Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, February 27, 2026
...Scattered Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Spread Across North and Central Florida Today... Locally Strong Thunderstorms with Heavy Downpours and Gusty Winds Cannot be Ruled Out... Isolated Activity Expected South of Lake Okeechobee this Afternoon... Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Persist Across Interior South Florida with Lower Relative Humidities... Dense Smoke Likely to Pool Near Ongoing Wildfires or Burns; Especially Impactful for the Large Wildfire (National Wildfire) Burning Within Big Cypress...Periods of Reduced Visibility Likely Along Alligator Alley in Collier and Broward Counties... Areas of Patchy Fog Development Possible Across North and Interior South Florida Tonight... High Risk of Rip Currents for Florida Panhandle Beaches; Moderate Risk for East Coast and Nature Coast...
Updated at 10:01 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Central FL Statewide |
|
Iso. Statewide |
Locally Interior South FL Statewide |
Locally North & Interior South FL Central Florida |
Panhandle East Coast & Nature Coast Sun Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy dense fog across portions of the interior Peninsula will slowly lift and dissipate through the morning hours. Areas of fog mixed with wildfire smoke may lead to near zero visibility this morning. Some areas of dense fog may linger along the West-Central Florida coastline through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, a rather rainy start to the weekend is on tap for much of the Sunshine State as a few upper-level disturbances traverse a slow-moving frontal boundary over North Florida. Isolated to widely scattered showers across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning will increase in coverage throughout the morning and afternoon hours, sliding eastward towards Northeast Florida (75-90% chance of rain). Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will also begin to develop across Central Florida later this afternoon (50-75% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for severe weather, some of this activity could be locally strong and produce gusty winds (30-50mph), small hail, and locally heavy downpours. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out south of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon as well (25-40% chance of rain). High temperatures will climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s throughout North Florida and lower to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula.
Wildfire conditions will be relatively mitigated across North and Central Florida today where relative humidities remain well above critical thresholds, winds generally light, and rounds of showers and thunderstorms bring beneficial wetting rains. However, isolated lightning strikes from any thunderstorms could lead to new ignition of wildfires. Additionally, pockets of lower relative humidities across interior South Florida may keep the locally elevated wildfire conditions in place where a few active wildfires continue to burn.
Tonight, shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will begin to slowly drift towards Central Florida as the frontal boundary is slow to sag southward (50-80% chance of rain). Areas of low clouds and patchy fog may develop across North Florida tonight where lingering low-level moisture and warmer temperatures overlap. Additional areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out across interior South Florida tonight as well ahead of the main rain activity. Where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions. Lows will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and lower to middle 60s throughout the Peninsula.
Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected across all Florida Panhandle beaches with elevated surf and breezy onshore winds. A moderate risk is expected for most East Coast and Nature Coast beaches, meanwhile a low risk remains for all Sun Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Elevated surf can be expected along the Florida Panhandle today, with breakers in the surf zone reaching 3-4’ this afternoon. Elsewhere, wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions offshore of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties, with very low concentrations sampled along Bay County (valid 2/20/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Sensitive wildfire conditions are expected throughout much of the state where ongoing long-term drought persists. However, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread across much of North and Central Florida today which will bring beneficial wetting rainfall. Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds throughout the state, though pockets of lower relative humidities will remain across interior South Florida in the vicinity of the National Wildfire in the Big Cypress National Preserve which may promote additional wildfire ignition and spread. Areas of dense wildfire smoke will pool near and around active wildfires with light south winds this afternoon which may lead to reduced visibilities along Alligator Alley (I-75) in Collier and Broward counties. Lightning strikes can lead to additional wildfire ignitions in areas experiencing severe drought from isolated thunderstorms. Tonight, areas of fog and low clouds cannot be ruled out across South Florida ahead of the main rain activity; where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 92 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,379 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 496 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 34 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms may bring a few locally heavy downpours across portions of North and Central Florida through tonight. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 1”, though localized totals upwards of 3” cannot be ruled out in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.26 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.27 feet below normal for this time of year.
