Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, May 22, 2026
... Active Memorial Day Weekend Expected with Daily Shower and Thunderstorm Chances... I-75 and I-10 Corridors the Focus for the Heaviest Rainfall... Any Thunderstorm Could Become Locally Strong with Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours... Hot and Humid Conditions with Afternoon Feels-like Temperatures Soaring into the 100s Throughout Northeast and Southwest Florida... Breezy Winds Gusting Upwards of 20-25 mph Along the East Coast... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches... Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) Largely Persists on this Week's Drought Monitor Update...
Updated at 9:55 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Western Panhandle Statewide
|
|
Iso. Statewide |
Locally Statewide (lightning) |
Locally Northeast & Southwest FL |
|
Locally Panhandle North FL |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy fog has developed over the Western Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises. High pressure over the Atlantic has continued its eastward march over the open Atlantic, now veering our surface flow to primarily out of the southeast today. For the peninsula, a largely rinse-and-repeat distribution of rain chances is expected today, with the highest chances once again in extreme Southwest Florida (30-50%) along . Additionally, high (70-90%) chances for rain is expected in the far Western Panhandle today as a series of upper-level disturbances are expected to swing through the region and provide a source of enhanced lift. While there is no organized risk of severe weather with any of today’s activity could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-3”, especially in the Western Panhandle if any corridors of training storms develop. As a result, The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for extreme western Escambia County today.
Wildfire danger will remain low today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds gusting upwards of 20 mph are expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula and Western Panhandle. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today in Southwest Florida, with more widespread coverage expected in the Western Panhandle. Any thunderstorms that develop may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida. Some localized areas may see feels-like temperatures that reach or exceed 100-degrees this afternoon.
Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity over the peninsula will shortly dissipate after sunset. Rounds of scattered showers and storms may continue overnight for the Western Panhandle as upper-level disturbances continue to swing through the region. Some patchy fog may develop throughout the Western Florida Panhandle tonight given the abundant low-level moisture, although this will likely be highly dependent on how today and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms develop/evolve. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk remains for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas increase today along the East Coast, with wave heights expected to be around 2-4’ this afternoon, with 2-3’ likely for Panhandle beaches. Beaches along the West Coast can expect surf less than 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia and Bay counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/15/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern today with southeasterly winds persisting across the state. These winds will bring gusts upwards of 20 mph throughout the Eastern Peninsula this afternoon. Steady increases in relative humidities over the last few days will keep values well above critical thresholds today and the overall wildfire danger lower. Still, ongoing drought will encourage at least sensitive conditions this afternoon throughout the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in Southwestern Florida, with more widespread coverage expected in the Western Panhandle. Showers and storms could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds capable of sparking new wildfires or reigniting existing ones. Areas of patchy fog may develop across the Florida Panhandle towards daybreak Saturday which can lead to significantly reduced visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 74 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,571 acres.
Drought (5/19/26): Some slight categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the state, though were very localized in nature. Across the western Panhandle, all of the remaining extreme drought has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) given rainfall of 2-3 inches over the past 10 days or so. Some of the exceptional drought over northern Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, and Jackson counties has been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) where some of the heaviest rainfall in the past 2 weeks has fallen (4-6” or more). Otherwise, the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) throughout the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley was untouched despite some rainfall over the past week. The longer-term rainfall deficits, dating back to the beginning of last Autumn, continue to drive the ongoing drought situation with many streams, creeks, rivers, and lakes well below normal in water levels. The extreme drought (level 3 of 4) throughout Northeast Florida, the I-75 corridor, and interior South Florida was largely untouched, except for slight reductions to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) in western Palm Beach and southern Osceola counties. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across portions of Central Florida around and just south of the Orlando metro region and along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 22% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. Looking ahead, a statewide drenching rainfall is not anticipated over the next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus throughout the interior Peninsula, I-75 corridor, and Panhandle which may bring localized drought relief and slow improvements. However, the long-term drought conditions are expected to largely continue.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 468 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 34 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in Southwest Florida this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be localized in nature here, with more locations seeing <0.5”. A more widespread threat for showers and storms are expected in the Western Panhandle today. While rainfall amounts should still largely be below 1” in this region, upwards of 2-3” of rain cannot be ruled out, especially in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours from training storms. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for extreme western Escambia County today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.31 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.89 feet below normal for this time of year.
