Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologySaturday, June 29, 2024
...Building High Pressure and Lingering Abundant Moisture To Give Way to Another Day Of Scattered to Numerous Sea Breeze Showers and Thunderstorms Statewide...A Few Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Producing Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours Possible...Heavy Downpours and Slow-Moving or Training Showers and Thunderstorms May Lead to Localized Flooding Over Urban and Low-Lying/Poor Drainage Areas...Heat Indices In the Upper 90s and Triple Digits (100-110) Statewide...Heat Advisories In Effect Across South Florida...Additional Heat Advisories Possible Near Lake Okeechobee and Across North Florida This Afternoon...Moderate Risk For Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast...Tropical Storm Beryl Is Expected to Become a Hurricane Tonight Or Sunday As It Continues To Move Westward or West-Northwestward Towards the Windward Islands; No Direct Threat Over Next 5-7 Days But Will Continue To Monitor...Invest 94L In The Northwestern Caribbean And A Tropical Wave In The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Have A Medium (40%, 60%) Chance of Development Through 7 Days...
Updated at 9:15 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Hail | Flash Flooding | Excessive Heat | Wildfire | Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide SE Coast & Keys |
|
Locally Iso. Statewide |
|
Locally Iso. Statewide |
South FL & Locally North FL Statewide |
|
Locally Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Localized areas of patchy fog and low clouds will linger into the early-to-mid morning hours across portions of North and Central Florida this morning before dissipating. High pressure building in and anonymously high moisture remaining in place will give way to another day of sea breeze showers and thunderstorms across the state (50-85% chance of rain). Sufficient daytime heating will follow the dissipating of fog and low clouds and give way to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the coastlines statewide this afternoon, moving inland with the sea breezes throughout the day. Lighter winds will allow the East Coast sea breeze to move further inland this afternoon, allowing activity to favor more inland areas as the Gulf and Atlantic Coast sea breezes collide over the interior Peninsula. While severe weather is not expected, a few strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours will be possible during the peak heating hours of the day. Abundant moisture giving way to heavy downpours and slow-moving or training showers and storms may result in instances of localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s with heat indices, or feels like temperatures, rising into the triple digits (100-110) nearly statewide. Portions of the Eastern Peninsula will likely see slightly lower heat indices (97-104) as the sea breeze works to keep conditions cooler. Heat Advisories are in effect across South Florida through this afternoon as heat indices are expected to reach up to 110-degrees. These advisories may be expanded further northward towards Lake Okeechobee this afternoon should the sea breezes develop later than expected. Despite no organized risk elsewhere, Heat Advisories may be issued later this morning for portions of North Florida as localized areas will likely reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (up to 113-degrees). Remember to take frequent breaks from outdoor activities, wear light clothing, and drink plenty of water.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally continue through the evening hours and early overnight hours before dissipating by or just after midnight as they follow the sea breeze back towards the coast (15-40% chance of rain). Weak onshore flow may allow for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm along the coast overnight. Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s nearly statewide with low to middle 80s along the Southeast Coast and Keys. Localized areas of patchy fog and low clouds may be possible across portions of the state overnight and early Sunday morning.
Rip Currents: Numerous beaches along the Panhandle and East Coast will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents, with a locally high risk along Bay County. A low risk for rip currents can be expected for all other beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights near 1-3’ can be expected for beaches statewide.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week (as of 6/28).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Tropical Storm Beryl: As of 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located about 890 east-southeast of Barbados and moving westward at 21 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Sunday. Beryl poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days but will continue to be monitored.
Invest 94L - Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: Abundant moisture will hold steady across the state helping to keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds throughout the day. High pressure building in over the state and anonymously high moisture remaining in place will give way to another day of scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms across the state. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Southerly to easterly winds will remain light throughout the day (5-10 mph), keeping wind gusts near 10-15 mph at times with 15-20 mph possible along immediate coastlines and the Keys. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 33 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,398 acres.
Drought: Throughout most of the southeast, rainfall has been largely lacking over the past 3-4 weeks. At the same time, the region has experienced several heat waves over the past month. Combined, this has resulted in rapidly deteriorating drought conditions. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded into the Big Bend and north of I-10 into the Eastern Panhandle on this week’s drought monitor update as soil moisture, stream flows, and several derived drought indices continue to worsen on a daily basis. Moderate drought conditions have also expanded on this week’s update and now stretch across the Northern Peninsula and into the Eastern Big Bend. High rates of evaporation of moisture from land and vegetation (evapotranspiration) are rapidly drying out soils and vegetation, increasing fire concerns. Widespread impacts have been observed in the agriculture sector due to these worsening drought conditions as pastures and rangelands are going dormant or turning brown, which is in turn increasing livestock concerns. There have been several reports that crop yields are in danger if meaningful rainfall is not observed soon. Abnormally Dry conditions remain near and north of Lake Okeechobee to north of I-4 with pockets of moderate drought near Melbourne and south of Orlando. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall are expected to persist over the next week and will likely further exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 381 (-7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 26 Florida Counties (Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Marion, Nassau, Putnam, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, and Wakulla) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: High pressure building in over the state and anonymously high moisture remaining in place will give way to another day of scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms across the state. Lighter south-southeasterly winds across the Peninsula will allow the East Coast sea breeze to move further inland, allowing activity to favor more inland areas. Multiple rounds of rainfall, with heavy downpours possible, could bring localized flooding and ponding of water statewide throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Any slow-moving or training showers and thunderstorms over the same areas, or over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas, could lead to instances of localized flooding at times. Nuisance to localized flash flooding will be possible. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Water levels along Bruce Creek near Redbay have risen into Action Stage (bank-full) following heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida Panhandle this week. All other Florida rivers, creeks, and waterways are below flood stage. Additional water level rises are possible along Florida rivers, creeks, and waterways with additional rounds of rainfall across the state. Riverine flooding is not expected at this time. There are no additional riverine concerns. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.42 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.06 feet above normal for this time of year.
