Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, November 27, 2025
...Showers and Thunderstorms to Linger for Portions of South Florida as Cold Front Continues to Push Through...Much Drier and Cooler Air Filtering Beind Cold Front...Elevated Wildfire Conditions for North Florida as Critical Relative Humidity Values Return...Pleasant Conditions for North and Central Florida...Cold Front to Push Offshore Tonight with Lingering Showers...Temperatures to Fall Near or Below Freezing Along I-10 Corridor...Freeze Warnings for Portions of Suwannee Valley; Patchy Frost or Light Freeze Possible for Portions of North Florida...Feels-Like Temperatures Dipping Into 20s Across North Florida Friday Morning; 30s for Portions of South Florida...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Statewide...
Updated at 9:33 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| South FL | Iso. South FL |
Locally North Florida West-Central FL |
Suwannee Valley I-10 Corridor |
Iso. Panhandle & West-Central FL Statewide |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A cold front will continue to push through Central and South Florida today bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout South Florida today (25-45% chance of rain). Embedded thunderstorms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds at times. Behind the cold front, much cooler and drier air will filter into the state. This drier air will cause relative humidity values to fall well below critical thresholds (15-25%) this afternoon throughout North Florida leading to an elevated wildfire threat. Wind gusts will increase to 15-20 mph as well, helping to contribute to the elevated wildfire threat given the ongoing drought conditions. Despite the elevated winds, conditions will remain below Red Flag criteria, but expanding extreme to exceptional drought throughout North Florida will create locally dangerous wildfire conditions. Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions can be expected.
High temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to middle 60s across North Florida, 70s throughout Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
The front will push off South Florida this evening and overnight, but it may bring a few additional rounds of shower activity before it does so (20-25% chance of rain). Cooler and drier air will push even further south tonight across the state behind the front.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s throughout the Suwannee Valley and 30s throughout North Florida, middle to upper 40s across Central Florida, lower 50s to lower 60s across South Florida and the middle 60s across the Keys. Freeze Warnings will go into effect overnight through sunrise Friday morning where temperatures as low as 29-degrees are possible. While Freeze Warnings have not been issued for other portions of North Florida, a light freeze or patchy frost will be possible throughout North Florida sunrise Friday morning. Feels-like temperatures throughout North Florida will fall into the middle to upper 20s and lower 30s and lower to middle 30s throughout interior portions of Central Florida early Friday morning.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Winds shifting out of the north to northwest will become breezy leading to a moderate to high risk for rip currents nearly statewide. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy winds behind a cold front will create ocean swells of 3-5’ for Central Florida beaches later this afternoon. All other beaches will see wave heights near 1-3’.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations along Bay and Gulf counties along the coastlines. Low concentrations were observed offshore from Franklin county. Background conditions will were observed along coastal Pinellas and Lee County.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Elevated wildfire conditions can be expected across North Florida today as relative humidity values fall below critical thresholds (15-25%) in the wake of yesterdays front. Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will also develop helping to elevate the wildfire threat as drought conditions continue to worsen. Drier air will also extend into portions of Central Florida creating sensitive wildfire conditions where drought continues to expand. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 55 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 460 acres.
Drought:The past week was almost entirely dry across the entire Sunshine State as temperatures warmed to above seasonable levels. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor and further degradation was seen. Across South Florida, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced across interior Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties with expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) towards the Southeast coastline. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was also introduced across Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades county, as well as around Lake Okeechobee where rainfall departures from the past month have neared 2-3 inches. Moderate Drought remains in place across much of West-Central Florida with further expansion into Polk county and northward along the entire Nature Coast. Rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches across West-Central Florida. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) have remained in place, with expansion southeastward of the Extreme Drought into much of Suwannee, Columbia, and western Baker County. Severe Drought was also added to much of the Forgotten Coast along Taylor and Dixie counties. An Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) was introduced to northern Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where streamflows have reached very low levels, vegetation has become very dry, and agricultural impacts have worsened. This is the first Exceptional Drought seen in the state of Florida since February 2012. Long-term rainfall departures continue to decline across the Panhandle, and significant rainfall is not expected over the next week as temperatures remain above seasonable levels. As such, worsening drought conditions are expected over the next week across much of the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average f for Florida is 525 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 44 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger). Calhoun and Leon counties both have KBDI values over 700.
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected across Florida. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front may bring locally heavy downpours for portions of South Florida. Rainfall totals are forecast to remain near 1”; however, locally higher totals upwards of 1-2” across coastal Southeast Florida.
Riverine Flooding: Water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns above Lake Harney remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning, though continue to slowly discharge. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.72 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.15 feet below normal for this time of year.
