Current Weather Outlook

Near the Windward Islands and Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system moves quickly westward at 20-25 mph into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during the middle portion of this week, where environmental conditions could become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could form over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 5-7 days, at least, but continues to be closely monitored.

*Formation chances through 48 hours... low…10%.

*Formation chances through 7 days... medium…60%.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds and ocean swells ahead of an approaching cold front will create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches. Nature Coast beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents while the rest of the West Coast continues to see a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.  

Marine Hazards: Wave heights will reach 3-5’ along the Florida East Coast given ongoing onshore winds and an approaching cold front. The cold front moving through the Panhandle and Big Bend will allow for breezy winds along the coast creating wave heights near 3-4’. The rest of the West Coast will see wave heights near 1-2’.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Hillsborough County in Southwest Florida. It was also observed at very low to medium concentrations in Gulf County in Northwest Florida. It was not observed in any samples along the Florida East Coast (10/3).

Coastal Flooding: Winds will begin to shift offshore for the Northeast Florida coast allowing for the St. Johns River to discharge at a better rate in the coming days. However, water levels are still forecast to reach 1.5-2’ above normally dry ground near and during times of high tide along portions of the tidal St. Johns River and coastal Northeast Florida which could lead to minor coastal flooding, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys and coastal Southeast Florida where isolated minor saltwater and coastal flooding is expected near and during times of high tide as the next New Moon approaches this coming weekend and early next week.

Fire Weather: Southerly to southeasterly winds across the state should help to bring moisture northward ahead of a cold front moving across the Panhandle today. Relative humidity values look to remain above critical thresholds across the state as moisture tries to overcome the dry conditions from the last few days. Scattered to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will move eastward across the Panhandle ahead of and along the cold front bringing needed rainfall to drought areas. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Drier conditions will continue throughout the rest of the state with some scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms developing this afternoon. A Burn Ban are currently in effect for Calhoun County. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 35 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 331 acres.  

Drought: The recent coastal storm from late last week and this past weekend brought plenty of rainfall to the Florida East Coast which has kept drought conditions in check along much of the I-95 corridor and interior Peninsula and have all but eliminated the abnormally dry (recovering drought) conditions that remained across coastal Martin, Palm Beach and Broward counties. Across the western Peninsula and I-75 corridor, rather significant monthly rainfall departures have begun to increase. For example, the Tampa Bay International Airport has only recorded 0.87” of rainfall from September 1st to October 15th, which is a record low amount of rainfall for that time span and nearly 7 inches below normal! As such, abnormally dry (emerging drought) has been introduced across all the West Coast of Florida. With little rainfall forecast in the next week, an introduction to Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) may occur in next weeks drought outlook in portions of this region. The biggest story developing in Florida during a rather benign stretch of weather is the worsening drought across the Panhandle and North Florida. 30-day rainfall departures are widespread 2-4” across the Panhandle with many creeks, streams, and rivers running below low thresholds. Vegetation and soil moisture levels have worsened as well amidst warm and dry conditions. As such, much of the severe drought across the northern Panhandle has been categorically upgraded to an Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) in western Madison, northern Jefferson, and northern Leon, Gadsden, Jackson, and Holmes counties. A Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was expanded across the rest of the Panhandle, outside of far western counties of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties which have remained in a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4). Similarly, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) has remained in place across the Suwannee Valley. With little rainfall forecast in the next week, drought conditions will continue to deteriorate which will enhance the wildfire risk across the Panhandle.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 394 (+8) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Okaloosa, Pasco, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A cold front moving across the Panhandle and Big Bend will move rather quickly through today bringing much needed rainfall to drought-ridden areas. The fast-paced nature of the front and the ongoing drought conditions should help to limit to risk for flash flooding. Slower moving thunderstorms or locally heavy downpours over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas could still lead to instances of ponding of water and flash flooding at times. Rainfall totals upwards of an inch can be expected, but locally higher totals upwards of 1-2’ will be possible.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage. Water levels will remain at moderate flood stage through the weekend as the St. Johns slowly discharges from the recent coastal storm and onshore wind event. Although surf, tides, and onshore winds have generally relaxed since early this week, the long-duration coastal action from previous weeks has significantly backed up the St. Johns River basin as evident from upstream St. Johns River above Lake Harney, St. Johns River near Sanford and St. Johns River near Deland which have risen into Action Stage (bank-full) and will remain so for the next couple of days as well. There are no other riverine concerns across the state at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.89 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.16 feet below normal for this time of year.