Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
...Scattered Showers With Thunderstorms Near the West Coast to Continue Across Peninsula...Frontal System Making Its Way Through Peninsula...Breezy Wind Gusts Expected Across the State With Stronger Gusts Near Coastlines...Second Cold Front to Reinforce Dry and Cool Conditions...Rain Chances to Decline From Northwest to Southeast Thorugh Evening Hours and Tonight...Coolest Temperatures of the Season to Arrive...Feels-Like Temperatures In Upper 30s For Portions of Northern Panhandle by Sunrise Thursday Morning...High Risk for Rip Currents Across Gulf and West Coast; Moderate to High Along Numerous East Coast Beaches...Minor Coastal Flooding Along Much of West Coast and Florida Keys With Strong Onshore Winds and Elevated Surf...
Updated at 9:21 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Flash Flooding | River Flooding | Coastal Flooding | Freeze | Rip Currents |
| West-Central & Southwest Florida Coasts |
Withlacoochee near Holder & St. Johns at Astor Withlacoochee River at US041 |
Big Bend, Nature Coast, West-Central Florida Coast & Keys
|
|
Panhandle and West Coast & East-Central FL Southeast FL Northeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Yesterday’s frontal system has made its way to the Peninsula bringing isolated to scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, along the western Peninsula. The system’s cold front will continue to push through the I-4 corridor and southward through the rest of the Peninsula throughout the day bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms throughout the day (35-60% chance of rain). Lingering showers will be possible across portions of the northern Peninsula and Northeast Florida this afternoon as well. As the frontal system moves offshore towards the western Atlantic waters, rain chances will begin to decline from northwest to southeast and activity will become more isolated. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. A second cold front will make its way across the state behind the first system; however, this one will remain mostly dry and help to reinforce the dry and cooler air moving southward. Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph can be expected to develop across the state throughout the day, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph along the coastal Panhandle this afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 70s across North Florida and upper 70s to low 80s across Central and South Florida.
Rain chances will continue to decline through the evening and overnight hours as the front pushes offshore. A few isolated showers may linger overnight along portions of the Treasure Coast and through the Florida Keys overnight as the frontal system continues to move away from the Florida Coast (15-35% chance of rain). Much cooler conditions can be expected to move in overnight behind the second frontal boundary, and the coldest temperatures of the season will arrive within the next day or two. Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will continue through the overnight hours, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph possible near the coastlines and coastal waters.
Low temperatures will fall into the 40s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and 60s to low 70s across South Florida and the Keys overnight. With the breezy winds continuing overnight and cooler temperatures arriving, conditions will feel slightly cooler than they are across the I-10 corridor Thursday morning. Feels-like temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s will be possible near sunrise Thursday morning.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds and large ocean swells will create a high risk for rip currents across all Florida West Coast and Gulf Coast beaches. East Coast beaches will see a moderate to high risk for rip currents along several beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells of 3-5’ will linger across all Gulf and West Coast beaches through today in the wake of a passing cold front. Locally elevated breaking waves near 6’ within the surf zone could reach upwards of 6’ at times along portions of the Panhandle this afternoon. East Coast beaches will begin to see wave heights increase to 2-4’ for all beaches.
Red Tide has been observed in 74 samples collected from Florida’s Gulf Coast over the past week (as of 11/15). Background to medium concentrations were observed in and offshore of Pinellas County with low and medium concentrations in Hillsborough County, background to medium concentrations in Manatee County, background to medium concentrations in and offshore of Sarasota and Charlotte Counties, very low and medium concentrations in Lee County, and background and very low concentrations offshore of Collier County. Fish kills suspected to be related to red tide were reported offshore of Pinellas County and along Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties. Respiratory irritation suspected to be related to red tide was reported in Sarasota County.
Coastal Flooding: Elevated tides will linger along portions of the Florida Keys and allow for instances of minor coastal and saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect along portions of the Florida Keys. Strong onshore winds and elevated surf will allow for minor coastal flooding along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline near and during times of high tide through today. The highest water levels of near 2’ above normal will develop, especially along vulnerable Apalachee Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the entire Panhandle and Big Bend. Coastal Flood Statements extend along the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida coast due to strong onshore winds associated with a cold front moving eastward creating instances of minor coastal flooding.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: Drier conditions will return across the Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day as a dry cold front moves through. Relative humidity values across the state will remain above critical thresholds during the afternoon as a frontal system continues to move across the state. Isolated to scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Peninsula today as the frontal system continues to make its way southeastward. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Breezy wind gusts outside of thunderstorms will reach 15-20 mph across the state, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph along the Panhandle coastline this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 8 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 20 acres.
Drought: Little to no rainfall and continued above-normal temperatures over the past week have combined to worsen dryness and drought across North Florida on this week’s Drought Monitor update (11/14). Severe Drought conditions have shifted eastward and expanded, now covering northern and central portions of Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton Counties. Moderate Drought Conditions have greatly expanded over the past week and now span across the entire Panhandle and across the Western Big Bend. Similarly, Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded and now reach through the Eastern Big Bend and across the Northern Peninsula. Above normal rainfall outlooked across Florida over the next week or so may help to improve or slow the worsening of drought conditions across the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 367 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida Counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: Minor to moderate riverine flooding is ongoing for portions of the Withlacoochee River (in West-Central Florida) and the St. Johns River in response to Hurricane Milton. Moderate flooding is ongoing along the and the Withlacoochee River near Holder at SR-200 and St. Johns River at Astor. Minor Flooding continues along the Withlacoochee River at US-41 Dunnellon, but this forecast point is forecast to fall below flood stage late today or very early Thursday morning. Water levels along the St. Johns River at Astor remain near steady and fluctuate slightly between minor and moderate flood stage. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 16.01 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.09 feet above normal for this time of year.
