Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Onshore winds and a building ocean swell will bring a high risk for rip currents to most West Coast beaches today, as well as a local high risk for Gulf County along the Panhandle. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for all other Gulf-facing beaches, as well as the East Coast where seas will be locally calmer. Palm Beach County beaches can expect a high risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 2-4’ can be expected for nearly all statewide beaches this afternoon. A building ocean swell in the Gulf, in the wake of our frontal passage, will bring locally higher surf to some Florida West Coast beaches this afternoon with some waves upwards of 5’ possible. Surf will remain elevated near 2-4’ for West Coast beaches tonight. East Coast beaches will see an increase in surf tonight and by daybreak tomorrow, with wave heights of 3-5’ expected. A few waves upwards of 6’ cannot be ruled out, especially for Treasure Coast beaches.

 

Red Tide was observed at background to very low concentrations in Walton County, background to medium concentrations in Bay County, and low concentrations in Gulf County across the Panhandle. In Southwest Florida, red tide was observed at background to very low concentrations offshore Hillsborough and Lee County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at background concentrations from Balm Beach County (valid 1/31/2026).

 

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.

 

Fire Weather: The passing cold front through Central and South Florida will bring scattered showers throughout the morning and early afternoon hours, bringing some beneficial rainfall and keeping the overall wildfire threat low. However, in the wake of the front, much drier air will begin to filter into the state. Relative humidities will dip to near or below critical thresholds (25-30% RH values) across the western Panhandle this afternoon which may lead to locally elevated wildfire conditions. Breezy winds with gusts upwards of 20 mph are expected throughout North and Central Florida this afternoon, with a few gusts upwards of 30 mph possible across South Florida. Given the ongoing drought, at least sensitive wildfire conditions are expected across much of the state today. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 114 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,734 acres.

 

Drought (2/5/26): Over the past 10 days, a few cold fronts have brought scattered showers to portions of the state with some light rainfall. However, rainfall totals have remained very meager, at best, and have been unable to truly alleviate the ongoing drought conditions. As such, we have seen further deterioration of drought across much of the state in this week’s Drought Monitor outlook. Across North Florida, rainfall totals of 1-2” were found across the western Panhandle, yet these totals were still not enough to bring much drought relief. The I-10 corridor also saw some light rain, with totals around 0.5-0.75”. However, very dry conditions filtered into the state in the wake of the frontal passages which quickly dried out any soils and grounds. This has resulted in worsening drought and expansion of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) across Madison, Hamilton, Columbia, and Suwannee counties. This extreme drought remains in place across much of the Suwannee River Valley, Nature Coast, and northern Big Bend. A severe drought (level 2 of 4) occupies much of the rest of North Florida, the exception being the far western Panhandle where a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) is still in place. 60-day rainfall departures are still well below normal across all this region, and in some places upwards of 7” below normal. Worsening drought was also found across Central and South Florida in the past week. New areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have been added to portions of coastal West-Central Florida in Manatee, Sarasota, Hardee, DeSoto, and Highlands counties, as well as interior mainland Monroe County in South Florida. The drought in this portion of the state has now begun to become a longer-term concern, with 3-month rainfall departures nearly 4-6” across all Central and South Florida. Additional expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Indian River and Brevard counties along the East Coast. Across the entire state, streamflows are running well below normal in many rivers, streams, and creeks. Additionally, soil moisture levels are at extremely low levels. Some light rainfall with a few frontal passages are possible this week and next week, however there does not appear to be any real relief coming from the drought. As of this outlook, over 95% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 483 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A cold front will continue to bring scattered showers and light rainfall across the central and southern Peninsula this morning, eventually pushing offshore by the mid-afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 0.3-0.4” for most locations, however locally heavier pockets of rainfall could lead to totals upwards of 1”. Given the very dry soils and grounds, this rainfall will be beneficial to the ongoing drought.

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.66 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.98 feet below normal for this time of year.