Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, November 9, 2025
...Dense Fog Conditions Throughout North and Central Florida this Morning...Cold Front to Sweep Across the State Bringing Coldest Air of the Season Yet...Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms to Develop Ahead of Front...Embedded Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across North and Central Florida - Lightning, Damaging Winds, Hail and Heavy Downpours...Drier and Much Cooler Air to Follow Behind Front...Gusty Winds Pick Up Overnight, Strongest Winds Closer Towards Coast...Feels-Like Temperatres Near or Below Freezing Along Northwestern Panhandle Sunrise Monday...Feels-Like Temperatures Dipping Into 30s Along I-10 Corridor Monday Morning...Moderate Rip Current Risk Along Panhandle and Space Coast...Nuisance Tidal Flooding Along Keys...
Updated at 9:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
North & Central Florida Iso. Statewide |
North & Central Florida |
Locally North & West-Central FL |
Locally | Northwest Panhandle | Iso. Keys |
Gulf County Panhandle & Space Coast Elsewhere |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Dense Fog Advisories are scattered across much of the Big Bend and West-Central Florida as dense fog and low clouds have reduced visibilities to ¼ of a mile or less at times. Portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida are also experiencing areas of patchy dense fog and creating reduced visibilities. Foggy conditions and low clouds should gradually lift and dissipate this morning as a cold front begins to sweep across the state. Ahead of this cold front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop this afternoon and evening along the I-10 corridor as well as throughout the eastern and central Peninsula (25-45% chance of rain). Favorable conditions ahead of the front may allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across northern and central Florida later today, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather today. These strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), instances of large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy downpours. While there is no organized risk for flash flooding today, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out within thunderstorm activity and could lead to instances of ponding of water over urban and low-lying/poor drainage
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to move northeastward to eastward this evening with the cold front as it pushes through the state overnight. The greatest chance for shower and thunderstorm activity will remain earlier in the day, but a few lingering showers along the immediate frontal boundary cannot be ruled out heading into the overnight hours across portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida (15-35% chance of rain). Once the front passes through, winds will quickly shift out of the northwest allowing much cooler and drier air to follow behind overnight across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Wind gusts overnight will increase to 15-25 mph throughout North Florida and closer to 20-30 mph along the Gulf Coast behind the front. Some instances of patchy fog may be possible ahead of the cold front early Monday morning across South Florida.
High temperatures will upper 70s to middle 80s this afternoon across the state. Clearing skies and cooler conditions behind the cold front will allow for low temperatures across North Florida to fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s. With breezy winds developing overnight and continuing into Monday morning, portions of the northwestern Panhandle can expect sub-freezing or near-freezing feels-like temperatures at sunrise (30-34-degrees). Much of the I-10 corridor will also see feels-like temperatures in the middle to upper 30s Monday morning. Low temperatures throughout Central Florida will remain in the middle 50s to upper 60s. South Florida will continue to see low temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s overnight.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all East Coast and most Panhandle beaches today. All other beaches can expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will remain calm today statewide with wave heights of 1-2’ for all beaches. A few waves upwards of 3’ are possible for East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Franklin County, background to very low concentrations in Bay County, and low to high concentrations in Gulf County across Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Volusia County along the Florida East Coast. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida (11/7).
Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys for instances of minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide. Elevated water levels are not anticipated throughout the tidal St. Johns River today, though localized nuisance coastal flooding is possible.
Fire Weather: Southerly to southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to uplift moisture across the state and also help to produce isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms today. Winds will generally remain light across the state today; however, any thunderstorm could produce erratic winds which could help spread new or existing fires. While the overall wildfire threat across the state remains generally low, ongoing and worsening drought and rainfall deficits continue to lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions throughout North Florida and now extending along West-Central Florida. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 18 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 198 acres
Drought: Very little beneficial rainfall fell over the past week across the state as high pressure and dry air kept any rain chances low. As such, very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor outlook. Across South Florida, some expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions further into inland Miami-Dade and Broward counties was introduced where warm temperatures and rainfall totals less than 1 inch occurred. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) remains in place along the entire I-75 corridor along the West Coast of Florida, extending inland into some interior counties such as Hardee and DeSoto. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced to this week’s outlook across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties where 30-day rainfall departures have reached 2-3 inches. Across North Florida, unfortunately the Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) Drought remain in place where, over the past 2 weeks, most locations have seen less than a half-inch of rain. No changes were made to the drought in these areas this week with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) conditions persisting for interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley. Although some showers are possible along a frontal passage this weekend and early next week across North Florida, widespread heavy rainfall is not expected to alleviate any of the ongoing drought. For the I-95 corridor and East Coast, soils remain saturated from heavy rainfall in October keeping any drought in check.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 442 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front sweeping across the state will bring instances of locally heavy downpours at times. While rainfall totals are forecast to remain below 0.5”, a quick 1-2” cannot be ruled out within the thunderstorm activity later today for portions of the I-10 corridor and along Central Florida. Heavy downpours may bring instances of localized flooding for low-lying/poor drainage areas.
Riverine Flooding: Water levels continue to slowly discharge across the St. Johns River. The St. Johns River at Astor remains in minor flood stage and is expected to approach Action Stage (bank-full) next week. Additional points along the headwaters of the St. Johns River including Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney also have elevated water levels near Action Stage (bank-full). A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.89 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.14 feet below normal for this time of year.
