Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, May 29, 2026
... Another Wet and Rainy Day Expected Statewide as Deep Southwesterly Flow Persists... Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms to Develop Along the Sea Breezes Later Today... Areas of Flooding Possible Across the Western Panhandle and Northeast Florida... A Few Storms Could Become Locally Strong with Frequent Lightning and Gusty Winds... Highs in the 80s to Lower 90s Expected... Feels-like Temperatures Approach the Middle to Upper 90s Across Central and South Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 10:39 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally East-Central FL Rest of State
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Iso. I-95 Corridor |
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Locally Central & South FL |
Panhandle & Northeast FL
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Panhandle East Coast West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The state of Florida is positioned between a large upper-level disturbance over the Northeast U.S. that is diving southeastward over the open Atlantic and a weak ridge axis to the south over the Western Caribbean. The resulting surface flow between these two features will generally be southwesterly to westerly across the state. This flow regime will favor inland Panhandle locations and the East Coast for today’s shower and thunderstorm activity. With the deeply moist tropical airmass still firmly overtop the state, there is a high (50-80%) chance of showers and storms for these locations. In particular, the East Coast is likely to see the greatest coverage and intensity of activity today as westerly flow will push the West Coast sea breeze inland where it may collide with the pinned East Coast sea breeze and promote enhanced thunderstorm growth. A few locally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph). Coastal Panhandle, West Coast, and Florida Keys locations will see the lowest chances of rain today (<30%).
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and across Northeast Florida corridor today. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
High temperatures will remain in the upper 80 to lower 90s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall. Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as high humidity values remain. Feels-like temperatures will approach the middle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with a few isolated locations likely approaching or exceeding 100 degrees.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across North-Central Florida and the East Coast before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain). A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across the state overnight as well (15-25% chance of rain). Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state. Areas of patchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could become locally dense.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to bring a high risk for rip currents for all Panhandle beaches today. A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for Northern and Central East Coast beaches. A low risk will return to all West Coast and Southeast beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will further diminish along the East Coast and Panhandle today, with waves near 2-3’ expected. Surf near 1’ is expected for West Coast and Southeast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Bay County. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/22/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: The overall fire weather threat is low today due to high humidity values and rain chances. Winds shift southwesterly to westerly today, focusing rain chances to the Panhandle and the East Coast. Wind gusts will generally be limited to <15mph today. Still, the threat of thunderstorms with lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds may spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones, especially in any areas that have seen little rainfall in recent days. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 57 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,900 acres.
Drought (5/26/26): Localized categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the Western Panhandle and portions of Southwest and Central Florida. In the Panhandle where the highest rainfall totals (4-6”) were observed last week, the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) was reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) for Bay, Calhoun and Gadsen, and eastern Gulf, Liberty, and Franklin counties. In addition, the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) was reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) for Walton, Washington, Holmes, and Jackson counties, as well as portions of eastern Bay, Calhoun, and Gadsen counties. The exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) throughout the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley was left untouched following much lower observed rainfall totals last week. Elsewhere, the large area of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in place along the West Coast and Southwest Florida was relatively unchanged except for some small reductions to the severe drought (level 2 of 4) along the Southern I-75 corridor and portions of Hillsborough, Pasco, Sumter, and Lake Counties. The moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across portions of Central Florida around and just south of the Orlando metro region and along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 17% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought - a 5% reduction in exceptional drought coverage compared to last week. Looking ahead, widespread showers and thunderstorms resulting in above-normal rainfall amounts should bring localized drought relief and gradual categorical improvements.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 384 (-13) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 19 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and across Northeast Florida corridor today. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: Numerous river and stream gauges are within Action Stage (bank-full) this morning across the western Panhandle due to recent heavy rainfall. These include the Escambia River near Century, Shoal River near Crestview, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, and the Blackwater River near Baker. These streams are expected to remain in Action Stage through the end of the week, at least. Additional riverine responses into Action Stage are expected today and through the end of the week throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend with more heavy rainfall anticipated. Additional updates to these forecasts will be likely through the week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.98 feet below normal for this time of year.
