Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, March 24, 2026
...Cold Front Separates Weather Story Between North Florida and Florida Peninsula...Scattered Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Develop Along Florida's First Coast (45-75% Chance of Rain)...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...Wind Advisories for Coastal Northeast Florida; Wind Gusts Reaching 35-45 MPH...Tricky High Temperature Forecast North of I-4...Dry and Sunny Day for the Florida Peninsula...Shower and Thunderstorm Activity May Shift South Along Space Coast Tonight (30-60% Chance of Rain)...Pockets of Fog and Low Clouds Possible Through Southern Florida Peninsula...Dangerous Beach and Marine Conditions Arrive to Florida East Coast...
Updated at 9:27 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Northeast Florida |
Locally Western Panhandle & South Florida Statewide |
|
Iso. Northeast Florida |
Southwest Florida Central & South Florida
|
Northeast Florida Florida East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A cold front, currently situated south of the I-10 corridor, will largely separate the weather story for North Florida and the Florida Peninsula today.
North Florida: Scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms develop along Florida’s First Coast (45-75% chance of rain) along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rainfall rates will be possible within shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening, especially along the coastal and urban Northeast Florida corridor where computer models are hinting at isolated pockets of 2-4” of rain. While certainly a welcomed sight to the drought-stricken region, nuisance ponding water cannot be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorm activity, a squeeze play between our frontal system and a building area of high pressure will yield windy conditions to Northeast Florida. Wind Advisories are in effect until 8:00 PM for frequent wind gusts of 35-45 mph along coastal Nassau and Duval Counties. While not nearly as potent as last week’s frontal system, the cold front will lead to quite a tricky temperature forecast for North Florida communities as many high temperatures may be realized this morning! The combination of cooler and drier air as well a thick cloud deck developing north of I-4 will likely cap our high temperatures in the 60s east of US-231 (maybe at the 70-degree mark for areas closer to the Apalachicola River). Rain chances gradually expand to additional portions of North Florida and the Space Coast tonight (30-60% chance of rain), with low temperatures dropping into the 50s.
Florida Peninsula: To the south of the I-4 corridor, another dry and mostly sunny day can be expected with afternoon high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s. Rain chances associated with the aforementioned cold front may sneak southward along the Florida Space Coast tonight (25-45% chance of rain); otherwise, near-zero rain chances expected for the next 24-hour period. Low-level moisture will slowly reintroduce itself to the southern Florida Peninsula, with areas of fog and low clouds possible tonight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures tonight remain mild in the 60s.
Rip Currents: Windy onshore flow will yield a high risk of rip currents for all Northeast Florida beaches today, with a moderate risk extending through the Space and Treasure Coasts. Moderate rip current conditions continue for most Florida Panhandle beaches, and a low risk persists along the Northwest Florida and West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: While wave heights remain at 1-2’ along the Florida Gulf Coast, northerly to northeasterly winds quickly reintroduce dangerous beach and marine conditions along the Northeast Florida Coast today. High Surf Advisories will go into effect today until early Wednesday afternoon for breaking waves of 6-8’ within the surf zone at Nassau, Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler County beaches. The long-period ocean swell will migrate southward along the Florida East Coast this evening and tonight, bringing wave heights of 4-6’ to all Atlantic beaches by Wednesday morning.
Red Tide was not observed statewide over the past week (valid 3/20/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A slight pattern change can be expected, courtesy of a weak frontal boundary moving through North Florida this morning. Improving relative humidity values can be expected across much of North and Central Florida as rain chances increase through the forecast period; however, dry conditions persist along the western Florida Panhandle and southern Florida Peninsula today, with relative humidity values falling to near critical thresholds (30-45%) this afternoon. While the breezy to windy conditions will remain concentrated over Northeast Florida, prolonged drought and extremely dry soils/vegetation will maintain a sensitive to locally elevated wildfire threat. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog can be expected tonight throughout the southern Florida Peninsula; a further reduction in visibility can be expected where fog develops near any ongoing wildfires or burns. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 78 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,888 acres.
Drought (3/19/26): Very little changes were made to this week’s Drought Monitor update, even despite much of the Sunshine State seeing beneficial wetting rains earlier in the period. As previously mentioned, the rainfall associated with the potent springtime cold front helped Florida locations in the near-term, as observed in improved KBDI values; however, observed rainfall totals were still not enough to alleviate long-term drought and dry soils/vegetation. Widespread severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues nearly statewide, with the largest change occurring along the northern reaches of the Suwannee River. Exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought has been introduced over eastern Madison, Northern Gilchrist, western Suwannee, and Hamilton counties; portions of the Florida-Georgia state line saw worsening soil moisture and precipitation deficits and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March. Very heavy rain fell in parts of Miami-Dade County, resulting in some improvements to drought conditions, though the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 452 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 26 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Locally heavy rainfall rates will be possible within shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening along the Northeast Florida coastal and urban corridors; while certainly a welcomed sight to the drought-stricken region, instances of nuisance ponding water and flooding cannot be ruled out. Isolated pockets of 2-4” of rainfall look to accompany showers and thunderstorms today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.04 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.33 feet below normal for this time of year.
