Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, December 18, 2025
...Scattered to Widespread Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Expected Across the Panhandle Today... Nuisance Flooding and a Few Locally Strong Thunderstorms Possible... Activity Spreads Eastward This Evening with Diminishing Coverage in Activity Overnight... Cold Frontal Passage After Midnight Across the Panhandle with a Few Isolated Showers... Highs in the 80s this Afternoon for the Peninsula; 60s for the Panhandle... Patchy Dense Fog Development Possible Across Interior South Florida Overnight... Lows Cool Off in the 40s and 50s for the Panhandle Overnight... Marine Hazards Increase Today with Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast...
Updated at 10:04 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| North Florida & I-95 Corridor | Iso. Forgotten & Nature Coast | Iso. Big Bend |
|
Locally Interior South FL |
Southeast FL & Panhandle East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
An upper-level disturbance will continue its approach towards Florida over the northern Gulf waters today ushering in abundant tropical moisture amidst warm southerly flow. As a result, scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the Panhandle this morning as a large area of rain over the Gulf moves onshore (80-100% chance of rain). Towards this afternoon, enough daytime heating may allow for a few additional locally strong thunderstorms to develop across the Big Bend and Nature Coast, though confidence is low in any widespread thunderstorm activity. If any stronger thunderstorms do develop, a few strikes of lightning or even a brief waterspout along the Forgotten and Nature Coast cannot be ruled out. Regardless, a few locally heavy downpours will accompany the heavier shower activity today across the Panhandle which could lead to localized instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water. This activity will stream north and eastward throughout the day, with Northeast Florida getting in on some of the action later this afternoon and evening with a few isolated to scattered showers (35-50% chance of rain), however the bulk of the rain is expected to pass to the north. A few coastal showers or locally embedded thunderstorms may also drift onshore across the I-95 corridor today, though any activity will be brief in nature (20-40% chance of rain). Mostly dry conditions are expected across Southwest Florida today.
High temperatures will crest into the upper 60s to middle 70s across North Florida, with lower to middle 80s expected across Central and South Florida.
A few scattered showers may linger across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida early overnight as the upper-level disturbance departs the region to the north (40-60% chance of rain). After midnight, a cold frontal passage will bring a few additional isolated showers to the Panhandle (20-30% chance of rain). A few brief sprinkles or an isolated shower is also possible across the I-4 and I-95 corridors overnight (15-20% chance of rain). Low-level moisture will linger across interior South Florida which may promote patchy dense fog development towards daybreak Friday. Low temperatures will begin to cool off again across the Panhandle as the cold front makes its passage, with temperatures reaching the upper 40s over the western Panhandle and middle 50s across the eastern Panhandle.
Lows in the 60s are expected for all the Peninsula, with coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys only reaching the lower to middle 70s.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Onshore southerly winds will bring a return of a high risk for rip currents for most Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches today. A moderate risk for rip currents will persist along the rest of the East Coast due to elevated ocean swells. A low risk is expected for all West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights along the East Coast will increase throughout the day today, nearing 3-5’ for nearly all beaches. Similarly, onshore winds and a building ocean swell will bring surf of 3-4’ for all Panhandle beaches, with some waves upwards of 5’ overnight tonight in the surf zone. Waves will remain near 1’ for all West Coast beaches today before a slight increase to 1-2’ this evening and overnight.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in both Bay and Gulf counties and background to low concentrations in Franklin County. Red Tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast (valid 12/12).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: A wet weather day is expected across much of the drought-stricken North Florida as an upper-level disturbance promotes scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Deep tropical moisture and rainfall will keep the overall wildfire threat very low today, despite the dry background conditions. However, a few embedded locally strong thunderstorms could spread existing or spark new wildfires through a few lightning strikes and gusty/erratic winds. Dry conditions are expected across much of Central and South Florida, though relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds. Instances of patchy fog will be possible throughout interior South Florida by sunrise Friday morning, which could reduce visibilities around any existing fires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 12 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 99 acres.
Drought (12/18): Plentiful rainfall of 3-6 inches has fallen over much of the Panhandle over the past two weeks which has allowed for some modest relief in the long-term drought conditions, outlined in this week’s latest Drought Monitor outlook. West of SR 231, any severe drought from last week’s outlook has been reduced to a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where the heaviest rainfall has fallen. A Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) is still in place across the Big Bend region, though has been reduced back to a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) over the I-10 corridor across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley. Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across northern Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where 2-4 inch rainfall totals have fallen in the past two weeks, with parts of Jackson, Calhoun, and Madison counties reduced to a Severe Drought (level 2 of 4). However, 60-90 day rainfall departures remain below normal (3-5 inches below normal) over all North Florida which has kept at least some drought category in place despite the recent rainfall. On the contrary, rainfall has been harder to come by across West-Central Florida near the Tampa Bay metro where a Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) has been slightly expanded to include more of Hardee and DeSoto counties. Here, 3-month rainfall departures have begun to near 7 inches in some localized areas. A Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) remains in place across nearly all South Florida south of Lake Okeechobee, with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions in place along coastal Southeast Florida. Additional rainfall is expected on Thursday (12/18) across the Panhandle which may lead to additional drought relief, though will be reflected in the next week’s outlook. Dry and warm conditions will return across the state this weekend and early next week, which may bring additional drought deterioration, especially over Central and South Florida.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 419 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 18 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Beneficial rainfall is expected across much of the Panhandle and North Florida throughout the day with scattered to widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Some of this activity could produce a few locally heavy downpours and localized instances of nuisance flooding, however widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Rainfall totals between 0.5-1” are expected across the Panhandle, with locally heavier amounts upwards of 3” possible.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.54 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.17 feet below normal for this time of year.
