Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, June 20, 2026
... Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Throughout North Florida Today... Flooding Concerns Remain Elevated Given Recent Days of Heavy Rainfall... Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked... Minor to Locally Moderate River Flooding Ongoing Across the Western Panhandle... Scattered Sea Breeze Activity Throughout the Peninsula, Focused Along the I-95 Corridor... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked for Nuisance Flooding in Urban Corridors... Any Activity Could Become Strong to Severe with Frequent Lightning and Gusty Winds...Heat and Humidity to Continue Across Peninsula Today...Widespread Feels-Like Temps in the 100s Today... Heat Advisory for the Southern Peninsula... High Risk of Rip Currents Across Panhandle Beaches...Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Elsewhere...
Updated at 8:41 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
I-10 & I-95 Corridors Interior Peninsula West Coast
|
|
Iso. Statewide |
Iso. West-Central FL |
Peninsula Locally Panhandle |
Locally Northwest & Northeast FL I-10 & I-95 Corridors |
|
Panhandle Space & Treasure Coast Gold Coast First Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Another warm, summer start to the day across the Sunshine State as the state remains under persistent moist west to southwesterly flow. The nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the Deep South will encourage additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout much of North Florida later this morning and afternoon, focused especially along and near the I-10 corridor (75-90% chance of rain). Although much of the activity today will lack the vigor from previous days, a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is still outlooked given flash flood thresholds remain lower from previous days of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts will generally add up to 1-2” in areas that do see the heaviest activity, though locally higher totals cannot be ruled out. Throughout the Peninsula, the West Coast sea breeze will begin to push inland as the East Coast sea breeze remains pinned near the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Peninsula this morning along the West Coast sea breeze, trekking eastward towards the I-95 corridor throughout the day (50-75% chance of rain). Thunderstorm activity is expected to be highest in coverage along the East Coast where the sea breezes will eventually collide. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked here where torrential downpours may lead to instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Although there is no organized risk for severe weather with any of this thunderstorm activity statewide today, a few locally strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) the primary hazards.
High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide today. Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach or exceed 100-degrees throughout the Peninsula. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the southern tip of the Peninsula (Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) where heat indices will be greatest (106 to 109-degrees).
Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the state will largely begin to dissipate or push offshore after dark. Some lingering activity is possible until midnight, especially along the I-95 corridor (25-45% chance of rain). Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds along the Panhandle will result in a high risk for rip currents for all beaches. The rip current risk will diminish for West Coast beaches, returning to a low risk. A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for Space and Treasure Coast beaches with a low risk elsewhere. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will begin to diminish today along all Panhandle shorelines, with waves expected be near 2-3’. All other statewide beaches can expected surf near 1-2’.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Pinellas and Hillsborough counties over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/19/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.
Fire Weather: Widespread swaths of rainfall are expected in the Panhandle later today, with seasonable patterns of daily showers and storms expected in the interior and eastern Peninsula. Any of today’s thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Have only kept locally sensitive wildfire conditions for portions of West-Central Florida where very little rain has fallen in recent days/weeks. Expected rainfall today/over the past few days should limit fire weather threat elsewhere beyond a generalized threat of lightning-based ignitions and gusty/erratic winds that come with typical summer thunderstorms. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 38 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 24,727 acres.
Drought (6/16/26): Very little to no changes were made to the drought across North Florida on this week’s update, with many areas keeping their drought category from last week’s update. Exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) remains across localized portions of the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) surrounding that. Throughout Central and South Florida, some reductions in the drought were observed across West-Central and interior South Florida. Some of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in these areas has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4), including in Collier, Hendry, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Coastal areas of Collier and mainland Monroe counties is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Some heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor has brought moderate drought conditions down to abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. All other remaining drought areas saw little to no change in this week’s update. Recent flash flooding over North Florida will likely promote more substantial drought improvements across these areas in next week’s update, with more seasonable distributions of showers and storms across the Peninsula likely providing some localized categorical improvements. Limited observed rainfall across the Western half of the peninsula will likely lead to degradations in the drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 382 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 10 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Another round of heavy rainfall is expected today across North Florida. While these storms will not be as slow-moving or widespread as recent days, they will be both very efficient rain-makers and be occurring over highly saturated soils. For these reasons, the WPC has outlooked a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across all North Florida today. Any additional heavy rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding and/or lead to flash flooding. Today’s storms across the Peninsula will also likely be efficient rain makers, and thus the WPC has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today along the East Coast. Areas of nuisance flooding and ponding of water are the greatest concern in urban and poor drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: Flash flooding over the past few days has prompted riverine responses across the Florida Panhandle. The following gauges are expected to reach Minor flood stage in the coming days: Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Escambia River near Century, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Yellow River at Milligan, Shoal River near Crestview, and the Choctawatchee River near Bruce-Ebro. The Blackwater River near Baker is now set to crest into Moderate flood stage this weekend. Flood Warnings have been issued for the Perdido River, Escambia River, Big Coldwater Creek, Blackwater River, Yellow River, and Shoal River. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.02 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.19 feet below normal for this time of year.
