Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, May 21, 2026
... Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Across the Peninsula and Big Bend Today, Focused Along the I-75 Corridor.. Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours the Primary Hazards... Sensitive Wildfire Danger Persists Given Ongoing Drought and Wind Gusts Upwards of 20mph this Afternoon... Highs in the 80s and 90s... Feels-like Temperatures Reach the Upper 90s Along the I-75 Corridor.. Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches... Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) Largely Persists on this Week's Drought Monitor Update...
Updated at 9:48 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Statewide
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Iso. SW FL & Panhandle |
Locally Statewide |
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Iso. SW FL |
Locally Panhandle Western Panhandle & Northeast FL |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy to locally dense fog have developed over the Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises. High pressure over the open Atlantic has begun to nudge eastward, causing winds to turn more out of the southeast today. The highest chances for rain today will again be focused across Southwest Florida (40-60%) along any sea breeze boundaries, however this subtle wind shift will also begin to increase chances for rain statewide, with the much of the I-75 corridor carrying a medium (30-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. While there is no organized risk of severe weather or flash flooding, any of today’s activity could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-3”.
Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula gusting upwards of 20 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today along the I-75 corridor which may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida.
Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset. Mostly clear and calm conditions overnight may encourage the development of some patchy fog throughout the Florida Panhandle. A few locally dense spots can not be ruled out. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk remains for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas are largely unchanged today, with wave heights along the East Coast expected to be around 2-3’ this afternoon, with 1-2’ likely for Panhandle beaches. Beaches along the West Coast can expect surf near 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia and Bay counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/15/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern today with east to southeasterly winds persisting across the state. These winds will bring gusts upwards of 20 mph throughout the Eastern Peninsula this afternoon. However, statewide moisture continues to increase today keeping relative humidities above critical thresholds and the overall wildfire danger lower. Still, ongoing drought will encourage at least sensitive conditions this afternoon throughout the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the Peninsula and Big Bend this afternoon, focused mainly along the I-75 corridor, where lightning and gusty/erratic winds could spark new wildfires or reigniting existing ones. Areas of patchy fog may develop across the Florida Panhandle and Northeast Florida towards daybreak Friday which can lead to significantly reduced visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 65 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,134 acres.
Drought (5/19/26): Some slight categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the state, though were very localized in nature. Across the western Panhandle, all of the remaining extreme drought has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) given rainfall of 2-3 inches over the past 10 days or so. Some of the exceptional drought over northern Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, and Jackson counties has been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) where some of the heaviest rainfall in the past 2 weeks has fallen (4-6” or more). Otherwise, the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) throughout the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley was untouched despite some rainfall over the past week. The longer-term rainfall deficits, dating back to the beginning of last Autumn, continue to drive the ongoing drought situation with many streams, creeks, rivers, and lakes well below normal in water levels. The extreme drought (level 3 of 4) throughout Northeast Florida, the I-75 corridor, and interior South Florida was largely untouched, except for slight reductions to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) in western Palm Beach and southern Osceola counties. A moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across portions of Central Florida around and just south of the Orlando metro region and along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 22% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. Looking ahead, a statewide drenching rainfall is not anticipated over the next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus throughout the interior Peninsula, I-75 corridor, and Panhandle which may bring localized drought relief and slow improvements. However, the long-term drought conditions are expected to largely continue.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 466 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and west of the I-75 corridor this afternoon. A few of these storms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will be localized in nature, with most locations seeing generally below 1”. However, any areas that see repeated rounds of heavy downpours could receive upwards of 2-3” of rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.33 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.89 feet below normal for this time of year.
