Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, June 22, 2026
... Isolated to Scattered Showers and Storms Statewide This Afternoon... Focus for Activity Across the Big Bend & Southwest FL... Any Storms will be Accompanied by Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Torrential Downpours... Highs in the 90s Statewide... Heat Indices in the Middle to Upper 100s Across the Peninsula; Heat Advisories May be Issued... Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Across Panhandle and Northeast Florida Beaches...Low Risk of Rip Currents Elsewhere...
Updated at 8:46 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Statewide
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|
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Iso. West-Central FL |
Peninsula Statewide |
Iso. Southwest FL |
Locally Northeast & East-Central FL |
Panhandle Northeast FL Rest of Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Area of high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic today, nosing into South Florida and the southern Gulf. This area of high pressure will filter in a bit drier air compared to previous days throughout the state with rainfall chances returning to isolated to widely scattered (25-50% chance of rain). The focus for sea breeze shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon is expected to be across the Big Bend, where southwesterly flow will favor a Gulf Sea breeze to push inland, and across interior Southwest Florida where the West and East Coast sea breezes will collide. Any thunderstorm activity could become locally strong and capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and torrential downpours. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.
High temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide. Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach or exceed 100-degrees across much of the state. The hottest conditions are expected throughout the Peninsula where localized areas will see heat indices in the middle to upper 100s. Heat Advisories may be issued later this afternoon should conditions warrant.
Tonight, any shower or thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening before dissipating or pushing offshore (15-30% chance of rain). Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat. Areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out across interior Northeast Florida by daybreak Tuesday.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Panhandle beaches. Locally elevated onshore winds will bring a moderate risk to Northeast Florida as well. A low risk persists for all other beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will remain low today along all Panhandle shorelines, with waves expected be near 2-3’. All other statewide beaches can expected surf near 1-2’.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations offshore Pinellas and Hillsborough counties over the past week. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 6/19/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no current coastal flood alerts for the state.
Fire Weather: Although drier air will filter into the state today, keeping rainfall chances isolated to scattered, relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds statewide keeping the overall wildfire threat low. Still, any thunderstorm activity could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. A predominate westerly flow in recent days/weeks has kept drier conditions across coastal West-Central Florida, which may encourage sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon. Ongoing wildfires throughout Miami-Dade County will continue to produce dense smoke, bringing poor air quality today. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 44 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 27,564 acres.
Drought (6/16/26): Very little to no changes were made to the drought across North Florida on this week’s update, with many areas keeping their drought category from last week’s update. Exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) remains across localized portions of the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, with extreme drought (level 3 of 4) surrounding that. Throughout Central and South Florida, some reductions in the drought were observed across West-Central and interior South Florida. Some of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in these areas has been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4), including in Collier, Hendry, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Coastal areas of Collier and mainland Monroe counties is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Some heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor has brought moderate drought conditions down to abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions in Brevard, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties. All other remaining drought areas saw little to no change in this week’s update. Recent flash flooding over North Florida will likely promote more substantial drought improvements across these areas in next week’s update, with more seasonable distributions of showers and storms across the Peninsula likely providing some localized categorical improvements. Limited observed rainfall across the Western half of the peninsula will likely lead to degradations in the drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 338 (-17) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 8 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the state may be slow-moving and capable of producing nuisance flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: Flash flooding over the past few days has prompted riverine responses across the Florida Panhandle. The following gauges are expected to reach or are currently in minor flood stage: Escambia River near Century, Blackwater River near Baker , Shoal River near Crestview, Shoal River near Mossy Head, Bruce Creek near Redbay, and the Choctawatchee River near Bruce-Ebro. Numerous other gauges are in or forecast to reach Action Stage (bank-full). River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Escambia River, Blackwater River, and Shoal River. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.01 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.22 feet below normal for this time of year.
