Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
...Dry and Sunny Conditions Prevail Throughout the Sunshine State... Nearing Record Warmth Across North Florida... Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Concerns Continue Across Northeast Florida... Fog and Low Clouds Possible Across Much of North and Central Florida Overnight... Locally Dense Fog Possible Across Northeast Florida and Western Panhandle...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continue for Most Florida Panhandle and Florida East Coast Beaches; Locally High Risk for Palm Beach County Beaches...
Updated at 8:35 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Northeast FL North & Central Florida |
Locally North & Central FL |
Locally Palm Beach County Panhandle, Space Coast, Treasure Coast West Coast, South FL, Northeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A rinse and repeat from yesterday, and much of the past week, is expected across the Sunshine State as an area of high pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern. Patchy dense fog across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida will dissipate this morning, giving way to sunny, dry, and pleasant conditions this afternoon. High temperatures will remain above to well above average for mid to late November standards, reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s statewide. A few locations may approach record high temperatures this afternoon across North Florida.
The main weather headline today will continue to be sensitive to elevated wildfire concerns as relative humidity values dip to 30-40% across interior Northeast Florida. While winds will generally remain light statewide (less than 10 mph), ongoing significant drought and extremely dry soils/vegetation can lead to easier wildfire ignitions. Please use extreme caution when dealing with any activities involving flame, or with materials that can cause sparks.
Clear and calm conditions overnight will encourage another round of fog and low clouds early Thursday morning across North and Central Florida. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out, especially across the interior Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, upper 50s to lower 60s throughout the Florida Peninsula, and the lower 70s along Southeast Florida and the Florida Keys.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for most Florida Panhandle, Treasure Coast, and Space Coast beaches, with a locally high risk of rip currents outlooked for Palm Beach County. Low risk conditions are expected for all remaining Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along statewide beaches. An isolated breaker in the surf zone of 3’ cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast this afternoon.
Red Tide was observed at background to low concentrations in Bay County, and background to very low concentrations in Gulf and Franklin Counties. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast over the past 7 days (valid 11/14).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Dry air will continue across the Sunshine State, courtesy of a dominant area of high pressure. Relative humidity values will fall to 30-40% across interior Northeast Florida this afternoon which may lead to sensitive to locally elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon, especially for locations that are experiencing long-term significant drought. While winds will generally remain light statewide, extremely dry soils/vegetation can lead to easier wildfire ignition. Areas of fog that develop near any ongoing wildfires or active burns may locally further reduce visibilities. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 60 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 468 acres.
Drought: A frontal passage from 11/9 was the only rainfall of significance across much of the Sunshine State with rainfall totals remaining generally below 1 inch and spotty in nature. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor. Across South Florida, some expansion of the Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions further into Hendry and Glades counties was introduced where 30-day rainfall deficits continue to grow. Similarly, across the Tampa Bay metropolitan region, rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches. Some expansion of Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced to western Pasco and Hernando counties, as well as Hardee and DeSoto, while remaining across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) Drought remain in place where a significant long-term drought has developed. In the past 60 days, rainfall deficits have neared 7 inches in some locations along the I-10 corridor. Streamflows in many streams, creeks, and rivers have dropped below their low thresholds. Rainfall is not anticipated for the next week, at least which will continue to expand the current drought conditions. For the I-95 corridor and East Coast, soils remain saturated from heavy rainfall in October keeping any drought at bay.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 483 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 41 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor has finally returned to nominal background levels, though water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns, including Lake Harney and Sanford, remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning. There are no other riverine concerns statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.78 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.15 feet below normal for this time of year.
