Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, May 28, 2026
... Wet and Rainy Day Expected Statewide as Deep Southwesterly Flow Increases... Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms to Develop Along the Sea Breezes Later Today... Areas of Flooding Possible Across the Western Panhandle and Southeast Florida Metro... A Few Storms Could Become Locally Strong with Frequent Lightning and Gusty Winds... Highs in the 80s Expected... Feels-like Temperatures Approach the Middle to Upper 90s Across Central and South Florida... Areas of Patchy Fog Possible Along the I-10 Corridor Tonight... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 8:46 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally East-Central & Southeast FL Peninsula Rest of State
|
Iso. Central Peninsula |
Iso. Central Peninsula |
|
Locally Central & South FL |
Panhandle & Southeast FL
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Locally Interior North Florida |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure over the western Atlantic will nudge just a bit further east today as an upper-level disturbance remains across the lower Mississippi River Valley. This will keep the enhanced southerly flow across the state, though turn it more out of the southwest this afternoon. As a result, even deeper tropical moisture will get pulled northward from the Gulf across the entire state today with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes statewide (50-80% chance of rain). With this southwesterly flow, the Gulf sea breeze will push inland today and collide with the Atlantic sea breeze near the spine of the Peninsula. This will focus the highest rain chances through the Central Peninsula and eastward towards the I-95 corridor where a few locally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph). The Florida Keys and coastal Panhandle will see the lowest chances of rain today (35-45%).
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and the Southeast Florida corridor today. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
High temperatures will remain mostly in the 80s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall. However, peeks of sunshine may bring temperatures into the lower 90s across the interior Peninsula. Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as humidity increases. Feels-like temperatures will approach the middle to upper 90s throughout Central and South Florida this afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across East-Central and Southeast Florida before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain). A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across the state overnight as well (15-25% chance of rain). Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state. Areas of patchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could become locally dense.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk will return to all West Coast beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will diminish a bit along the East Coast and Panhandle today, with waves near 2-3’ expected. Surf near 1’ is expected for West Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Bay County. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/22/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: The overall fire weather threat is low today due to increasing humidity values and rain chances. As winds shift out of the southwest today, rain chances will increase statewide with winds diminishing from previous days. Still, the threat of thunderstorms with lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds may spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones, especially in any areas that have seen little rainfall in recent days. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 66 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,998 acres.
Drought (5/19/26): Some slight categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the state, though were very localized in nature. Across the western Panhandle, all of the remaining extreme drought has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) given rainfall of 2-3 inches over the past 10 days or so. Some of the exceptional drought over northern Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, and Jackson counties has been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) where some of the heaviest rainfall in the past 2 weeks has fallen (4-6” or more). Otherwise, the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) throughout the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley was untouched despite some rainfall over the past week. The longer-term rainfall deficits, dating back to the beginning of last Autumn, continue to drive the ongoing drought situation with many streams, creeks, rivers, and lakes well below normal in water levels. The extreme drought (level 3 of 4) throughout Northeast Florida, the I-75 corridor, and interior South Florida was largely untouched, except for slight reductions to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) in western Palm Beach and southern Osceola counties. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across portions of Central Florida around and just south of the Orlando metro region and along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 22% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. Looking ahead, a statewide drenching rainfall is not anticipated over the next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus throughout the interior Peninsula, I-75 corridor, and Panhandle which may bring localized drought relief and slow improvements. However, the long-term drought conditions are expected to largely continue.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 397 (-4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 20 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the western Panhandle and Southeast Florida today for additional rounds of heavy rainfall that may lead to nuisance flooding and ponding of water. Across the Panhandle, already saturated soils may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Rainfall amounts will measure around 1-2” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” or more cannot be ruled out. Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding throughout the remainder of the state, locally heavy downpours may lead to nuisance flooding, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: Numerous river and stream gauges are within Action Stage (bank-full) this morning across the western Panhandle due to recent heavy rainfall. These include the Escambia River near Century, Shoal River near Crestview, Bear Creek at US 231, and Bruce Creek near Redbay. These streams are expected to remain in Action Stage through the end of the week, at least. Additional riverine responses into Action Stage are expected today and through the end of the week throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend with more heavy rainfall anticipated. Additional updates to these forecasts will be likely through the week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.17 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.97 feet below normal for this time of year.
