Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, July 7, 2025
...Active Weather Pattern Continues Across Sunshine State Today...Widespread Rain and Thunderstorm Activity Expected...A Few Locally Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon...Torrential Downpours and Areas of Localized Flooding Possible...Triple Digit Heat Indices Forecast for Much of Northeast and South Florida This Afternoon...Patchy Fog Possible Tonight...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents Continue for Most North Florida Coastlines...Chantal Remains Tropical Depression Over Mid-Atlantic States; No Threat to Florida...
Updated at 9:25 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide Florida Panhandle |
Statewide |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
Northeast & South Florida Statewide |
Iso. Suwannee River Valley & Northeast Florida |
North Florida Peninsula |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The typical summertime thunderstorm pattern will return across the Sunshine State in the wake of the active and wet pattern last week. Showers and thunderstorms remain along the Panhandle coastline, and they will continue to gradually move inland throughout the day. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop along the sea breeze later this afternoon and evening, especially across North and South Florida (50-75% chance of rain). The Gulf sea breeze will dominate courtesy of southerly to southwesterly winds, allowing for shower and thunderstorm activity to generally move west to east across the Peninsula. Embedded locally strong thunderstorms will be possible, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and heavy downpours. Instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water will be possible with heavy downpours, especially for areas that have seen recently heavy rainfall over the last week.
Seasonably warm and humid conditions can be expected across the state as high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon and heat index values reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-105-degrees).
Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before dissipating and moving offshore with the sea breeze. A few lingering coastal showers and embedded rumbles of thunder cannot b ruled out throughout the overnight and early morning hours (15-30% chance of rain). With coastal showers continuing into the overnight hours, they will likely begin to drift onshore near or after sunrise Monday morning.
Low temperatures will continue to fall into the 70s and lower 80s.
Tropical Depression Chantal: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Tropical Depression Chantal was located about 70 miles east-northeast of Danville, Virginia and moving northeastward at 15 mph and this motion should continue. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph and little change in strength is forecast. Chantal poses no threat to Florida.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along numerous North Florida beaches. A low risk can be expected for Florida Peninsula beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected along statewide beaches.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/27).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Abundant moisture will help scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the state throughout the daytime hours. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds, courtesy of a very moist tropical airmass. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent and erratic winds, which could spread new or ongoing wildfires over areas that have missed out on the recent heavier rainfall; however, saturated soils/vegetation will largely limit the wildfire threat statewide. Instances of locally patchy fog possible be possible early in the morning. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 15 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 467 acres.
Drought: The active and unsettled weather pattern across Florida continued through the week; however, it is important to note that rainfall that has occurred since Tuesday (7/1) is not included in this Drought Monitor update (7/3). Some improvements were noted to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness occurred across the Florida Peninsula, though areas of severe drought (level 2 of 4) and extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persisted in some localized pockets where significant long-term deficits in rainfall and streamflow consisted. Widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm activity this week will work to reduce and improve drought conditions statewide on the subsequent Drought Monitor.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 148 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). Zero Florida counties have an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Typical summertime thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening will create instances of heavy downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water. Areas across the Peninsula could see an earlier onset of possible flooding with the recent heavy rainfall over the last few days. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Multiple rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely result in water level rises along West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, streams, and waterways. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park could rise near or into Action Stage (bank-full). For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.41 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.09 feet below normal for this time of year.
