Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, July 6, 2025
...Active Weather Pattern Continues Across Sunshine State Today...Widespread Rain and Thunderstorm Activity Expected...A Few Locally Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon...Torrential Downpours and Areas of Flooding Become the Primary Forecast Concern for Central Florida...Triple Digit Heat Indices Forecast for Panhandle and Big Bend This Afternoon...Patchy Fog Possible Tonight...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents Continue for Most Florida Coastlines...Tropical Storm Chantal Chantal Makes Landfall in South Carolina; Forecast to Continue Moving Inland and Weaken...
Updated at 10:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide Florida Panhandle |
Statewide |
Locally Peninsula Iso. Statewide |
Panhandle & Southeast FL Statewide |
Iso. Suwannee River Valley & Northeast Florida |
Locally Northeast Florida Statewide Southeast Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Today will be a transition day between the recent active weather pattern we have seen the last several days and a return towards a more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern. Gulf and West Coast areas could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms moving inland throughout the morning hours from the nearby coastal waters, then continuing to move inland. Drier air wrapping around the backside of Tropical Storm Chantal over the Carolina’s will move into the Panhandle, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances limited along the sea breeze south of the I-10 corridor late this afternoon. Southwesterly flow across the Peninsula will favor a dominating Gulf sea breeze, rather than an Atlantic, keeping the greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage across the eastern Peninsula. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop throughout the afternoon and evening hours (30-75% chance of rain). Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours. There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however, with the recent active weather pattern saturating soils and vegetation, an earlier onset for possible flooding cannot be ruled out with additional heavy downpours today.
Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Heat index values will continue to reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-105-degrees).
Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before dissipating and moving offshore with the sea breeze. A few lingering coastal showers and embedded rumbles of thunder cannot b ruled out throughout the overnight and early morning hours (15-30% chance of rain). With coastal showers continuing into the overnight hours, they will likely begin to drift onshore near or after sunrise Monday morning.
Low temperatures will continue to fall into the 70s and lower 80s.
Tropical Storm Chantal: At approximately 4:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. As of 8:00 AM EDT, Chantal is located about 15 miles northwest of Conway, South Carolina and is moving north-northwestward at 8 mph. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into an upper-level low pressure system on Monday. Elevated surf and rip current risks can be expected along the Northeast Florida coastline through the weekend.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for most Florida Panhandle, East Coast, and Southwest Florida beaches. Brief periods of locally high risk conditions will be possible along far Northeast Florida beaches this afternoon. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected along statewide beaches. A locally higher breaker of 4’ cannot be ruled out along the Northeast Florida coastline.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/27).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Slightly drier conditions can be expected along the Panhandle as drier air moves southward; however, isolated to scattered showers may be possible along the sea breeze collision this afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture will help scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the state throughout the daytime hours. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds, courtesy of a very moist tropical airmass. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent and erratic winds, which could spread new or ongoing wildfires over areas that have missed out on the recent heavier rainfall; however, saturated soils/vegetation will largely limit the wildfire threat statewide. Instances of locally patchy fog possible be possible early in the morning. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 14 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 467 acres.
Drought: The active and unsettled weather pattern across Florida continued through the week; however, it is important to note that rainfall that has occurred since Tuesday (7/1) is not included in this Drought Monitor update (7/3). Some improvements were noted to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness occurred across the Florida Peninsula, though areas of severe drought (level 2 of 4) and extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persisted in some localized pockets where significant long-term deficits in rainfall and streamflow consisted. Widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm activity this week will work to reduce and improve drought conditions statewide on the subsequent Drought Monitor.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 144 (-3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). Zero Florida counties have an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. The typical summertime thunderstorm pattern will set up across the state throughout the afternoon and evening hours, bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy and intense downpours that could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water, especially over areas that have already seen repeated rounds of rainfall over the last week. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Multiple rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely result in water level rises along West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, streams, and waterways. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park could rise near or into Action Stage (bank-full). For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.39 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.09 feet below normal for this time of year.
