Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, December 1, 2025
...Coastal Showers this Morning Along the Panhandle and Treasure Coast...Frontal System to Approach from the West and Bring Much Needed Rainfall Later Today...Mixture and Sunshine and Cloud Cover Across the State...Isolated Showers Possible for the Panhandle, But Greater Chance for Widespread Rainfall Later this Evening and Overnight...Embedded Strong to Severe Possible Along the Coastal Panhandle Tonight and Early Tuesday Morning; Damaging Wind Gusts and Isolated Tornado or Two...Localized Heavy Rainfall for the Panhandle, But Mostly Beneficial...Patchy Fog Possible for West-Central and South Florida Early Tuesday Morning...Choppy Surf and Onshore Winds to Create Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents...Official End of Hurricane Season...
Updated at 9:34 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Coastal Panhandle & North Florida (Overnight) Iso. Space and Treasure Coast |
Coastal Panhandle (Overnight) | Coastal Panhandle (Overnight) |
North Florida |
Western Panhandle | West-Central & South Florida |
W. Panhandle, First Coast & Southeast FL E. Panhandle and Space Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
North Florida: Brief coastal showers have developed this morning along the Panhandle as moisture associated with a warm front continues to push northward throughout the state. This warm front gradually lifting northward from the gulf waters today will help to keep conditions mostly cloudy for North Florida, and may bring an isolated shower or two through the afternoon hours. A greater chance for showers and possible embedded thunderstorms will come later this afternoon and mostly this evening (30-60% chance of rain). As the frontal system approaches from the west along the Gulf Coast states and eventually moves into the Southeastern U.S. states this evening and overnight, widespread rainfall will spread onshore and inland across the Panhandle, then eventually the Big Bend (75-near 100% chance of rain). Depending on where the warm front sets up in proximity to the center of the low, embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coastal Panhandle. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather through the early morning hours on Tuesday as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning, localized damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), an isolated tornado or two and locally heavy rainfall. While this rainfall is needed throughout the area, the ongoing drought conditions will help to limit the flash flood risk. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding where the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur, and where locally heavy downpours over urban and low-lying areas could produce a localized flash flooding risk. Widespread wetting rains will gradually shift and extend eastward into the Big Bend and Northeast Florida near sunrise Tuesday morning. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s today given increased cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s to lower 60s overnight.
Central & South Florida: Patchy to locally dense fog this morning will lift by the mid-morning hours across Central and South Florida. Overall, a mixture of sunshine and cloud cover can be expected throughout the day. Onshore winds along the eastern coastline will help to bring isolated to widely scattered showers onshore and inland today across the Peninsula (15-35% chance of rain). An embedded thunderstorm or rumble of thunder may develop just offshore along the coast this afternoon. As the frontal system moves along the Gulf Coast states and into the Southeast U.S., there will be a chance for sprinkles or isolated shower to push onshore along the Nature Coast and West Coast this evening and into the overnight hours (15-30% chance of rain). Another round of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible early Tuesday morning across West-Central and South Florida. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to middle 80s this afternoon. Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s and lower 70s overnight.
Today marks the official end of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season fell within predicted ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms, 5 of those became hurricanes and 4 of those were major hurricanes (Erin, Humberto and Melissa). 2025 tied for the second most category 5 hurricanes on record in a single season, only trailing the 2005 season. Tropical Storm Chantal was the only named storm to make landfall in the continental U.S., and for the first time since 2015 there were no landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. There was lull within activity from August 24-September 16, which is within the peak climatological period of the Atlantic hurricane season. 1992 was the last time where this occurred.
Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane and had the 3rd lowest pressure for an Atlantic system with a pressure of 892mb and the strongest category 5 landfall on record.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Choppy surf and onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Choppy surf of 2-4’ can be expected for numerous beaches across the state, except for the West Coast which will continue to see wave heights near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations along Bay and Gulf counties along the coastlines. Low concentrations were observed offshore from Franklin county. Background conditions will were observed along coastal Pinellas and Lee County.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Moisture continues to pull northward with the help of an associated warm front helping to keep relative humidity values across the state above critical thresholds. Scattered to widespread rainfall chances will return across Panhandle and then into North Florida this evening and overnight, bringing some much needed rainfall. This rainfall with help with drought conditions, but won’t be enough to completely remove it. Thunderstorms embedded within will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Patchy to locally dense fog will be possible overnight and early into Tuesday morning across West-Central and South Florida. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 62 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 621 acres.
Drought:The past week was almost entirely dry across the entire Sunshine State as temperatures warmed to above seasonable levels. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor and further degradation was seen. Across South Florida, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced across interior Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties with expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) towards the Southeast coastline. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was also introduced across Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades county, as well as around Lake Okeechobee where rainfall departures from the past month have neared 2-3 inches. Moderate Drought remains in place across much of West-Central Florida with further expansion into Polk county and northward along the entire Nature Coast. Rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches across West-Central Florida. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) have remained in place, with expansion southeastward of the Extreme Drought into much of Suwannee, Columbia, and western Baker County. Severe Drought was also added to much of the Forgotten Coast along Taylor and Dixie counties. An Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) was introduced to northern Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where streamflows have reached very low levels, vegetation has become very dry, and agricultural impacts have worsened. This is the first Exceptional Drought seen in the state of Florida since February 2012. Long-term rainfall departures continue to decline across the Panhandle, and significant rainfall is not expected over the next week as temperatures remain above seasonable levels. As such, worsening drought conditions are expected over the next week across much of the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 529 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 46 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger). Calhoun and Leon counties both have KBDI values over 700.
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the eastern Panhandle today as beneficial rainfall returns. Scattered to widespread rainfall will spread onshore and inland from the gulf waters and across the Panhandle late this afternoon and throughout the evening/overnight hours. While this rainfall will be helpful to help put a dent into drought conditions, locally heavy downpours could still produce localized flash flood concerns for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals of 1-2” are anticipated, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” possible closer towards the coast with repeated downpours.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.66 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.18 feet below normal for this time of year.
