Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
... Numerous Rounds of Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Across the Panhandle Today... Marginal to Slight (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked and a Flood Watch in Effect... Rainfall Totals Could Reach Upwards of 4-6" or More in Localized Areas... Riverine Responses Expected Across the Western Panhandle... Isolated Storms Along the I-75 Corridor Today... Highs in the 80s Across the Panhandle, 90s for the Peninsula... Feels-like Temperatures Approach 100-degrees Along the I-75 Corridor... Breezy Winds Gusting Upwards of 20-25 mph Along the East Coast... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 8:50 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Western Panhandle & I-75 Corridor Statewide
|
|
Iso. I-75 Corridor & Western Panhandle |
Locally Statewide (lightning) |
Locally Northeast & Southwest FL |
Panhandle Western Big Bend |
|
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast Nature Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A few showers are ongoing across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning amidst deep moist southerly flow between high pressure to the east and an upper-level disturbance to the west over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This moist flow will continue today with additional rounds of northward moving showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandle and western Big Bend this afternoon (60-90% chance of rain). A Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across the Panhandle and western Big Bend today for a few instances of flash flooding due to additional heavy rainfall over already saturated soils. A Flood Watch is also in effect until tonight for these areas. Rainfall amounts will measure 2-3” for most locations, though locally higher totals upwards of 4-6” or more cannot be ruled out. Any of these storms could also become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
A sharp cutoff in rainfall is expected across the central and eastern Big Bend today where just a few isolated showers or storms are expected. Sea breeze showers and storms are expected to develop along the I-75 corridor this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain), with isolated activity throughout the remainder of the Peninsula (15-30% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding with this activity, a few locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. Breezy southeasterly winds will develop along the East Coast today, with gusts upwards of 25 mph across East-Central and Southeast Florida.
High temperatures will remain in the 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, with lower to middle 90s throughout the Peninsula. Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100-degrees.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight along the I-75 corridor and across the Panhandle before eventually waning around midnight (40-60% chance of rain). Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state. Patchy fog is not anticipated given abundant cloud cover and visibilities should remain generally near or above 3 miles.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A moderate risk is also expected for most West Coast beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will begin to increase for all statewide beaches today, with waves near 2-4’ for most shorelines. A few waves upwards of 5’ cannot be ruled out for Treasure Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Bay County. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/22/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: The overall fire weather threat is low today due to increasing humidity values and rain chances. However, much of East-Central and South Florida may miss out on the rain and could see a locally increased fire threat as southeasterly winds gusting up to 25-30 mph could challenge fire containment. Elsewhere, the threat of thunderstorms with lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds will be capable of sparking new wildfires or reigniting existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 84 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 19,294 acres.
Drought (5/19/26): Some slight categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the state, though were very localized in nature. Across the western Panhandle, all of the remaining extreme drought has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) given rainfall of 2-3 inches over the past 10 days or so. Some of the exceptional drought over northern Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, and Jackson counties has been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) where some of the heaviest rainfall in the past 2 weeks has fallen (4-6” or more). Otherwise, the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) throughout the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley was untouched despite some rainfall over the past week. The longer-term rainfall deficits, dating back to the beginning of last Autumn, continue to drive the ongoing drought situation with many streams, creeks, rivers, and lakes well below normal in water levels. The extreme drought (level 3 of 4) throughout Northeast Florida, the I-75 corridor, and interior South Florida was largely untouched, except for slight reductions to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) in western Palm Beach and southern Osceola counties. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across portions of Central Florida around and just south of the Orlando metro region and along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 22% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. Looking ahead, a statewide drenching rainfall is not anticipated over the next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus throughout the interior Peninsula, I-75 corridor, and Panhandle which may bring localized drought relief and slow improvements. However, the long-term drought conditions are expected to largely continue.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 422 (-23) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 19 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Panhandle and western Big Bend today for additional rounds of heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding on already saturated soils. A Flood Watch has also been issued for these areas through this evening. Rainfall amounts will measure around 2-3” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 4-6” or more cannot be ruled out. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may also develop along the I-75 corridor today where a few storms could produce locally heavy downpours.
Riverine Flooding: Numerous river and stream gauges are within Action Stage (bank-full) this morning across the western Panhandle due to recent heavy rainfall. These include the Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Shoal River near Crestview, Shoal River near Mossy Head, and Bruce Creek near Redbay. These streams are expected to remain in Action Stage through the end of the week, at least. The Shoal River near Crestview is forecast to reach minor flood stage tomorrow. Additional riverine responses are expected today throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend with more heavy rainfall anticipated. Additional updates to these forecasts will be likely through the week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.22 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.93 feet below normal for this time of year.
