Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, March 1, 2026
...Dense Fog this AM for Much of North FL and the Keys...Reduced Visibilities Across I-75 Corridor and Alligator Alley Due yo Fog and Wildfire Smoke - Dangerous Drivig Conditions...Showers and Thunderstorms Expected for South Florida Today...Stront to Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Southeast Florida - Lightning, Damaging Wind Gusts, Hail and Heavy Downpours...Mostly Sunny for Rest of State...Another Round of Fog Possible Tonight; Dense Fog for Big Bend...Moderate Rip Current Risk for Numerous Beaches; High Risk for Portions of Space Coast...
Updated at 8:59 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Southeast FL Treasure Coast & South FL |
|
Treasure Coast & South FL |
Locally Interior Bend Bend & South FL Statewide |
Iso Southeast Florida |
Locally North & Interior South FL Central Florida |
Space Coast East Coast & Panhandle West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Dense Fog conditions have developed this morning across much of North Florida, as well as portions of the Florida Keys, reducing visibilities. These foggy conditions and low clouds across the state will continue to lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours. Smoke from the National Wildfire in South Florida may create hazardous driving conditions along portions of I-75 (Alligator Alley) throughout the day, but especially this morning with any fog mixed in. Isolated showers ahead of a frontal boundary draped across the southern Peninsula will continue this morning. As the day progresses and conditions warm up, additional scattered shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will develop from the Treasure Coast and through South Florida (25-60% chance of rain). With the sea breeze developing and pushing inland, stronger thunderstorm activity may be possible this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along Southeast Florida as thunderstorms developing during the peak heating times of the day may become strong to severe. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging winds (50-60 mph), large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy downpours. For the rest of the state, mostly dry and sunny conditions can be expected behind the frontal boundary. Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will be possible for the interior Big Bend and Suwannee Valley where relative humidity values are expected to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon over existing drought conditions.
High temperatures will reach well into the 70s and lower 80s across the state today.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening hours as the front slowly makes its way over the Straits and begins to wash out. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected to dissipate during the overnight hours; however, lingering isolated showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two may be possible closer towards the coastlines and coastal waters overnight across South Florida (15-35% chance of rain). Low-level moisture and calm winds will bring back the chance for fog to develop overnight and into Monday morning throughout the state, with dense fog possible across much of the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Fog mixed in with wildfire smoke, especially across South Florida, will significantly reduce visibilities.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, upper 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
Rip Currents: Calm marine conditions will create a moderate risk for rip currents along numerous Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with portions of the First and Space Coasts seeing a high risk. A low risk can be expected elsewhere. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights across the state are expected to remain near 1-3’ with locally elevated surf of 4’ along portions of the First and Space Coasts.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions in two samples from Bay County. It was not observed along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (valid 2/27/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Dense Fog has developed this morning throughout North Florida, as well as portions of Monroe County, and will reduce visibilities until it lifts and dissipates. Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions can be expected across the interior Panhandle and Big Bend where relative humidity values will fall near critical thresholds late this afternoon. Elsewhere across the state, relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected to develop across South Florida, and portions of West-Central Florida, today as a frontal boundary stalls bringing much needed rainfall to the region. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Another round of patchy fog can be expected early Monday morning throughout the state, with dense fog conditions likely developing throughout the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 60 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,584 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 469 (-32) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 36 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will bring locally heavy downpours across portions of the Treasure Coast and South Florida today. Rainfall totals upwards of an inch are possible; however, locally heavier rainfall could produce totals of 2-3” this afternoon and evening. Nuisance ponding of water or localized flooding over urban areas cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: Bruce Creek near Redbay has reached Action State (bank-full) this weekend due to recent rainfall. There are no other riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.27 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.25 feet below normal for this time of year.
