Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, April 4, 2026
...Areas of Patchy Fog Across North Florida to Dissipate by Mid-Morning... Mostly Dry Conditions Prevail Across the Peninsula; Sea Breeze Interactions to Promote Scattered Showers and Storms Throughout the Panhandle this Afternoon... A Few Storms Could Produce Locally Heavy Downpours, Frequent Lightning, and Gusty Winds... Breezy Conditions Persist Across the Peninsula Today... Sensitive to Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Remain Statewide Given Ongoing Drought... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...Surf Remains Elevated for East Coast Beaches Near 3-5'... Areas of Patchy Dense Fog Possible Throughout North Florida Tonight...
Updated at 9:26 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Northern Panhandle Panhandle & Big Bend |
Iso. Panhandle |
Locally Northeast FL Statewide |
|
Iso. Panhandle |
Western Panhandle & Northeast FL West-Central FL |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Any areas of patchy fog throughout North Florida this morning will quickly lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise. South and easterly flow will continue throughout the state today, though a plume of drier air aloft in the atmosphere will trail a pocket of moist air currently residing over the Big Bend northern Panhandle. This drier air will limit shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the Peninsula this afternoon, outside of coastal Southeast Florida where an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out (25-30% chance of rain). Southerly winds will help to push the sea breeze inland across the northern Panhandle this afternoon which will help spark isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during peak heating hours (25-55% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for severe weather today, a few storms could become locally strong across the Panhandle and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail. Additionally, a few locally heavy downpours could lead to a quick 1-3” of rain and areas of ponding of water and nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out in low-lying/poor drainage locations.
The south and easterly flow today will be accompanied by breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph throughout the state with locally higher gusts upwards of 25-30 mph along the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida. Given the ongoing drought, locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions will persist statewide, especially across Northeast Florida where relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (30-40% RH values). High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon. Portions of the I-75 corridor will approach the upper 80s or even 90-degrees.
Any shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish shortly after sunset throughout the state. A lingering isolated shower cannot be ruled out across Southeast Florida overnight (20-25% chance of rain). A cold front with a few showers and embedded thunderstorms will also approach the far western Panhandle close to daybreak on Sunday (20-30% chance of rain). Lows will reach the lower to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida. With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas of fog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida. The greatest chances for locally dense fog will be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida by daybreak Sunday.
Rip Currents: Breezy conditions will maintain elevated surf and dangerous swimming conditions to many Florida coastlines. A moderate to high risk of rip currents can be expected for all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with low risk conditions residing along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Marine conditions will remain elevated along the Florida East Coast today, with surf returning to 3-5’ for most beaches. A few waves upwards of 6’ cannot be ruled out for Treasure Coast beaches. Florida Panhandle beaches can expect waves near 2-3’ this afternoon, with West Coast beaches around 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe County (valid 4/3/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida today.
Fire Weather: Compared to recent days, a plume of drier air will keep rainfall chances lower throughout the Sunshine State today with relative humidities dipping to near critical thresholds (30-40% RH values) across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor. Given the ongoing drought and these dry conditions, sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions are expected. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the northern Panhandle and along the Southeast Florida coastline. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds which may lead to new ignitions or erratic spread. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph look to develop through the day throughout the Florida Peninsula, with wind gusts of 25-30 mph likely along the immediate coast and Southeast Florida. Tonight, areas of patchy to locally dense fog are possible throughout the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida. Fog may significantly reduce visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 80 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 6,450 acres.
Drought (4/2/26): Over the past week, mostly dry conditions were observed throughout much of the state which has resulted in very little improvements on the latest Drought Monitor update. In fact, outside of immediate coastal Southeast Florida where a cold front brought widespread rainfall of 1-3” this past weekend (3/28-3/29), there was no beneficial rainfall to be found. The last remaining area of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) across the western Panhandle has been upgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) due to recent dryness and worsening soil moisture levels. One of the biggest changes this week was additional expansion of the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend, Suwannee River Valley, and eastern Panhandle. Now, additional areas of Columbia, Baker, Union, Lafayette, Wakulla, and Jackson counties are under this level 4 of 4 drought. Over the past 6 months (October 1 – March 31), Tallahassee has seen record dryness with a total rainfall departure over that time reaching 13.51 inches below normal. Areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have remained throughout the rest of Northeast Florida and North-Central Florida, including a new area along the coast of Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties. Jacksonville has also seen record dryness over the past 6 months, with the rainfall deficit of 9.98 inches below normal in that time. The area of moderate to severe drought along the I-4 corridor continues to shrink as well as the area rainfall deficits continue to worsen. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) also persists across much of South Florida, outside of the immediate Southeast coastline where rainfall has brought some drought relief. Throughout the state, streamflows remain significantly low and soil moisture levels deep into the ground have also worsened with water management districts statewide remaining under some water shortage advisory or warning. Looking ahead, a widespread drenching rainfall is not expected over the next week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though afternoon spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible each day. Any areas that see the heaviest activity could see a quick 1-3” of rain, though will not be enough to put much of a dent in the drought. There remains some uncertainty regarding a possible Gulf low-pressure system developing next Tuesday, which could bring some beneficial rains to the state. Trends in that system will continue to be monitored.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 488 (-4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 39 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. A few isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across the northern Panhandle and coastal Southeast Florida, some of which could be locally heavy and capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rainfall. Areas of ponding of water and nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.03 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.21 feet below normal for this time of year.
