Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, March 15, 2026
...Active Weather Pattern Expected for Sunshine State...Widespread Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Across Northeast Florida and Florida Peninsula This Afternoon; A Few Thunderstorms Become Strong to Locally Severe...Flooding and Ponding Water Possible Through Southeast Florida Urban Corridor...An Evolving Squall-Line May Bring Multi-Hazardous Severe Weather Threat to North Florida Tonight into Monday Morning...Primary Concerns of Straight-Line Damaging Winds, Tornadoes, and Instances of Hail...Have Multiple Ways to Receive Weather Alerts Tonight!...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Along Florida Panhandle and East Coast; High Risk for Southeast Florida Beaches...
Updated at 10:05 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Statewide
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Western Florida Panhandle Florida Big Bend |
Western Florida Panhandle Florida Big Bend & Florida Peninsula |
Statewide |
Southeast Florida |
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Southeast Florida Coast Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
An active weather day can be expected across the Sunshine State today (and tonight) as we are monitoring the evolution of a strong frontal system making its way across the eastern United States. A mixture of sunshine and clouds will set the stage for a warm afternoon with high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s statewide. Rain and thunderstorms chances will increase through the daytime heating hours across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula, courtesy of deep southerly flow and the daily sea breeze (60-90% chance of rain). A few of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe and pose the risk of locally damaging winds (45-60 mph), lightning, and intense rainfall rates. Some Florida Peninsula locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity, increasing the risk of ponding water and flooding throughout low-lying/flood-prone urban corridors.
While thunderstorm activity will gradually subside from south to north across the Florida Peninsula afternoon, attention quickly turns to a likely squall-line containing strong to severe thunderstorms advancing eastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Computer forecast models indicate that the squall-line will likely arrive to the western Florida Panhandle early Monday morning, progress along the I-10 corridor during the pre-dawn hours, reaching the Florida Big Bend by the Monday morning commute. As with many overnight severe weather set-ups, there are several forecast uncertainties and trends that will need to be monitored through the day; however, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms along the Florida Panhandle for straight-line winds existing within any organized segments of thunderstorm activity and isolated tornadoes that develop along the line’s leading edge. One trend to closely monitor tonight will be a greater tornado potential within any clusters of thunderstorms that develop ahead of the primary line of thunderstorms; the SPC has placed a localized Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Florida counties adjacent to the southeastern Alabama border where ingredients may be more supportive for tornadic activity. Please be sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts tonight into Monday morning!
Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s can be expected tonight, with a sharp return of frost and freeze conditions expected along the Florida Panhandle early next week.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for Florida Panhandle, Northeast Florida, Space Coast, and Treasure Coast beaches today, with a high risk of rip currents residing along the Southeast Florida coastline. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along Florida Gulf Coast beaches today, building to 2-4’ overnight. Wave heights of 3-4’ can be expected along all Florida East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton, Bay, Escambia, Gulf, and Franklin counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/13/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A pattern change is on the horizon, with a strong frontal system moving over the eastern U.S.; southerly winds of 10-15 mph can be expected today with gusts 15-20 mph possible. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds statewide, with increasing rain chances expanding through Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula by this afternoon (60-90% chance of rain). Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. While the widespread wildfire threat will remain generally low, we will maintain locally sensitive wildfire conditions today for locations experiencing the greatest drought and dry soil/vegetation. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 51 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,225 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 503 (-7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 37 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Southeast Florida I-95 corridor today. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates (upwards of 2” per hour) which may result in quick areas of flooding and ponding water throughout the flood-prone urban areas. Localized rainfall totals in excess of 3-5” cannot be ruled out, especially in areas that experience multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity as the East and West Coast sea breeze boundaries merge. Elsewhere across the state, 1-2” of rain can be expected, with locally higher amounts of 2-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
