Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, June 21, 2026
...Scattered to Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Throughout North Florida Today... Flooding Concerns Remain Elevated Given Recent Days of Heavy Rainfall... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked Across Panhandle... Minor to Locally Moderate River Flooding Ongoing Across the Western Panhandle... Scattered Sea Breeze Activity Throughout the Peninsula, Focused Along the I-95 Corridor... Any of Today's Activity Could Become Strong to Severe with Frequent Lightning and Gusty Winds...Heat and Humidity to Continue Across Peninsula Today...Widespread Feels-Like Temps in the 100s Today... High Risk of Rip Currents Across Panhandle Beaches...Low Risk of Rip Currents Elsewhere...
Updated at 9:18 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Florida Panhandle East Coast West Coast
|
|
Iso. Statewide |
Iso. West-Central FL |
West-Central FL Peninsula |
FL Panhandle |
|
Panhandle Rest of Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Rinse-and-repeat for today’s weather pattern as a largely similar distribution of showers and thunderstorms to yesterday looks to develop across the state. Today’s activity across the Florida Panhandle will be widespread (60-80% chance of rain) with a nearly stationary frontal boundary still positioned over the Deep South. Contrary to typical summer-time patterns, storm activity will likely peak in the late-morning to early-afternoon hours before the front’s parent upper-level trough begins pulling away from the state later this afternoon, reducing convective coverage. Current radar imagery is already tracking scattered semi-organized clusters of eastward-moving thunderstorms across portions of the Western and Central Panhandle this morning. This activity will continue to spread eastward this morning and expand in coverage and intensity as daytime heating increases. Forecast rainfall accumulations across the Panhandle are generally between 1-2”, however, given highly sensitive soils due to last week’s flash floodings, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is current outlooked across the entire Florida Panhandle. A more seasonable pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Florida Peninsula. Prevailing Southwesterly/Westerly flow will focus activity to the eastern half of the Peninsula this afternoon, where a medium chance (40-70%) of rain is expected. Although there is no organized risk for severe weather with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a few locally strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) being the primary hazards.
Early-morning cloud coverage and showers and storms will limit daytime high temperatures across North Florida to the upper 80s today. Elsewhere across the Peninsula, afternoon high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s. Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach the lower to middle 100-degrees throughout the Peninsula, though they are expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly dissipate after sunset today, with only and isolated chance (15-30%) chance for a lingering thunderstorm or two across the I-95 Corridor and across North Florida. All activity should dissipate or move offshore by midnight. Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Panhandle beaches. Diminishing surface flow yields a low risk for rip currents for all other Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf remain low today along all Panhandle shorelines, with waves expected be near 2-3’. All other statewide beaches can expected surf near 1-2’.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Pinellas and Hillsborough counties over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/19/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.
Fire Weather: Widespread swaths of rainfall are expected in the Panhandle later today, with seasonable patterns of daily showers and storms expected in the interior and eastern Peninsula. Any of today’s thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Have only kept locally sensitive wildfire conditions for portions of West-Central Florida where very little rain has fallen in recent days/weeks. Expected rainfall today/over the past few days should limit fire weather threat elsewhere beyond a generalized threat of lightning-based ignitions and gusty/erratic winds that come with typical summer thunderstorms. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 25,908 acres.
Drought (6/16/26): Very little to no changes were made to the drought across North Florida on this week’s update, with many areas keeping their drought category from last week’s update. Exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) remains across localized portions of the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) surrounding that. Throughout Central and South Florida, some reductions in the drought were observed across West-Central and interior South Florida. Some of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in these areas has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4), including in Collier, Hendry, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Coastal areas of Collier and mainland Monroe counties is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Some heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor has brought moderate drought conditions down to abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. All other remaining drought areas saw little to no change in this week’s update. Recent flash flooding over North Florida will likely promote more substantial drought improvements across these areas in next week’s update, with more seasonable distributions of showers and storms across the Peninsula likely providing some localized categorical improvements. Limited observed rainfall across the Western half of the peninsula will likely lead to degradations in the drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 355 (-27) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 8 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A frontal boundary remains draped across the Deep South, providing another round of widespread showers and storms across the Panhandle. Forecast rainfall accumulations are generally between 1-2”, however, given highly sensitive soils due to last week’s flash floodings, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is current outlooked across the entire Florida Panhandle.
Riverine Flooding: Flash flooding over the past few days has prompted riverine responses across the Florida Panhandle. The following gauges are expected to reach or have already reached Minor flood stage: Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Escambia River near Century, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Yellow River at Milligan, Shoal River near Crestview, and the Choctawatchee River near Bruce-Ebro. The Blackwater River near Baker is now set to crest into Moderate flood stage this weekend. Flood Warnings have been issued for the Perdido River, Escambia River, Big Coldwater Creek, Blackwater River, Yellow River, and Shoal River. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.02 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.20 feet below normal for this time of year.
