Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
...One Final Cool Start for the Next Few Days...Mostly Dry Conditions Courtesy of High Pressure...Elevated Wildfire Conditions Persist for Most of Eastern and Southern Peninsula; Locally Critical Possible...Dense Smoke Possible for South and South-Central Florida Due to National Wildfire in the Everglades...Breezy Winds Returning to the Panhandle and Spreading Into North Florida...Pleasant Conditions With Temperatures Returning to the Upper 60s to Middle 70s...Shower Activity Returns This Evening to the Panhandle Ahead of Approaching Cold Front...Patchy Fog Possible Early Thursday Morning for the Panhandle and Interior West-Central Florida...High Rip Current Risk Returns to the Panhandle With Onshore Winds...
Updated at 8:09 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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|
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Locally East-Central & Interior South FL Panhandle |
Panhandle & Interior West-Central FL |
Panhandle & East Coast W. Panhandle & First Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
One last cool start this morning for the Sunshine State today as temperatures will warm up nicely throughout the day. Frost Advisories throughout the Suwannee Valley and the Peninsula will expire by the early to mid-morning hours as temperatures steadily warm up. High pressure overhead will help bring mostly dry conditions across the state today, with a chance for brief showers along the Emerald Coast this afternoon (5-10% chance of rain). Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Peninsula, especially within East-Central and South Florida as relative humidity values will fall near and below critical thresholds (15-35%) this afternoon. This will continue to lead to elevated wildfire conditions, with locally critical conditions possible. Breezier wind gusts of 15-25 mph will develop across the Panhandle, then spread into the rest of North Florida by the late afternoon with the next cold front approaching. High temperatures will return to the upper 60s to middle 70s this afternoon across the state.
As the next cold front approaches from the west later this evening, and through the next couple of days, shower activity will increase along Panhandle with the help of southerly winds (15-30% chance of rain). Elsewhere across the state, mostly dry conditions can be expected to continue. Instances of patchy fog may be possible across the Panhandle and interior portions of West Florida early Thursday morning due to increased low-level moisture, but elevated winds may limit fog potential. Low temperatures will fall back into the 40s and 50s across the state, with coastal portions of the Panhandle and Southeast Florida reaching the lower 60s.
Rip Currents: Winds will shift out of the south to southwest today leading to a high risk for rip currents returning for much of the Panhandle. Lingering ocean swells off the East Coast will continue to create a mostly high risk for beaches. West Coast beaches have returned to a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Elevated surf of 2-4’ can be expected for nearly all beaches across the state, with most West Coast beaches seeing wave heights near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe and Miami-Dade County, with very low concentrations collected along Bay County. (valid 2/13/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: One last cool start to the mornings, but temperatures will warm up nicely into the 60s and 70s today. Mostly dry conditions can be expected to linger throughout the state as high pressure remains overhead. Relative humidity values will recover today; however, interior regions of the eastern Peninsula and South Florida will continue to see relative humidity values near and below critical thresholds (15-35%). Southerly winds along the Panhandle and the West Coast will help to keep relative humidity levels above critical thresholds, and will help to bring isolated to widely scattered showers to the Panhandle today. Breezier wind gusts will return today across the Panhandle then spread into the rest of North Florida late this afternoon as another frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Wind gusts for North Florida will reach upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon. Dense smoke will be possible at times across South Florida due to the ongoing National Wildfire in the Everglades. Some areas of patchy fog may develop along the Panhandle and West Florida early Thursday morning, but elevated winds could limit fog potential. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 82 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,624 acres.
Drought (2/19/26): Yet another potent cold front passed through the state this past Sunday (2/15) bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to much of North and Central Florida. Rainfall totals, however, were simply not enough to alleviate much of the drought and further drought expansion or degradation was seen in this week’s latest Drought Monitor outlook. The heaviest rainfall from this cold front was found across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with widespread totals between 0.5-1.5” and localized amounts upwards of 3”. Still, much of the Panhandle and Big Bend remain between 2-4” below normal in rainfall over the past 30 days. As such, expansion of the extreme (level 3 of 4) drought into the remainder of Flagler County and northern Volusia County along the East Coast, as well as all the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle down to the coastline, was made in this week’s outlook. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought is still in place and unchanged across the western Panhandle. Throughout Central Florida, rainfall totals ranged from 1-2” across the Nature Coast to nearly no appreciable rainfall down to Lake Okeechobee. Very little chances were found along the I-4 corridor where a moderate (level 1 of 4) drought remains. Additional expansion, however, of the extreme (level 3 of 4) drought was made across South-Central Florida in Highlands, Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Long-term rainfall departures (90 days) are between 2-4” for much of Central Florida, with East-Central Florida up to 7” in some locations. Nearly no appreciable rain fell over the past week across South Florida where extreme (level 3 of 4) drought has expanded across all interior Glades, Hendry, Collier, Monroe, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties. Coastal Southeast Florida remains under a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought. Over the next week, very little rainfall is expected with only a few scattered showers across North Florida. Rainfall totals will likely remain below 0.5” with continued drought deterioration.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 491 (+1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.29 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.25 feet below normal for this time of year.
