Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, January 22, 2026
...Gradual Warming Trend Continues...Showers Pinned Along Southeast Florida Coastline May Bring Heavy Rainfall Rates...Minor Street Flooding and Ponding Water Possible for Activity That Moves Onshore...Spotty Rain Chances Return to Western Florida Panhandle Today...Areas of Fog and Low Clouds Possible Tonight, Particularly for North Florida...Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents for all East Coast Beaches, Moderate Risk Continues for Florida Panhandle...Low Wildfire Threat Maintained Statewide...
Updated at 9:57 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. Western Florida Panhandle & Southeast Florida |
Statewide |
North Florida Iso. Elsewhere |
Metro & Coastal Southeast Florida |
East Coast Florida Panhandle & Northeast Flroida West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The gradual warming trend will continue across the Sunshine State, courtesy of an area of high pressure positioned between two frontal boundaries. Afternoon temperatures will trend above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s across North Florida and the middle 70s to even isolated pockets of the lower 80s south of the I-4 corridor.
Showers currently pinned along the Southeast Florida coastline will continue to increase in coverage and potentially intensity through the afternoon hours (50-70% chance of rain). While isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours of the day, rainfall rates will be the primary trend to monitor as shower and thunderstorm activity will be slow-moving along the Southeast Florida Coast. The main forecast uncertainty is how far inland rain activity may advance versus remain just offshore within the coastal zones. Should heavier rainfall move onshore, minor street flooding and ponding water cannot be ruled out along and east of the I-95 corridor, with localized rainfall totals in excess of 3” possible. Farther north, rain chances will gradually return to the western Florida Panhandle today (30-45% chance of rain), with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Temperatures continue to moderate tonight, with lows in the 40s and 50s across North and Central Florida and the 60s through South Florida. Lingering low-level moisture within today’s prevailing easterly flow may support the development of fog and low clouds tonight into Friday morning, with the greatest potential for reduced visibilities across North Florida and the Nature Coast.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents for all Florida East Coast beaches today due to onshore winds and lingering elevated surf. A moderate risk of rip currents continues for many Florida Panhandle beaches, with a low risk persisting along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights will continue to gradually subside along the Florida Atlantic Coast today, with breakers in the surf zone still reaching 2-4’ through the afternoon. Locally higher waves upwards of 5’ cannot be ruled out along portions of the Space Coast. Elsewhere, wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in Bay and Gulf counties and background to very low concentrations in Franklin and Walton counties. In Southwest Florida, Red Tide was also observed at background concentrations in Sarasota, Charlotte, and offshore Collier County. It was observed at low concentrations offshore Monroe County (valid 1/16/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Relative humidity values continue to recover across the Sunshine State today, courtesy of prevailing easterly winds. While values will remain well above critical thresholds statewide, pockets of 40-45% relative humidities can be expected across interior portions of North Florida throughout the Suwannee River Valley. The overall wildfire threat today will remain low; however, winds may become breezy at times through the Florida Peninsula (10-20 mph). With expanding drought and long-term dry conditions, locally sensitive wildfire conditions continue in the forecast this afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds may develop tonight, leading to further reductions in visibility near or around any ongoing wildfires or burns. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 36 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2,550 acres.
Drought (1/22/26): Light precipitation was observed across Florida over the past 7 days, with portions of the interior Florida Panhandle receiving precipitation as snowfall! However, rain and snow totals of 0.25 to 1” were insufficient to produce meaningful drought improvement. Rainfall totals continue to trend below for this time of year, both in the middle to long-range guidance, and streamflows across North Florida remain below low-flow thresholds. As a result, expansions of both moderate (level 1 of 4) and severe (level 2 of 4) drought were observed throughout the Sunshine State, particularly for the Florida Big and areas south of the I-4 corridor. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists over the interior eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend as 60-day rainfall deficits continue to run at 2-3.5” below normal for this time of year. This now brings over 92% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse on this week’s Drought Monitor update.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 469 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 29 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.00 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.71 feet below normal for this time of year.
