the deficit and improve the long-term drought and dry soil/vegetation. Relative humidity values quickly dry today and approach critical thresholds across North and interior Florida (20-30%), with breezy northerly to northwesterly winds lingering throughout the Sunshine State; given recent rainfall the overall wildfire threat will be held at locally sensitive to elevated levels today. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 54 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,876 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 464 (-40) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 26 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected across Florida today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
