Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds along the Panhandle coast today has resulted in a moderate to high risk for rip currents. Stronger onshore winds for West Central Florida will result in a moderate risk.  Winds shifting to the east has resulted in a moderate risk for East Central Florida For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Surf will increase this afternoon for Panhandle Beaches, with peak wave heights reaching 2-4’. A High Surf Advisory goes into effect at midnight for Westen Panhandle Beaches, where wave heights of 4-6’ are expected. Elsewhere, surf will remain calm at 1-2’.

 

Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Taylor County over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/12/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.

 

Fire Weather: Deep tropical moisture continues to pool across much of North Florida today along and south of a stalled frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected as a result, primarily along the I-10 corridor. Seasonable moisture will reside across the remainder of the Peninsula with sea breeze showers and storms expected to develop along the I-95 corridor. Any of today’s thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Recent hot and dry weather combined with long-term drought conditions will promote at least locally sensitive wildfire conditions across the Peninsula, especially with the risk of lightning-based ignitions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 50 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 12,600 acres.

 

Drought (6/9/26): Additional improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update throughout much of the state with the recent wet pattern bringing beneficial rainfall. Across portions of the northern and far western Panhandle, areas of moderate drought have been reduced to abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions on this week’s update. These areas have seen rainfall departures 8-10 inches above normal since the beginning of May which has quickly brought an end to the worst drought conditions. Many areas in the severe drought (level 2 of 4) to exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida have also seen one or even two category drought reductions with recent rainfall over the past month. The areas of exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) are now found in localized pockets of the Suwannee River Valley and along the Forgotten Coast. The heaviest rainfall in the past 7 days was observed across South Florida and along the I-95 corridor. Many of these areas have also seen one category of drought reduction after receiving 1-3” of rainfall, or more, since last week. Localized pockets of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remain across West Central and interior South Florida due to the scattered nature of recent thunderstorm activity. In general, however, much of the I-75 corridor has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) with 30-day rainfall departures returning closer to normal or even above normal. Drought conditions along the immediate Southeast Coast continue to lessen with abnormally dry conditions (receding drought) expanding. 95% of Florida remains in at least moderate drought, with only ~4% of the state under exceptional drought – a 6% reduction in exceptional drought coverage compared to last week. Looking ahead, drier conditions will prevail throughout North Florida to end this week before a wetter pattern returns this weekend and to start next week. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to favor the Peninsula with daily sea breeze activity, which will bring additional drought improvements.

 

 

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 411 (-7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 10 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

 

Flash Flooding: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle today where rounds of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms may lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts for the Western Panhandle will be 1-3’, although higher totals cannot be ruled out. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Southeast Florida where heavy downpours may lead to isolated urban street flooding. Rainfall amounts will generally remain around 1-2” for most locations along the I-95 corridor and across the Panhandle/Big Bend.

 

 

Riverine Flooding: The Shoal River near Crestview, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, and Yellow River near Milligan are expected to reach Action Stage (bank-full) later this week due to multiple days of heavy rainfall over the water basins. Additional riverine responses are possible across the Panhandle and Big Bend and updates are expected later this week as daily rainfall continues to bring increasing water levels to area rivers, creeks, and streams. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.11 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.07 feet below normal for this time of year.