Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is outlooked for eastern Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches today. A low risk is expected for all other beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Surf heights remain limited for all beaches today. The highest surf heights will be around 2-3’ across Northeast and Space Coast beaches. Surf heights of 1-2’ are expected for most other beaches today.

 

Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Pinellas and Hillsborough counties over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/19/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.

Fire Weather: Moisture will begin to filter back into North Florida today as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a mid-level disturbance passing north of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later today which will keep relative humidities above critical thresholds and the overall wildfire threat low. Scattered showers and storms are also expected across the Peninsula today with a focus on Interior and Southwestern regions. Any thunderstorm could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. Much drier conditions have developed locally over West-Central Florida where a predominate westerly flow has kept thunderstorm activity off to the east. As such, locally sensitive wildfire conditions have developed here amidst ongoing extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Have expanded the area of locally sensitive wildfire conditions to include most of the Florida Peninsula as well to reflect the threat of lightning-based ignitions today and the uptick of fire activity seen across these areas in recent days. A few active wildfires across Southeast Florida may lead to dense smoke in and around the fires, leading to poor air quality.  According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 71 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 43,290 acres.

 

Drought (6/23/26): It was a very wet week across much of the state as we saw a nearly stationary front bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the I-10 corridor and active sea breezes promote daily showers and thunderstorms throughout the Peninsula. Some of the biggest changes on this weeks Drought Monitor update were observed across the Panhandle. Rainfall amounts between 4-8 inches, with locally as much as 12 inches in the northern Panhandle, has resulted in all moderate drought (level 1 of 4) west of the Apalachicola River to be downgraded to abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions. The far northern portions of these Panhandle counties, where the heaviest rainfall fell, have now been completely removed from any drought category. Rainfall departures here are now between 10-15 inches above normal or more in the last 90 days. Further east, much of the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley received between 3-6 inches of rainfall over the course of the past week. This has resulted in all localized pockets of exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) to be downgraded to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) conditions. This area of extreme drought extends along the Forgotten Coast and into the upper Suwannee River Valley and interior Northeast Florida. Moderate to Severe Drought (level 1-2 of 4) surround this area across the remainder of the Big Bend, Northeast and North-Central Florida. Across the Peninsula, much of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) along the West-Central coastline remains. Rainfall totals here over the past 7 days have been negligible, which has kept the persistent drought around. Sea breeze activity focused across East-Central Florida brought rainfall amounts of 2-4” last week, ridding coastal Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties of any drought category this week. Areas of moderate to severe drought (level 1-2 of 4) persist across much of the I-4 corridor and interior Central Florida. Pockets of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) are also found in southwestern Polk and central Hardee and DeSoto counties. In South Florida, heavy rains focused across the southwestern region bringing severe drought conditions down to moderate drought (level 1 of 4) along coastal Monroe and Collier counties, as well as interior Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades counties. Only a small pocket of severe to extreme drought (level 2-3 of 4) persists across interior Miami-Dade, Broward, Collier, and Hendry counties. Looking ahead, sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will largely persist daily across the state, especially focused across the Peninsula. A brief stretch of drier conditions is expected this weekend before increasing moisture returns to the state beginning on Monday. Some localized improvements in the drought are possible in areas that do see heavy rains. However, areas that fail to see the scattered rainfall will largely see drought conditions persist amidst hot summer temperatures.

 

 

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 345 (+15) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 10 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

 

Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the northern Panhandle and Big Bend today where a remnant mid-level disturbance passing north of the region, paired with the Gulf sea breezes, will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few storms could produce locally heavy downpours and lead to nuisance flooding and ponding of water, mainly in urban and poor drainage locations. Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding throughout the Peninsula, slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms may also lead to localized urban flooding. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out.

 

Riverine Flooding: Water levels have begun to slowly recede across much of the western Panhandle following the episode of flash flooding late last week and weekend. Many rivers, creeks, and streams have diminished back down to Action Stage (bank-full). However, the Escambia River near Century and Choctawatchee River near Bruce-Ebro both remain in minor flood stage and are forecast to remain there until this weekend. River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Escambia River near Century and Choctawhatchee River near Bruce. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 10.97 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.