Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, March 9, 2026
...Foggy Start to the Morning Across the State...Dense Fog Conditions in Some Areas...Mostly Dry Day With Possible Afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms...Localized Embedded Stronger Thunderstorms Possible Near the Panhandle State Line...Sea Breeze Showers and Thunderstorms Possible for South Florida...Warm Day Again In the 80s...Clearing Conditions Tonight...Widespread Fog Possible Again With Dense Fog...Moderate Rip Current Risk Returns to the East Coast; Panhandle Still Seeing Moderate to High Risk...
Updated at 9:39 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Iso. Panhandle & South FL |
Iso. Panhandle & South FL |
Locally Statewide |
Locally Statewide South FL |
E. Panhandle Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Fog and low clouds this morning have reduced visibilities for much of the state, especially in areas of dense fog across the Big Bend and Central Florida. Fog will be slow to lift and mix out this morning but will lead to mostly sunny skies. High pressure extending over the state will also help to bring mostly dry conditions throughout the state during the daytime hours. The sea breeze moving inland across the southern Peninsula will help isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop (15-30% chance of rain). An upper-level disturbance moving across the southeastern U.S. will dissipate as it approaches the state line this afternoon and evening. This system may help to bring isolated showers or thunderstorms to the northern Panhandle, but the greatest chance will remain to the north. Similarly, the greatest chance for severe weather is also to the north, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm near the state line or crossing into the northern Panhandle will be possible. Any stronger thunderstorm activity that develops will be capable of producing lightning, damaging wind gust (50-60 mph) and small hail.
High temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to upper 80s across the state this afternoon, with portions of the interior Peninsula reaching the 90-degree mark.
Shower and thunderstorm activity from this evening should dissipate or move towards the coastal waters leading to mostly dry conditions overnight. Calm winds and low-level moisture will give way to fog developing nearly statewide, with instances of dense fog possible by early Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s and lower 70s throughout the state overnight.
Rip Currents: Calmer than recent marine conditions can be expected which will allow for a moderate rip current risk for return to the East Coast. Breezier onshore winds along the Panhandle will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected statewide.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Flagler County and low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/6/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Foggy conditions this morning throughout the state this morning will linger as it slowly mixes out and lifts. Low-level moisture across the state continues to keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds with the “lowest” values across the most interior Peninsula areas. Easterly to southeasterly winds near 5-10 mph are expected to continue across the state, with wind gusts keeping below 15 mph. Afternoon showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandle and South Florida, and thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Another round of widespread fog can be expected to develop statewide overnight and into Tuesday morning, with dense fog conditions possible. Foggy conditions will further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 71 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 8,948 acres.
Drought (3/5/26): The cold front that swept through the state last weekend (2/27-2/28) brought some “beneficial” rains to portions of the state, yet totals were still not enough to provide any real relief or alleviation to the ongoing long-term drought that has stricken Florida. The heaviest totals were found across the Panhandle and in pockets throughout Central Florida, generally upwards of 2-2.5” or so. However, other portions of the state, such as interior South Florida, saw negligible rainfall. This was reflected in the latest Drought Monitor update this week where the previous severe drought has been upgraded to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) across the remainder of Collier, Lee, and Hendry counties. As such, all Southwest Florida is now under the extreme drought category as 90-day rainfall departures remain at 3-5” below normal. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists across nearly all North Florida, outside of the western Panhandle that remains under a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought. The largest rainfall departures in the past 3 months of 5-7” below normal is found across North Florida where streamflows remain well below normal, recreational and agricultural impacts have worsened, and brush wildfires continue to remain a concern. A moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains across much of the I-4 corridor where locally heavier rains have fallen in the past few months. The extreme drought conditions have brought increasing wildfire conditions as well, especially throughout South Florida where a few large wildfires have broken out (i.e. the National Wildfire burning nearly 35,000 acres). As of this update, 100% of the land across Florida remains within a category of drought and 70% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The rainfall forecast through the next week does not look promising for any improvements to the drought. A few isolated showers or embedded thunderstorms could bring pockets of heavier rainfall to portions of the Peninsula as the local sea breezes begin to wake up amidst warmer temperatures, though widespread drenching rains are not expected.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 492 (+1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms throughout the southern Peninsula may be capable of producing a quick 1-2”, especially any stronger thunderstorm activity that manages to develop.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.24 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.24 feet below normal for this time of year.
