Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds will persist along the Florida East Coast and the Panhandle keeping a high risk for rip currents in place for numerous beaches. A low risk is expected for all West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Swells of 1-3’ can be expected across the state today, with larger wave action along the First Coast and Atlantic beaches reaching 4’. 

 

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Flagler County and low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/6/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.

 

Fire Weather: Foggy conditions this morning throughout the state will gradually lift and dissipate, especially in areas of the Big Bend and along the northeastern Peninsula where dense fog has developed. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds throughout the day as low-level moisture continues to surge over the state. Showers and thunderstorms can also be expected to develop with a slow-moving cold front approaching the state and the sea breeze developing. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to stay light today near 5-10 mph, with wind gusts also keeping near 10-15 mph. Stronger winds gusts upwards of 20 mph are possible along the Florida Keys. Widespread fog can be expected to develop late overnight and into Monday morning across the state, with dense fog possible across the Big Bend and Nature Coast. Foggy conditions will further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 71 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 6,492 acres.

 

Drought (3/5/26): The cold front that swept through the state last weekend (2/27-2/28) brought some “beneficial” rains to portions of the state, yet totals were still not enough to provide any real relief or alleviation to the ongoing long-term drought that has stricken Florida. The heaviest totals were found across the Panhandle and in pockets throughout Central Florida, generally upwards of 2-2.5” or so. However, other portions of the state, such as interior South Florida, saw negligible rainfall. This was reflected in the latest Drought Monitor update this week where the previous severe drought has been upgraded to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) across the remainder of Collier, Lee, and Hendry counties. As such, all Southwest Florida is now under the extreme drought category as 90-day rainfall departures remain at 3-5” below normal. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists across nearly all North Florida, outside of the western Panhandle that remains under a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought. The largest rainfall departures in the past 3 months of 5-7” below normal is found across North Florida where streamflows remain well below normal, recreational and agricultural impacts have worsened, and brush wildfires continue to remain a concern. A moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains across much of the I-4 corridor where locally heavier rains have fallen in the past few months. The extreme drought conditions have brought increasing wildfire conditions as well, especially throughout South Florida where a few large wildfires have broken out (i.e. the National Wildfire burning nearly 35,000 acres). As of this update, 100% of the land across Florida remains within a category of drought and 70% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The rainfall forecast through the next week does not look promising for any improvements to the drought. A few isolated showers or embedded thunderstorms could bring pockets of heavier rainfall to portions of the Peninsula as the local sea breezes begin to wake up amidst warmer temperatures, though widespread drenching rains are not expected.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 491 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Florida Panhandle today. Increasing low-level moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold front along with daytime heating will give way to showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall that may lead to instances of localized flash flooding. The heavier the downpour, the less likely it is for the rainfall to really soak into the ground, so urban or low-lying areas may have a greater potential. Rainfall totals of 1-2” are likely for the Panhandle, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” with any heavy downpours or repeated activity. Sea breeze showers thunderstorms across the Peninsula will be possible as well, where they can produce a quick 1-2”.

 

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.25 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.24 feet below normal for this time of year.