Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, January 29, 2026
...Another Cold Morning Across the State...Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories Through the Mid-Morning Hours Throughout the Peninsula...Sunshine Continues But Temperatures Will Still Feel Cooler Than Normal...Slightly Warmer Temperatures Tonight... Patchy Frost and Near-Freezing Temperatures Confined to the I-10 Corridor...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Nearly Statewide; High Risk Along Southwest Florida...
Updated at 8:57 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chills (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Statewide |
Locally I-10 Corridor
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I-10 Corridor |
Southwest FL Statewide |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect across the Peninsula through the mid-morning hours due to another cold start and elevated wind chills. A mostly sunny and dry day is expected statewide as high pressure remains anchored over the state with no chances of rain. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm throughout the day with the help of sunshine and drier air. Despite the sunshine, lingering wind gusts of 10-15 mph may make conditions feel slightly cooler than the actual temperatures. Critically low relative humidities (20-30%) will lead to sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions across North and West Florida this afternoon. A few wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are possible along the Southeast Florida coast this afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will warm up into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s throughout Central and South Florida.
Dry conditions will prevail overnight, though a light coastal shower cannot be ruled out at the southern tip of the Peninsula and Keys (20-30% chance of rain). Lows will dip into the 30s across North Florida, with localized patchy frost development. A Frost Advisory will likely be issued for portions of Northeast Florida tonight. Lows in the middle 40s will spread across Central Florida and upper 40s to lower 60s throughout South Florida. With light winds overnight, wind chills across the state will be near or warmer than actual temperatures.
Rip Currents: Dissipating ocean swells and ongoing northwesterly winds will create a moderate risk for rip currents across numerous Panhandle and East Coast beaches. A localized high risk is expected for Charlotte and Lee County in Southwest Florida. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells along the Florida East Coast will continue to slowly dissipate today but still lead to wave heights reaching 2-4’ with the Southeast Florida coast reaching upwards of 5’. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will see calmer conditions near 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Bay and Franklin counties and very low concentrations in Walton and Gulf County. It was not observed along the East Coast or in Southwest Florida (valid 1/23/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Very dry air has settled into the state and will lead to relative humidity values falling near and below critical thresholds across North Florida and along the I-75 corridor this afternoon. Wind gusts are expected to remain light near 10-15 mph; however, stronger gusts may develop along the Florida Southeast Coast later this afternoon. Despite some critical relative humidity values, winds will not be strong enough for Red Flag Conditions. Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected to continue, especially during the overnight period across North Florida, where near-freezing conditions will develop through Friday morning. These cooler temperatures will temper the wildfire risk. Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions persist given the ongoing and expanding drought conditions across the state. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 991 acres.
Drought (1/29/26): We saw the greatest rainfall over the past week mainly across the Panhandle and north of the I-10 corridor with our frontal passage last weekend (1/25). Here rainfall totals of 0.5-2” fell, yet the ongoing long-term drought was hardly impacted. On the latest Drought Monitor outlook, severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across much of North Florida and the I-10 corridor, expanding eastward to include the entire First Coast. Long-term (60 day) rainfall departures across the Nature Coast and North-Central Florida have neared 3-4” below normal, which has prompted the addition of an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) category. The extreme drought also remains untouched across the northern Big Bend region where, despite some rainfall, soil moisture levels and streamflows are well below normal. Across Central and South Florida, very little changes were made to this week’s outlook. Some slight expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Palm Beach and Martin counties where rainfall departures continue to dip below normal. Some slight improvement in drought conditions were found along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline with recent coastal shower activity. As of this outlook, 94% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 475 (0) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.87 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.81 feet below normal for this time of year.
