Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
... Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Throughout Much of the State Today... Locally Strong to Severe Storms Possible Along the I-95 Corridor... Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours the Primary Hazards... Isolated Chance for Flash Flooding Outlooked Along the East Coast... Showera and Thunderstorms Linger Through the Evening and Overnight Hours Before Pushing Offshore... Highs in the 70s in North Florida, 80s and 90s in Central and South Florida... Feels-like Temperatures Set to Exceed 100-degrees Across Southwest Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for East Coast and Panhandle Beaches... Surf Increases Along the East Coast Today to 3-5 Feet...
Updated at 8:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally South-Central FL I-95 Corridor Rest of State |
East-Central FL |
Locally Central & Southeast FL |
Locally (From Lightning) |
Locally Southwest FL |
I-95 Corridor |
Locally I-4 Corridor & Western Panhandle |
Northeast FL East Coast & Panhandle West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A wet and rainy day is expected throughout much of the state as a cold front slides southward through the Sunshine State today. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning, and additional activity is expected to develop across the Peninsula as the front pushes southward into the state later today (70-90% chance of rain). A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked across Central and Southeast Florida this afternoon for the development of a few locally strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary hazards with these thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Additionally, ample tropical moisture will support locally heavy downpours which could lead to a quick 2-3” of rain in any areas that see a slow-moving heavy thunderstorm. The ongoing drought will limit flood potential, though a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked along the I-95 corridor today for instances of localized street flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor-drainage locations.
High temperatures will remain in the 70s throughout North Florida today due to abundant cloud cover. Highs will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s in Central and South Florida, with feels-like temperatures approaching the lower 100s in Southwest Florida. Wildfire danger will remain very low today given relative humidities well above critical thresholds, though thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening across the Big Bend and Peninsula before slowly pushing eastward and offshore (45-75% chance of rain). Low temperatures will fall into the 60s in North Florida with 70s throughout Central and South Florida. Instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out along the I-4 corridor and the western Panhandle by daybreak Wednesday.
Rip Currents: Increasing surf will bring a high risk for rip currents to all Northeast Florida beaches today. A moderate risk is expected for most Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches, with a low risk persisting for the West Coast and Southeast Florida. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas will begin to build again across First and Space Coast beaches with the frontal passage today. Waves will reach 3-5’ this afternoon, surging southward to include the Treasure Coast overnight. Waves will also increase along Panhandle beaches today and tonight, with surf of 2-4’. Waves will remain near 1-2’ for all West Coast and South Florida beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Bay, and Sarasota counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/8/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Wildfire danger is expected to be low today given relative humidities above critical thresholds and winds generally light and below 15-20 mph. Some winds gusts upwards of 20-25 mph cannot be ruled out across North Florida this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning throughout the state today which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. Areas of patchy dense fog may also develop across Central Florida and the western Panhandle before daybreak Wednesday, which could lead to significantly reduced visibilities in and around active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 58 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 28,955 acres.
Drought (5/5/26): No improvements to the drought were made on this weeks latest update, with last weekends rainfall across the Panhandle and Big Bend doing little more than stabilizing the current drought situation. Rainfall amounts tallied up to 2-3” across much of the Panhandle and Big Bend, though streamflows and soil moisture levels remain paltry and near or surpassing record lows. Lighter rainfall fell throughout the Peninsula, with spotty showers and storms bringing rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5” to most locations. Increasing temperatures with this lighter rain brought worsening drought conditions throughout the Peninsula. Expansion of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) was added across West-Central Florida, further inland to include all of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus counties. Some expansion eastward was also made throughout South Florida, closer to the Southeast metro region. Along the I-4 corridor in Central Florida, the area of moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) has shrunk even further. Extreme (level 3 of 4) to exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) was untouched throughout North Florida on this week’s update where rainfall deficits since the beginning of the water year (October 2025) are still near 12-18 inches across the area. 98% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 25% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. Looking ahead, some additional waves of showers and thunderstorms may bring beneficial rainfall to North Florida through the weekend and early next week. However, a widespread slow drenching rainfall is not expected.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 498 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 44 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked along the Florida East Coast today where ample tropical moisture will support locally heavy thunderstorms this afternoon. Although flooding concerns will be mitigated due to the ongoing drought, areas that see repeated rounds of slow-moving thunderstorms could receive upwards of 2-4” of rainfall in a short amount of time, which could promote nuisance flooding in urban and poor-drainage locations. Rainfall totals throughout the state today should remain below 1-2” for most, however localized areas of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: The Big Coldwater Creek near Milton and Shoal River near Crestview have reached Action Stage (bank-full) across the western Panhandle where recent heavy rainfall has fallen. Both are forecast to slowly fall back below Action Stage by the middle portions of this week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.41 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.95 feet below normal for this time of year.
