Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, March 2, 2026
...Dense Fog this AM for Much of Northeast FL and the Keys...Showers for I-95 Corridor and Eastern Peninsula...Thunderstorms Expected for Southwest Florida Today...Locally Strong Thunderstorm Cannot Be Ruled Out...Dry Conditions for North Florida...Breezy Wind Gusts Increasing Later Today...Warm Temperatures Today in 70s and 80s...Shower Activity Dissipating Tonight...Patchy Fog Possible Early Tuesday Morning Along the I-10 Corridor...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for East Coast; Moderate Risk for Panhandle...
Updated at 9:10 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Southwest Florida South Florida |
|
Iso. South Florida |
Locally Interior Bend Bend & South FL Statewide |
Iso Southwest Florida |
I-10 Corridor Northern Florida |
Southeast Florida East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of dense fog have developed this morning across portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida leading to reduced visibilities. Additional areas of patchy fog have also developed throughout the state creating reduced visibilities. Showers remain offshore along Southeast Florida this morning, but going throughout the day onshore winds and daytime heating will lead to additional shower activity developing. Isolated to widely scattered showers can be expected to develop mostly along the I-95 corridor and across the eastern Peninsula before pushing inland towards the western coast (20-40% chance of rain). Thunderstorm activity will remain limited, but an isolated thunderstorm across West-Central and South Florida will be possible. Throughout the rest of the state mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the drier conditions across the interior Big Bend where relative humidity values are expected to dip near critical thresholds (35-40%). A weak cold front will move into Northeast Florida and will cause gusty winds to develop throughout the day, especially along the eastern peninsula. Wind gusts will reach upwards of 15-25 mph by the afternoon hours. High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s across the state this afternoon.
Shower activity will linger through the evening hours before dissipating or shifting offshore. A few showers may continue to linger through the evening hours, mainly near the coastlines and adjacent coastal waters (20-30% chance of rain). Instances of dense fog will be possible throughout the I-10 corridor and northern Florida early Tuesday morning, with additional areas of patchy fog throughout the state. Elevated winds overnight may limit the potential for fog development early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida, lower to middle 60s across Central Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast. A moderate risk can also be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches. All other beaches can expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Northeasterly to easterly winds are pushing ocean swells of 3-4’ towards the Florida East Coast today. Panhandle and West Coast beaches can expect wave heights to remain near 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions in two samples from Bay County. It was not observed along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (valid 2/27/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Dense Fog has developed this morning across portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida this morning, reducing visibilities. Additional areas of patchy fog have also developed this morning throughout the state, but generally fog and low clouds will continue to lift and dissipate throughout the morning. Low-level moisture remaining in place, along with the help of the sea breeze, will give way to isolated to widely scattered showers developing along the I-95 corridor and the eastern Peninsula this afternoon before pushing inland. An embedded thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across West-Central and South Florida this afternoon and early in the evening given daytime heating. Elsewhere across the state dry conditions can be expected. Relative humidity values look to remain above critical thresholds; however across the interior Big Bend they will approach critical thresholds this afternoon (35-40%). Wind gusts are expected to increase throughout the day reaching near 15-25 mph, especially along the eastern Peninsula. Another round of patchy fog will be possible overnight and into Tuesday morning, but ongoing elevated winds may limit the potential for dense fog. Fog combined with wildfire smoke will reduce visibilities even further, creating hazardous driving conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 61 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,485 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 467 (-2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Afternoon shower activity will keep rainfall totals near 0.5-1” along portions of the South Florida coastlines. Any thunderstorm activity that develops will be capable of producing a quick 1-2” of rainfall at times. Nuisance flooding and localized ponding of water cannot be ruled out during quick downpours, especially over urban areas.
Riverine Flooding: Bruce Creek near Redbay has reached Action State (bank-full) this weekend due to recent rainfall. There are no other riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.29 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.22 feet below normal for this time of year.
