Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, November 21, 2025
...Patchy Dense Fog Across North Florida Gives Way to Sunny and Dry Conditions Throughout the Sunshine State... Isolated Shower Possible Across Western Panhandle Today and Overnight... Nearing Record Warmth Across North Florida... Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Concerns Continue... Fog and Low Clouds Possible Across Much of North and Central Florida Overnight... Locally Dense Fog Possible Across Northeast and West-Central Florida... Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continue for Most Florida Panhandle and Florida East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 8:49 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally North FL North & Central Florida |
Locally Northeast FL & Big Bend North & Central FL |
Panhandle, Space Coast & Treasure Coast West Coast, Northeast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Locally dense fog has developed across much of the Panhandle and interior Northeast Florida this morning and Dense Fog Advisories will remain in effect until mid-morning. This morning fog will dissipate during the morning hours giving way to another sunny and dry day across the Sunshine State as an area of high pressure continues to dominate the local weather. A weak upper-level disturbance traversing the Ohio Valley will have an attendant cold front draped southward across the Southeast U.S. which may bring an isolated shower to the far western Panhandle this afternoon, though any activity will remain brief and light in nature (10-15% chance of rain). High temperatures will remain above average for mid to late November standards, reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s statewide. A few locations may approach record high temperatures this afternoon across North Florida.
Although winds will remain light and relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds this afternoon (40-50% RH values), sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions may develop this afternoon across North Florida where ongoing drought and extremely dry soils/vegetation may lead to easier wildfire ignition. Please use extreme caution when dealing with any activities involving flame, or with materials that can cause sparks.
An isolated shower is possible across the western Panhandle overnight (10-15% chance of rain), with clear and calm conditions prevailing elsewhere encouraging another round of fog and low clouds early Saturday morning across portions of North and Central Florida. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out, especially across interior Northeast and West-Central Florida. Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley, with upper 50s to middle 60s throughout the remainder of the Panhandle and Florida Peninsula. Lows will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across coastal Southeast Florida and the Florida Keys.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for most Florida Panhandle, Space Coast, and Treasure Coast beaches. Low risk conditions are expected for all other beaches across the state. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of around 1’ can be expected for all Gulf facing beaches today, with waves of 1-2’ along all East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to low concentrations in Bay County, and background to very low concentrations in Gulf and Franklin Counties. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast over the past 7 days (valid 11/14).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Dry air will continue across the Sunshine State, courtesy of a dominant area of high pressure. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds this afternoon across the state (40-50% RH values), though ongoing drought and very dry soils/vegetation may still lead to sensitive to locally elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon, especially for locations that are experiencing the most significant long-term drought. Areas of fog that develop near any ongoing wildfires or active burns may locally further reduce visibilities. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 57 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 641 acres.
Drought (11/20): The past week was almost entirely dry across the entire Sunshine State as temperatures warmed to above seasonable levels. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor and further degradation was seen. Across South Florida, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced across interior Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties with expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) towards the Southeast coastline. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was also introduced across Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades county, as well as around Lake Okeechobee where rainfall departures from the past month have neared 2-3 inches. Moderate Drought remains in place across much of West-Central Florida with further expansion into Polk county and northward along the entire Nature Coast. Rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches across West-Central Florida. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) have remained in place, with expansion southeastward of the Extreme Drought into much of Suwannee, Columbia, and western Baker County. Severe Drought was also added to much of the Forgotten Coast along Taylor and Dixie counties. An Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) was introduced to northern Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where streamflows have reached very low levels, vegetation has become very dry, and agricultural impacts have worsened. This is the first Exceptional Drought seen in the state of Florida since February 2012. Long-term rainfall departures continue to decline across the Panhandle, and significant rainfall is not expected over the next week as temperatures remain above seasonable levels. As such, worsening drought conditions are expected over the next week across much of the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 494 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 42 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor has finally returned to nominal background levels, though water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns, including Lake Harney and Sanford, remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning. There are no other riverine concerns statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.76 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.16 feet below normal for this time of year.
