Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, June 24, 2026
...Scattered Showers and Storms Across Interior Peninsula Today... Any Storms will be Accompanied by Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Torrential Downpours... Organized Cluster of Storms Will be Weakening as it Approaches Western Panhandle Tonight; Storm Cluster may Still Produce Localized Flash Flooding Tonight Over Highly Saturated Soils... Sight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding Across Western Panhandle Tonight... Highs in the Lower to Middle 90s Across Peninsula, Heat Indices in the Middle to Upper 100s... Cooler and Drier Conditions Across North Florida; Heat Indices in Middle to Upper 90s... Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Across Panhandle Beaches...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Across Northeast FL Beaches... Low Risk of Rip Currents Elsewhere...
Updated at 9:38 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Western Panhandle Interior Peninsula
|
|
Iso. Western Panhandle & Interior South FL |
Iso. Peninsula |
Peninsula Statewide |
Western Panhandle |
|
Panhandle Northeast FL Rest of Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be confined to the Peninsula today as a post-frontal environment characterized by unseasonably dry and “cool” air will limit rain chances to near-zero across North Florida today. Storm activity will be maximized across the Interior Peninsula (40-60% chance) as weak flow will allow sea breeze boundaries from both coasts to push inland and collide over the Central portions of the Peninsula. No organized risk of severe weather is expected across any of the Peninsula’s storms today, however as always, any routine summer-time thunderstorms may become locally strong to severe capable of producing frequent lightning and locally damaging gusts (40-60mph). Additionally, while no organized risk of flash flooding is currently expected, slow storm-motion under weak flow may lead to isolated instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage locations.
While most of North Florida will be dry today, the far Western Panhandle may be an exception to this. Model guidance is tracking the possibility of a semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms to develop over the South-Central U.S. and dive southeast later this afternoon/evening. As this complex pushes southeast towards our Western Panhandle counties, it will be experiencing an increasingly dry environment courtesy of last night’s frontal passage and thus will likely be weakening. The degree of weakening is quite uncertain at this time, with hi-res guidance depicting a range of possible outcomes from a complete dissipation to very-little weakening. Regardless, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across our Western Panhandle counties to reflect the conditional risk of heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils. While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with within our Florida Counties from this cluster of storms, these storms may still become locally strong to severe, being especially prone to strong downdrafts containing damaging wind gusts driven by the unseasonably dry column.
High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across North Florida, to the lower to middle 90s across the Peninsula. A notable gradient in afternoon high feels-like temperatures will be present across the state today, as dry air across North Florida will limit feels-like temperatures to the middle to upper 90s. The Peninsula, where seasonably moist air is still present, will see afternoon high feels-like temperatures soar into the lower to middle 100s today.
Tonight, any lingering showers and thunderstorms across the Peninsula will dissipate or push offshore after dusk (25-40% chance of rain). A medium chance of rain (30-40%) remains across the Western Panhandle tonight, reflecting the preciously discussed possibility of an approaching overnight thunderstorm complex. Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide tonight.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents is in effect for most Panhandle beaches today. A low risk persists for all other beaches statewide outside of a stretch of moderate risks across Northeast Florida. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf heights remain limited for all beaches today. The highest surf heights will be around 2-3’ across the Western Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches. Surf heights of 1-2’ are expected for most other beaches today.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Pinellas and Hillsborough counties over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/19/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.
Fire Weather: Dry air has filtered across North Florida following last night’s frontal passage. Minimum relative humidities will still remain above critical thresholds today, and with weak winds and highly saturated soils, the overall wildfire threat is minimal across these regions. Scattered showers and storms are expected across the Peninsula today with a focus on Interior and Southwestern regions. Any thunderstorm could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. Much drier conditions have developed locally over West-Central Florida where a predominate westerly flow has kept thunderstorm activity off to the east. As such, locally sensitive wildfire conditions have developed here amidst ongoing extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Have expanded the area of locally sensitive wildfire conditions to include most of the Florida Peninsula as well to reflect the threat of lightning-based ignitions today and the uptick of fire activity seen across these areas in recent days. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 75 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 31,158 acres.
Drought (6/16/26): Very little to no changes were made to the drought across North Florida on this week’s update, with many areas keeping their drought category from last week’s update. Exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) remains across localized portions of the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) surrounding that. Throughout Central and South Florida, some reductions in the drought were observed across West-Central and interior South Florida. Some of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in these areas has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4), including in Collier, Hendry, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Coastal areas of Collier and mainland Monroe counties is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Some heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor has brought moderate drought conditions down to abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. All other remaining drought areas saw little to no change in this week’s update. Recent flash flooding over North Florida will likely promote more substantial drought improvements across these areas in next week’s update, with more seasonable distributions of showers and storms across the Peninsula likely providing some localized categorical improvements. Limited observed rainfall across the Western half of the peninsula will likely lead to degradations in the drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 330 (+11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 9 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A weakening cluster of thunderstorms will be diving southeastward towards the Western Panhandle later today/into tonight. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across our Western Panhandle counties to reflect the conditional risk of heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils. This risk is highly dependent on the degree of weakening that occurs, with the slight risk reflecting the upper end of possible rainfall accumulations assuming minimal weakening occurs.
Riverine Flooding: Flash flooding late last week and weekend has prompted riverine responses across the Florida Panhandle. The following gauges are expected to reach or are currently in minor flood stage: Escambia River near Century, Shoal River near Crestview, and the Choctawatchee River near Bruce-Ebro. Numerous other gauges are in or forecast to reach Action Stage (bank-full). River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Escambia River, Shoal River, and Choctawhatchee River. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 10.97 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.29 feet below normal for this time of year.
