Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, February 21, 2026
...Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Along the Florida Panhandle...Primary Threats Include Locally Damaging Wind Gusts, Lightning, and Instances of Hail...A Brief, Isolated Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out North of I-10 Corridor...Warm Day and Sunny Skies in the Peninsula; Lower 90s Possible Over the Interior...Patchy Fog and Low Cloudy Likely One More Night...Elevated Rip Current Conditions Along Florida Panhandle and Atlantic Beaches...Locally Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Threat Persists Throughout Florida Peninsula...
Updated at 9:50 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Coastal Flooding |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Western Panhandle Panhandle & Big Bend |
Iso. Interior Panhandle |
Florida Panhandle |
Interior Peninsula Statewide |
Iso. Panhandle |
Locally Florida Peninsula |
Panhandle & Palm Beach County East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Fog and low clouds along Gulf coastal zones will likely linger into the late morning hours and may persist into the early afternoon in some locations. The primary weather headline today will be a frontal system triggering scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Florida Panhandle (35-65% chance of rain). A few thunderstorms may become strong to locally severe following the peak heating hours of the day. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Florida Panhandle under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather. Primary hazards include locally damaging wind gusts of 45-60 mph, occasional lightning, and isolated instances of hail (0.5-1” in diameter). While the greatest tornado potential appears to remain just north of the Florida state line across the Deep South, thunderstorms along and north of the I-10 corridor could still produce a brief, isolated tornado. The overall severe weather threat will be limited by the amount of energy available to maintain these thunderstorms as activity may maximize in coverage during the end of the daytime hours. Rain chances will increase and gradually shift eastward through the evening and overnight hours (45-75% chance of rain), setting the stage for a wet Sunday across portions of the Central Florida Peninsula. The severe weather threat will largely diminish after sunset.
Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida. Across the Florida Peninsula, ample sunshine and minimal rain coverage will allow temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s, with a few interior locations potentially eclipsing the 90-degree mark.Mild conditions continue for one more night, with lows falling into the upper 40s to middle 50s across the Florida Panhandle and into the 60s across the Florida Peninsula. Abundant low-level moisture ahead of the approaching shower and rain activity will support another night of patchy to locally dense fog and low clouds.
Rip Currents: Increasing southerly winds ahead of the approaching frontal system will result in a high risk of rip currents along all Florida Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for all Florida East Coast beaches, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach County beaches. Low risk conditions will persist along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Winds increasing ahead of the advancing frontal system will allow wave heights to reach 2-4’ along Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe and Miami-Dade County, with very low concentrations collected along Bay County. (valid 2/13/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure conditions will continue to limit rain chances for much of the state outside of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where a frontal system will influence increasing rain and thunderstorm chances today. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds; however, the driest conditions (30-40% relative humidity) are expected throughout the interior Florida Peninsula. Winds are expected to remain near 5-15 mph throughout the state, with higher wind gusts of 15-25 mph possible closer to the approaching cold front across North Florida. A few thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor today may be strong to locally severe, and pose the risk of lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Despite rain chances in the equation, persistent long-term drought and dry soils/vegetation will still promote an elevated to locally sensitive wildfire threat statewide. Calm winds ahead of the frontal system will allow for pockets of fog and low clouds to develop throughout the southern Florida Peninsula tonight into Sunday morning. Foggy conditions in areas with ongoing wildfires will further reduce visibilities. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 65 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,456 acres.
Drought (2/19/26): Yet another potent cold front passed through the state this past Sunday (2/15) bringing scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to much of North and Central Florida. Rainfall totals, however, were simply not enough to alleviate much of the drought and further drought expansion or degradation was seen in this week’s latest Drought Monitor outlook. The heaviest rainfall from this cold front was found across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with widespread totals between 0.5-1.5” and localized amounts upwards of 3”. Still, much of the Panhandle and Big Bend remain between 2-4” below normal in rainfall over the past 30 days. As such, expansion of the extreme (level 3 of 4) drought into the remainder of Flagler County and northern Volusia County along the East Coast, as well as all the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle down to the coastline, was made in this week’s outlook. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought is still in place and unchanged across the western Panhandle. Throughout Central Florida, rainfall totals ranged from 1-2” across the Nature Coast to nearly no appreciable rainfall down to Lake Okeechobee. Very little chances were found along the I-4 corridor where a moderate (level 1 of 4) drought remains. Additional expansion, however, of the extreme (level 3 of 4) drought was made across South-Central Florida in Highlands, Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Long-term rainfall departures (90 days) are between 2-4” for much of Central Florida, with East-Central Florida up to 7” in some locations. Nearly no appreciable rain fell over the past week across South Florida where extreme (level 3 of 4) drought has expanded across all interior Glades, Hendry, Collier, Monroe, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties. Coastal Southeast Florida remains under a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought. Over the next week, very little rainfall is expected with only a few scattered showers across North Florida. Rainfall totals will likely remain below 0.5” with continued drought deterioration.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 485 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity along the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, gradually spreading eastward along the I-10 corridor this evening and tonight. Rainfall totals will generally remain between 0.5-1”; however, locally heavy downpours within the stronger or more organized activity will be possible. Isolated pockets of 1-2” cannot be ruled out, especially for Florida Panhandle locations that see multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorm activity.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.46 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.09 feet below normal for this time of year.
