Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, September 3, 2025
...Stalled Frontal Boundary Across South Florida Keeps Wet and Unsettled Conditions In Place...Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms Across South Florida... Drier Conditions Across North and Central Florida... Localized Flooding Possible South of Lake Okeechobee... Warm and Muggy Conditions Continue Throughout Central and South Florida; Triple Digit Heat Index Values for South FL & Keys...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Nearly Statewide...Minor Coastal Flooding and Tidal Flooding Within St. Johns River Possible Near and During Times of High Tide...Tropical Wave Off West Coast of Africa Producing Disorganized Showers and Thunderstorms (70%) - No Threat to Florida At This Time...
Updated at 9:10 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South FL Central FL
|
Iso. South FL and Keys
|
South FL and Keys |
South Florida Suwannee Valley & Central Florida |
Northeast FL East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Showers and embedded thunderstorms have begun to move onshore along the Southwest Florida coast, and additional rounds of activity will continue throughout the day leading to another wet and active weather day across most of the central and southern Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across South Florida this afternoon and evening (70-80% chance of rain), with more scattered activity across Central Florida and the I-4 corridor (30-55% chance of rain). The stalled front from the last couple of days will dip southward into the southern Peninsula allowing for moisture to pool ahead of it, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across South Florida today for repeated downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding. Dry conditions persist throughout North Florida courtesy of northeasterly winds; however, a shower or embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the Northeast Florida coast along the sea breeze (15-25% chance of rain). Breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph will also continue for portions of the First and Space Coasts throughout the day with the proximity of a nearby upper-level disturbance.
High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon. Heat index values from the Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula will remain in the upper 90s to lower 100s with localized areas across the Florida Keys reaching the middle 100s.
With a nearby upper-level disturbance, showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening and overnight hours across South Florida as they move inland and eastward from the gulf waters (50-75% chance of rain). Elsewhere across the state mostly dry conditions can be expected. Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida and middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form later this week or weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the weekend. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Oceans swells and breezy winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents nearly statewide. West Coast beaches will continue to see a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Large ocean swells of 4-5’ will develop along the Northeast and portions of the Space Coast throughout the day. The rest of the East Coast will see wave heights upwards of 2-4’ develop throughout the afternoon and evening. Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected for most Panhandle beaches, with a few offshore waves reaching 3’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Okaloosa County in Northwest Florida. It was not observed in any samples collected across Southwest Florida or the East Coast (8/29).
Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories have been posted for portions of the tidal St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast for minor coastal flooding and nuisance tidal flooding near and during times of high tide. Persistent northeasterly winds, elevated tides and trapped water within the basin will lead to minor tidal flooding ahead of the next full moon next Sunday. Water levels will reach 1.5-2’ above normally dry ground during times of high tide, with some flooding of lots, parks, and roads in vulnerable areas.
Fire Weather: Although rainfall chances remain low across the Panhandle due to a stalled front across the southern Peninsula, relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds (40-50% RH values). The southern Peninsula will continue to see increased rainfall chances, keeping the wildfire threat low as well. However, the non-tropical upper-level disturbance off the Florida East Coast will continue to promote breezy conditions across Northeast Florida, with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph. Summertime thunderstorms will continue throughout the day, mostly across the southeastern portion of the state. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 9 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 254 acres.
Drought: No changes were made during this week’s drought monitor outlook as much of the regions under drought remain below average in rainfall and haven’t received significant rainfall in the past week. A Severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across Southeast Florida where monthly rainfall deficits remain 2-4” for many locations and an Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists over western Miami-Dade County. Portions of the Nature Coast remain in Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where monthly rainfall totals are likewise at a 2-4” deficit. Portions of the northern Panhandle are under an abnormally dry (emerging drought) category where hit-or-miss thunderstorms have benefited some locations, but not all. Rainfall chances will generally increase across the state this weekend and into next week as a front stalls across North Florida which may alleviate some drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 259 (+11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 2 Florida counties (Holmes & Jackson) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A stalled front across the southern Peninsula will keep rainfall chances elevated today. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding from Lake Okeechobee south and across the Florida Keys where heavy rainfall may lead to localized instances of ponding of water and street flooding, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. Additionally, areas that have already seen heavy rainfall over the last couple of days could see an earlier onset to any localized flooding with additional rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1-2’ can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4’ possible.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have risen into minor flood stage due to recent rainfall and trapped tides from northerly winds. Conditions will remain in minor flood stage through the end of the week. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park and Fisheating Creek at Palmdale and are at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning however are forecast to settle back below Action Stage later today or tonight. There are no other riverine concerns, though localized heavy rainfall across basins may lead to some quick-response rivers seeing water levels rise. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.51 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.74 feet below normal for this time of year.
