Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, May 17, 2026
...Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Expected this Afternoon Along the I-75 Corridor... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather Outlooked for a Few Locally Strong to Severe Storms... Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours the Primary Hazards... Highs in the 80s and 90s... Feels-like Temperatures Reach the Upper 90s to 100-degrees in South Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 9:03 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Suwannee River Valley I-75 Corridor Rest of Peninsula
|
|
Peninsula |
Statewide (lightning) |
Locally I-75 Corridor |
Iso. I-75 Corridor |
Western Panhandle |
East Coast Panhandle Northwest FL & West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Moisture will continue to increase across the state today as south to southeasterly flow increases around the periphery of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Easterly winds along the East Coast today, where gusts upwards of 20-25 mph will be possible, will send the Atlantic sea breeze inland towards the I-75 corridor this afternoon where it will collide with the West Coast sea breeze. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with a few storms becoming locally strong to severe (50-75% chance of rain). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather throughout much of the Peninsula, with the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River Valley the focus for a few storms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and small hail. Additionally, any slow-moving thunderstorm could lead to nuisance flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor-drainage locations.
High temperatures will soar into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide today, with feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s to near 100-degrees along the I-75 corridor and throughout Southwest Florida.
Tonight, any showers or thunderstorms lingering throughout the Peninsula will slowly dissipate or push offshore after dark (15-30% chance of rain). Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail otherwise. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s throughout much of the state, with the Southeast Metro and Keys only dipping into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Areas of patchy fog may develop towards daybreak Monday across the western Panhandle.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will keep a high risk for rip currents outlooked for all East Coast beaches today, with a moderate risk for Panhandle beaches. A low risk is remains for West Coast and Northwest Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas will remain elevated today along the East Coast, with waves reaching 2-4’. A few waves may reach upwards of 5’ in the surf zone. Panhandle and West Coast beaches can expect surf near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia and Bay counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/8/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to shift further east into the western Atlantic today, bringing the return flow out of the south to southeast which filter more moisture throughout the state. Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds today statewide, through scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze boundaries along the I-75 corridor and through the Suwannee River Valley. Any thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. Breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are expected along the entire East Coast today, with locally higher gusts upwards of 30 mph across coastal Northeast Florida. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 52 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,666 acres.
Drought (5/12/26): Some categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the Panhandle where plentiful rainfall fell. Rainfall totals measured 4 to 6 inches across the northern Panhandle, with localized amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches or more. As a result, the extreme drought across northern Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties has been downgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The exceptional drought across much of Jackson County has also been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) due to this heavy rainfall. Despite rainfall adding up to 1 to 2 inches across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, the severity of the ongoing drought resulted in no changes to the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4). Throughout the Peninsula, rainfall was mostly confined to the I-95 corridor and interior South Florida, with amounts generally between 1-2 inches. This was not enough for any improvements in the drought throughout the Peninsula, with areas of Southeast Florida actually seeing expanding moderate (level 1 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The larger drought picture was otherwise untouched. As a reminder, the cutoff for rainfall on this week’s update was Tuesday (5/12) at 8 AM EDT, thus the heavy rainfall that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be taken into account on next week’s update. This rainfall will likely help with drought conditions across the state, though significant improvements are not expected given just how long this drought has been in place and how severe the long-term rainfall deficits are. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 24% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 456 (11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the I-75 corridor this afternoon and evening, extending through the entire Peninsula and Suwannee River Valley. A few of these storms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will be localized in nature, with most locations seeing generally below 1”. However, any areas that see repeated rounds of heavy downpours could receive upwards of 3-5” of rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.41 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.90 feet below normal for this time of year.
