Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, March 13, 2026
...Mostly Sunny and Dry Conditions Return to North Florida with Sensitive Wildfire Conditions... Lingering Front, Moisture, and Sea Breezes to Promote Afternoon Shower and Thunderstorm Development Across South Florida... A Few Storms Could be Locally Strong to Severe... Gusty Winds and Heavy Downpours the Greatest Hazard... Highs in the 70s and 80s Statewide... Showers Linger Throughout South Florida Overnight... Fog and Low Clouds May Develop Across Northeast Florida Tonight... Lows in the 40s and 50s to the North, 60s in Central and South Florida... High Risk for Rip Currents for the East Coast with Surf of 4-6'; Moderate Risk for the Panhandle...
Updated at 9:36 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South FL
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|
South FL |
Locally Statewide |
Iso. South FL |
Locally Northeast and Interior South FL
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East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The cold front associated with yesterday’s frontal passage has stalled and begun to dissipate across South Florida, evident as a few lingering showers this morning. Tropical moisture will pool along and south of this front today with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee (45-60% chance of rain), and isolated activity extending northward to the I-4 corridor (15-40% chance of rain). A few of these storms could be locally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. A few locally heavy downpours can also not be ruled out, capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain. North of the I-4 corridor, a sunny and dry day is expected. Relative humidities will remain low today across North Florida (35-40%), with sensitive wildfire conditions expected given the ongoing drought. A few breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are expected across the Peninsula this afternoon.
High temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle today, with upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere statewide. Onshore winds may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler along the East Coast.
Tonight, activity across South Florida will linger and may start to drift northward into Central Florida after midnight with isolated showers (25-40% chance of rain). A few coastal showers will also linger along the Southeast Florida coastline (40-50% chance of rain). A mostly dry night is expected elsewhere, though low-level moisture and calm winds may promote low clouds and fog across Northeast and interior South Florida.
Lows will fall into the middle 40s and 50s in the Panhandle and Big Bend, with 60s and lower 70s throughout the Peninsula and Keys.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds and elevated surf will bring a return of a high risk for rip currents to all East Coast beaches today. A moderate risk is expected for most Panhandle beaches. West Coast beaches can still expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will gradually subside throughout the day along the East Coast, with wave heights of 4-6’ this afternoon decreasing to 2-4’ overnight. Panhandle and West Coast beaches can expect surf of 1-2’ through tonight.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Flagler County and low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/6/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A mostly dry day is on tap across North Florida where relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (35-40% RH values). Given the ongoing drought, this will continue to promote sensitive wildfire conditions, especially in any areas that received little rainfall from our frontal passage yesterday. However, most vegetation should remain saturated enough from recent rains to keep the larger wildfire risk lower. Portions of South Florida saw little rainfall yesterday; however, scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries. A few wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are expected outside of thunderstorm activity today throughout the Peninsula. Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. Areas of low clouds and fog may develop tonight across Northeast Florida, which can further reduce visibilities in the vicinity of ongoing and active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 58 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,882 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 511 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 38 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across South Florida sparked by sea breezes. Some of these showers and storms may bring locally heavy downpours capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.18 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.29 feet below normal for this time of year.
