Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, June 11, 2026
...Scattered to Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Today Along the I-75 Corridor... Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding in Southwest and West-Central Florida... Isolated to Scattered Chance Elsewhere Across the East Coast and North Florida... Any Storm Could Produce Lightning and Heavy Downpours... Seasonable Heat and Humidity Continues... Feels-like Temperatures in the Upper 90s to Lower 100s Today... Areas of Patchy Fog Across the Western Panhandle Tonight... Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 9:15 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
I-75 Corridor Peninsula & Eastern Panhandle
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|
|
Iso. Statewide |
Locally Statewide |
West-Central & Southwest FL
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Western Panhandle |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast & Southwest FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Another rinse and repeat day is expected today as high pressure remains in control across the Sunshine State. The positioning of the high today relative to Florida will promote easterly to southeasterly flow. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will begin to develop along the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland across the Peninsula this afternoon, with the focus down the spine of the Peninsula and along the I-75 corridor where the sea breezes will collide (45-70% chance of rain). A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across West-Central and Southwest Florida for a few locally strong thunderstorms that could produce locally heavy downpours and nuisance flooding in urban and poor-drainage locations. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher amounts upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out. There is no organized risk of severe weather with any of today’s activity, however a few strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds upwards of 40-50 mph, especially within West-Central and Southwest Florida. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening and early overnight hours along the I-75 corridor before dissipating around midnight (25-45% chance of rain).
Temperatures will continue a warming trend today, with highs climbing into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide. Much of the state will see afternoon feels-like temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s, the exception being the immediate East Coast where breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Lows will struggle to cool off tonight, only falling into the 70s to lower 80s statewide. Areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out by daybreak Friday across the western Panhandle.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds will increase along the Panhandle coast today where a moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all beaches. A moderate risk persists for most East Coast beaches as well. A low risk is expected for Southeast Florida and the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will be at around 2-4’ along the East Coast today, with West Coast and Panhandle beaches expecting surf heights of 1-2’ today.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations in Pinellas County over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/5/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Moisture continues to creep up across the state today alongside onshore easterly winds of 15-20 mph across the East Coast. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today, primarily along the I-75 corridor and across the central and western Peninsula. Any of today’s thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds. Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds today, however recent hot and dry weather combined with long-term drought conditions will promote at least locally sensitive wildfire conditions statewide, especially with the risk of lightning-based ignitions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 47 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,948 acres.
Drought (6/9/26): Additional improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update throughout much of the state with the recent wet pattern bringing beneficial rainfall. Across portions of the northern and far western Panhandle, areas of moderate drought have been reduced to abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions on this week’s update. These areas have seen rainfall departures 8-10 inches above normal since the beginning of May which has quickly brought an end to the worst drought conditions. Many areas in the severe drought (level 2 of 4) to exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida have also seen one or even two category drought reductions with recent rainfall over the past month. The areas of exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) are now found in localized pockets of the Suwannee River Valley and along the Forgotten Coast. The heaviest rainfall in the past 7 days was observed across South Florida and along the I-95 corridor. Many of these areas have also seen one category of drought reduction after receiving 1-3” of rainfall, or more, since last week. Localized pockets of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remain across West Central and interior South Florida due to the scattered nature of recent thunderstorm activity. In general, however, much of the I-75 corridor has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) with 30-day rainfall departures returning closer to normal or even above normal. Drought conditions along the immediate Southeast Coast continue to lessen with abnormally dry conditions (receding drought) expanding. 95% of Florida remains in at least moderate drought, with only ~4% of the state under exceptional drought – a 6% reduction in exceptional drought coverage compared to last week. Looking ahead, drier conditions will prevail throughout North Florida to end this week before a wetter pattern returns this weekend and to start next week. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to favor the Peninsula with daily sea breeze activity, which will bring additional drought improvements.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 416 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 15 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across West-Central and Southwest Florida today where slow-moving locally heavy thunderstorms may lead to nuisance flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor-drainage locations. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.13 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.02 feet below normal for this time of year.
