Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, June 19, 2026
...More Heavy Rainfall in Store Across North Florida...Rainfall Accumulations Around 1-2"...Highly Saturated Soils From Recent Flash Floods Prompt More Flooding Concerns Today...Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) For Flash Flooding Today Across Northwestern Panhandle...Marginal (Level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk Across Rest of North Florida and Southeast Florida...High Instability Today Will Lead to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Capable of Damaging Wind Gusts...Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather for Northe Florida and Interior and Eastern Florida Peninsula...Heat and Humidity to Continue Across Peninsula Today...Widespread Feels-Like Temps in the Middle 100s Today...High Risk of Rip Currents Across Panhandle and West Coast Beachs...Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Elsewhere...
Updated at 9:30 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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North FL I-95 Corridor & South FL Rest of State
|
|
Iso. Statewide |
Iso. West-Central FL |
Peninsula Locally Panhandle |
Northwestern Panhandle Central & Eastern Panhandle Northeast & Southeast FL |
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Panhandle Space & Treasure Coast Sun Coast Gold Coast First Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
One more round of very heavy rainfall is anticipated across North Florida today as remnant moisture will promote the development of numerous thunderstorms late this morning / early this afternoon. Today’s activity will likely take the form of a broken line of southward moving storms. While the threat of training/back-building storms are much lower than yesterday, some of these storms may be very prolific rain-makers – up to 3”/hr per the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Furthermore, these storms will be occurring over highly saturated soils from previous day’s flash flooding events. So, while the overall forecast rainfall accumulations will be much less than yesterday’s event (between 1-2” across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida), much less rain will be required to trigger isolated to scattered instanced of flash flooding. For these reasons, the WPC has outlooked a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding across portions of the Northwest Panhandle, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) outlooked across the rest of the Panhandle and Northeast Florida. A Flood Watch remains in effect across the Western Panhandle to reflect these threats. In addition to the heavy rainfall potential, strong atmospheric destabilization across North Florida will promote the risk for isolated severe weather with some of today’s storms. The primary hazards will be isolated damaging winds (40-60mph). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather outlooked across North Florida.
Across the southern half of the state, another day of very hot and humid conditions is in store. Heat indexes will once again climb into the middle 100s for most of the peninsula. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire Florida Peninsula south of Ocala. Moisture associated with Arthur’s remains is steadily eroding some of the mid-level dry air that was previously suppressing convection. Surface flow will be largely out of the South/Southwest, which will focus afternoon thunderstorm development to South Florida and the I-95 Corridor (40-70% chance of rain). Storms across the Peninsula will also likely be efficient rain makers, and thus the WPC has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across SE Florida. Additionally, a strongly unstable atmosphere will promotes the possibility for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of producing damaging winds (40-60mph) across much of the interior and eastern Peninsula, where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked.
Rainfall will likely linger across North Florida and along the East Coast during the early overnight hours before dissipating or moving offshore by midnight (20-50% chance of rain). Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds along the Panhandle and West Coast today has resulted in a moderate to high risk for rip currents. A low to moderate risk is expected for the East Coast of Florida. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf remains elevated at around 3-5’ across the Western Panhandle, with surf heights closer to 2-3’ across the Eastern Panhandle/Big Bend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for Westen Panhandle Beaches. Surf will be at around 1-2’ across all other Florida beaches today, with localized areas across Northeast Florida seeing surf heights closer to 2-3’.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Taylor County over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/12/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.
Fire Weather: Deep tropical moisture entrenched across the state of. Widespread swaths of rainfall are expected in the Panhandle later today, with seasonable patterns of daily showers and storms expected in the interior and eastern Peninsula. Any of today’s thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Have only kept locally sensitive wildfire conditions for portions of West-Central Florida where very little rain has fallen in recent days/weeks. Expected rainfall today/over the past few days should limit fire weather threat elsewhere beyond a generalized threat of lightning-based ignitions and gusty/erratic winds that come with typical summer thunderstorms. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 38 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 24,227 acres.
Drought (6/16/26): Very little to no changes were made to the drought across North Florida on this week’s update, with many areas keeping their drought category from last week’s update. Exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) remains across localized portions of the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) surrounding that. Throughout Central and South Florida, some reductions in the drought were observed across West-Central and interior South Florida. Some of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in these areas has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4), including in Collier, Hendry, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Coastal areas of Collier and mainland Monroe counties is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Some heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor has brought moderate drought conditions down to abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. All other remaining drought areas saw little to no change in this week’s update. Recent flash flooding over North Florida will likely promote more substantial drought improvements across these areas in next week’s update, with more seasonable distributions of showers and storms across the Peninsula likely providing some localized categorical improvements. Limited observed rainfall across the Western half of the peninsula will likely lead to degradations in the drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 378 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 9 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Another round of heavy rainfall is expected today across North Florida. While these storms will not be as slow-moving or widespread as yesterday, they will be both very efficient rain-makers and be occurring over highly saturated soils. For these reasons, the WPC has outlooked a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding across portions of the Northwest Panhandle, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) outlooked across the rest of the Panhandle and Northeast Florida. A Flood Watch remains in effect across the Western Panhandle to reflect these threats. Today’s storms across the Peninsula will also likely be efficient rain makers, and thus the WPC has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across SE Florida.
Riverine Flooding: Flash flooding over the past few days has prompted riverine responses across the Florida Panhandle. The following gauges are expected to reach Minor flood stage in the coming days: Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Escambia River near Century, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Blackwater River near Baker, and Yellow River at Milligan. Flood Warnings have been issued for the Perdido River, Escambia River, Big Coldwater Creek, Blackwater River, and Yellow River. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.03 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.16 feet below normal for this time of year.
