Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
...One Final Cold Start to the Morning for North Florida...High Pressure Leading to Pleasant Conditions Across the State...Light Sprinkles or Brief Shower for Eastern Coastline Possible...Dry Conditions Throughout the State...Increasing Wildfire Threat for North Florida Given Lack of Rainfall Recent and Long Term Drought...Breezy Winds Persist Throughout Peninsula...Dry Conditions Continue Throughout Overnight...Instances of Fog Possible Early Wednesday Morning for Low-Lying Areas...Dangerous Rip Currents and Surf Along All East Coast Beaches; Moderate Risk Along Panhandle...
Updated at 9:16 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally North Florida |
Northeastern Panhandle and Suwannee Valley | Iso. Suwannee Valley |
East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
One final cold start this morning across North Florida from the recent arctic cold front. High pressure over the southeastern states will weaken and allow for conditions to warm up nicely throughout the day and lead to dry conditions. An upper-level feature off the eastern coastline of Florida and onshore winds may lead to a few brief sprinkles or a light shower closer towards the coast throughout the day, but any activity that develops will remain light and brief (15-20% chance of rain). With ongoing dry conditions across North Florida due to lack of rainfall and longer-term drought conditions, sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will be possible. Breezy winds will linger throughout the Peninsula today reaching upwards of 15-20 mph. Stronger gusts upwards of 25 mph cannot be ruled out along the eastern coastline.
Temperatures will warm up nicely into the upper 50s to middle 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
Dry conditions will continue throughout the overnight hours with some linger sprinkles along the Space Coast. Moisture recovering across the state may help lead to instances of patchy fog early Wednesday morning, especially within low-lying areas, as calm conditions can be expected.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and upper 50s to upper 60s across South Florida.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents continues along all Florida East Coast beaches due to onshore winds and elevated surf. A moderate risk returns along the Panhandle. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Onshore winds and large ocean swells of 4-7’ will linger along the Florida East Coast through today, with larger breaking waves upwards of 8’ possible off the Southeast Florida coast. Northeasterly winds continue to push ocean swells away from the Panhandle and West Coast keeping wave heights near 1-2’ with breaking waves off the Southwest Florida coast near 3’.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in both Bay and Gulf counties and background to low concentrations in Franklin County. Red Tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast (valid 12/12).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue across the state keeping conditions dry throughout the state, except for a few showers along the eastern coastline. Relative humidity values will mostly remain above critical thresholds across the state, except for a portion of the northwestern Panhandle where they could dip near critical thresholds this afternoon (30-35%). Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will linger throughout the Peninsula today, but calm winds return to the Panhandle. Ongoing drought conditions will lead to sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions across North Florida today, especially as little to no rainfall has occurred over the last week. Instances of fog may be possible early Wednesday morning. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 14 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 92 acres.
Drought (12/11): Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches was observed across the Panhandle and North Florida over the past week as numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area the past weekend and early this week. As a result, this week’s Drought Monitor outlook features some reduction in drought categories across much of North Florida. Last week’s Exceptional Drought has been downgraded to an Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) across portions of Jackson, Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, and Madison counties. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place cross much of the I-10 corridor from Baker County to Holmes County in North Florida, with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) across the rest of the western Panhandle and southward across the southern portions of the Suwannee River Valley. Some slight reduction in the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was seen over coastal West-Central Florida of northern Hillsborough and Pinellas County where some localized rainfall totals of 4-6 inches was observed in the past week. However, just south of that, expansion of the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was added over southern Sarasota and coastal Charlotte Counties where rainfall largely missed. A general couple of tenths of rain were observed over South Florida in the past week, not enough to curb the developing drought. Expansion of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was added to this week’s outlook across much of interior South Florida, with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions expanding to the Southeast Florida coastline. Although shorter-term rainfall departures are above normal due to the recent rainfall, portions of North Florida are still under a long-term rainfall deficit (60-90 days) and drought conditions will persist. Additionally, rainfall chances will remain very low over the next week, or longer, which may lead to a resumption of deteriorating drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 414 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 16 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.53 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.20 feet below normal for this time of year.
