Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
... Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Along the I-75 Corridor this Afternoon... Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours the Primary Hazards... Sensitive Wildfire Danger Persists Given Ongoing Drought and Wind Gusts Upwards of 20-25 mph this Afternoon... Highs in the 80s and 90s... Feels-like Temperatures Reach the Upper 90s to 100-degrees in West-Central and Southwest Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 8:11 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally SW FL Peninsula
|
|
Iso. Southwest FL |
Locally Statewide |
Locally Southwest FL |
Iso. South FL |
Locally Western Panhandle & Northeast FL |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Any areas of patchy fog throughout Northeast Florida will dissipate by mid-morning as the sun rises. Otherwise, another rinse and repeat of yesterday is expected today as high pressure brings persistent east to southeasterly flow over the state. This will help to push the East Coast sea breeze towards the I-75 corridor this afternoon, colliding with the West Coast sea breeze and helping to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-65% chance of rain). Any of this activity could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-4”.
Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Peninsula gusting upwards of 20-25 mph. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s to near 100-degrees across West-Central and Southwest Florida.
Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset. Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail, which will encourage the development of patchy fog throughout Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle, some of which could be locally dense. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk is remains for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas will increase across Panhandle beaches today, with surf near 2-3’ expected. Surf along the East Coast will also remain elevated today, reaching 2-4’ this afternoon. A few waves upwards of 5’ cannot be ruled out in the surf zone for Treasure Coast beaches. West Coast beaches can expect surf near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia and Bay counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/8/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern today with east to southeasterly winds persisting across the state. These winds will bring gusts upwards of 20-25 mph throughout the Peninsula this afternoon. However, moisture will increase today keeping relative humidities above critical thresholds which will keep the wildfire danger lower. Still, ongoing drought will encourage at least sensitive conditions this afternoon throughout the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the I-75 corridor this afternoon, which could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds capable of sparking new wildfires or reigniting existing ones. Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida towards daybreak Wednesday which can lead to significantly reduced visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 70 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,627 acres.
Drought (5/12/26): Some categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the Panhandle where plentiful rainfall fell. Rainfall totals measured 4 to 6 inches across the northern Panhandle, with localized amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches or more. As a result, the extreme drought across northern Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties has been downgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The exceptional drought across much of Jackson County has also been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) due to this heavy rainfall. Despite rainfall adding up to 1 to 2 inches across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, the severity of the ongoing drought resulted in no changes to the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4). Throughout the Peninsula, rainfall was mostly confined to the I-95 corridor and interior South Florida, with amounts generally between 1-2 inches. This was not enough for any improvements in the drought throughout the Peninsula, with areas of Southeast Florida actually seeing expanding moderate (level 1 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The larger drought picture was otherwise untouched. As a reminder, the cutoff for rainfall on this week’s update was Tuesday (5/12) at 8 AM EDT, thus the heavy rainfall that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be taken into account on next week’s update. This rainfall will likely help with drought conditions across the state, though significant improvements are not expected given just how long this drought has been in place and how severe the long-term rainfall deficits are. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 24% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 460 (-5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and west of the I-75 corridor this afternoon. A few of these storms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will be localized in nature, with most locations seeing generally below 1”. However, any areas that see repeated rounds of heavy downpours could receive upwards of 2-4” of rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.38 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.87 feet below normal for this time of year.
