RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for November 20th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Yesterday's frontal system has made its way to the Peninsula bringing isolated to scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, along the western Peninsula.
- The system's associated cold front will continue to push past the I-4 corridor and southward through the rest of the Peninsula bringing showers inland and embedded thunderstorms near the West Coast throughout the day (35-60% chance of rain).
- Lingering showers will be possible from the I-75 corridor and Northeast Florida while the greatest chance for rain remains to the south.
- Mostly dry conditions can be expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend as a second cold front moves in from the northwest helping to reinforce dry and cool conditions.
- Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will develop across the state throughout the day, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph along the coastal Panhandle this afternoon.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s across North Florida and upper 70s to low 80s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
- Rain chances will gradually decline from northwest to southeast throughout the evening and overnight hours as the frontal system moves offshore and away from the Florida coastline, with lingering showers possible along portions of Treasure Coast through the Florida Keys (15-35% chance of rain).
- The coolest temperatures of the season will arrive tonight and over the next couple of days. Low temperatures will fall into the 40s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and 60s to low 70s across South Florida and the Keys overnight.
- Breezy wind gusts continuing overnight will make conditions feel cooler than they are late overnight and near sunrise Thursday morning across the I-10 corridor, and feels-like temperatures will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s near sunrise Thursday morning.
- Large ocean swells of 3-5' and breezy onshore winds will create a high risk for rip currents along all Florida West and Gulf Coast beaches throughout the day. Numerous East Coast beaches can expect a moderate to high risk for rip currents.
- Onshore winds along much of the Panhandle and West Coast will lead to instances of minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Advisories and Coastal Flood Statements extend from the Panhandle through West-Central Florida.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect along the Florida Keys due to instances of minor coastal and saltwater flooding.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continue along the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River as water levels continue to very slowly decline.
- The Withlacoochee River at Dunnellon is forecast to fall below flood stage later today or early Thursday morning.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, November 19th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An upper-level disturbance moving across the Midwest U.S. will allow for scattered to widespread showers, with embedded thunderstorms, to develop along a frontal system along the Gulf Coast states (75-near 100% chance of rain).
- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually move eastward throughout the day across the I-10 corridor along and ahead of an approaching cold front.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the western Panhandle as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), an isolated tornado or two and heavy downpours.
- Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected outside of thunderstorm activity, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph near the coastline and coastal waters.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the western Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending thought the Apalachicola River as widespread rainfall may allow for instances of localized flooding.
- Mostly dry conditions can be expected across the Peninsula as high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to create dry conditions and breezy wind gusts of 10-20 mph.
- The frontal system will continue to move eastward along the Panhandle and towards the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida region overnight, allowing for shower and thunderstorm activity to spread eastward through Central Florida (45-80% chance of rain).
- Gusty onshore winds and elevated surf of 4-7' will create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected throughout all Peninsula beaches.
- Elevated water levels and onshore winds ahead of the approaching cold front will give way to instances of minor coastal flooding along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline, and Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued.
- Lingering elevated tides from the King Tides will continue to create instances of minor coastal flooding within the tidal portions of the St. Johns River and the Florida Keys.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River; however, the Withlacoochee River near Dunnellon is forecast to fall below flood stage within the next day.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, November 18th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure across the Southeast U.S. will gradually shift eastward towards the Southwest Atlantic waters but continue to bring mostly dry conditions across the state throughout the day.
- Increasing moisture across the Panhandle may allow for isolated brief showers to develop during the afternoon and evening (5-15% chance of rain).
- Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop by the afternoon across the western Panhandle and South Florida, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 20 mph near the coasts.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon statewide.
- A frontal system moving over the Central and Midwest U.S. states will bring a strong cold front eastward towards the Panhandle overnight.
- The remnants of Sara and tropical moisture will be pulled northward ahead of the front allowing for isolated to scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms to develop late overnight or during the predawn hours on Tuesday (45-60% chance of rain).
- Increasing surf of 2-5' and onshore winds along the Florida Panhandle will create a high risk for rip currents along all beaches. East Coast beaches have returned to a moderate risk for rip currents, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach County.
- Instances of minor coastal and saltwater flooding will be possible during times of high tide due to onshore winds and lingering King Tides across portions of the East Coast and Florida Keys.
- Developing ocean swells and breezy onshore winds along the far western Panhandle will also create instances of minor coastal flooding.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues along the Withlacoochee River near Holder and Dunnellon, with moderate riverine flooding ongoing for the St. Johns River at Astor.
- With the 4:00 AM EST advisory, the remnants of Sara have degenerated into an upper-level disturbance. This is the final public advisory for this system.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, November 17th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure over the Southeast U.S. will bring pleasant conditions across the state throughout the day with a chance for isolated sprinkles along portions of Space and Treasure Coast (near 0-15% chance of rain).
- Mostly light winds can be expected during the daytime hours, but stronger wind gusts of 10-15 mph will develop south of the I-4 corridor and wind gusts of 15-20 mph will develop across the Florida Keys.
- Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds today; however, locally sensitive wildfire conditions cannot be ruled across portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend due to expanding drought conditions.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s and low 80s across the state this afternoon.
- Mostly dry and calm conditions will return statewide overnight, with patchy fog possible overnight or early Monday morning throughout North Florida.
- Onshore winds and ocean swells of 4-6' will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast. A moderate risk can be expected for several Panhandle beaches.
- King Tides will linger along the Florida East Coast and through the Florida Keys creating instances of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding near and during times of high tide. Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements remain in effect.
- Elevated tides and onshore winds have nearly stalled discharge rates along the St. Johns River at Astor which remains in moderate flood stage. Water levels continue to very slowly decline within minor to moderate flood stage for the Withlacoochee River near Holder and Dunnellon.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Tropical Storm Sara: As of 7:00 AM EST, Sara is located about 60 miles south-southeast of Belize City and is moving west-northwestward at 5 mph. This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize later this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Only small fluctuations in strength are anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipate is expected over the southern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. While Sara is not expected to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, a plume of enhanced moisture/remnants of Sara are likely to be drawn northward across the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms for portions of Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for November 16th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure building in over the eastern U.S. in the wake of yesterday’s cold front will give way to a quiet and pleasant day or sunny and dry conditions across the Sunshine State today (near 0% chance of rain).
- Breezy northeasterly winds near 5-10 mph with gusts upwards of 10-15 mph along the Peninsula; Stronger winds near 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 15-20 mphalong the Keys.
- High temperatures in the low to middle 70s across North Florida, middle 70s to low 80s across Central Florida, and upper 70s to middle 80s across South Florida and the Keys.
- Moderatetohigh risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle and East Coast.
- Minor to moderate coastal floodingpersists near and at times of high tide along the St. Johns River Basin, East Coast, Southwest Coast, and Keys due to lingering King Tides.
- Minor tomoderate riverine floodingcontinues along portions of the Withlacoochee and St. Johns Rivers.
- Dry and pleasant conditions will continue through the overnight hours courtesy of high pressure (near 0% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, low to middle 60s across Central and South Florida, upper 60s to low 70s along the East Coast, and middle 70s along the Keys.
- Tropical Storm Sara remains nearly stationary along the northern Honduras Coast with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. A slow west-northwestward motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Sunday and Sunday night. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. While Sara is not expected to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, a plume of enhanced moisture/remnants of Sara are likely to be drawn northward across the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms for portions of Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
