Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Breezy conditions will maintain elevated surf and dangerous swimming conditions to many Florida coastlines. A high risk of rip currents can be expected for all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with low risk conditions residing along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Marine conditions will remain elevated along the Florida East Coast today, with surf returning to 3-5’ for most beaches. A few waves upwards of 6’ cannot be ruled out for Treasure Coast beaches. Florida Panhandle beaches can expect waves near 2-3’ this afternoon, with West Coast beaches around 1’.

 

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in and offshore Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County (valid 3/27/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida today.

 

Fire Weather: Moist onshore flow around an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to bring plentiful low-level moisture to much of North Florida this afternoon. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon throughout the Big Bend and Northeast Florida. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds which may lead to new ignitions or erratic spread. Locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions are expected, however, given the ongoing drought. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph look to develop through the day throughout the Florida Peninsula, with wind gusts of 25-30 mph likely along the immediate coast and Southeast Florida. Tonight, areas of patchy to locally dense fog are possible throughout the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida. Fog may significantly reduce visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 75 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,961 acres.

 

Drought (4/2/26): Over the past week, mostly dry conditions were observed throughout much of the state which has resulted in very little improvements on the latest Drought Monitor update. In fact, outside of immediate coastal Southeast Florida where a cold front brought widespread rainfall of 1-3” this past weekend (3/28-3/29), there was no beneficial rainfall to be found. The last remaining area of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) across the western Panhandle has been upgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) due to recent dryness and worsening soil moisture levels. One of the biggest changes this week was additional expansion of the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend, Suwannee River Valley, and eastern Panhandle. Now, additional areas of Columbia, Baker, Union, Lafayette, Wakulla, and Jackson counties are under this level 4 of 4 drought. Over the past 6 months (October 1 – March 31), Tallahassee has seen record dryness with a total rainfall departure over that time reaching 13.51 inches below normal. Areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have remained throughout the rest of Northeast Florida and North-Central Florida, including a new area along the coast of Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties. Jacksonville has also seen record dryness over the past 6 months, with the rainfall deficit of 9.98 inches below normal in that time. The area of moderate to severe drought along the I-4 corridor continues to shrink as well as the area rainfall deficits continue to worsen. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) also persists across much of South Florida, outside of the immediate Southeast coastline where rainfall has brought some drought relief. Throughout the state, streamflows remain significantly low and soil moisture levels deep into the ground have also worsened with water management districts statewide remaining under some water shortage advisory or warning. Looking ahead, a widespread drenching rainfall is not expected over the next week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though afternoon spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible each day. Any areas that see the heaviest activity could see a quick 1-3” of rain, though will not be enough to put much of a dent in the drought. There remains some uncertainty regarding a possible Gulf low-pressure system developing next Tuesday, which could bring some beneficial rains to the state. Trends in that system will continue to be monitored.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 492 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 39 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida, some of which could be locally heavy and capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rainfall. Areas of ponding of water and nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.

 

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.01 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.28 feet below normal for this time of year.