Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, November 4, 2024
...High Pressure Continues to Dominate Statewide Keeping Conditions Mostly Dry Across North and West Florida...Isolated Showers to Drift Onshore Along East Coast Then Quickly Move Westward Throughout the Day; Activity to Remain Light and Brief...Breezy Wind Gusts to Continue Nearly Statewide, Especially Across Central and South Florida...Above Normal Temperatures Statewide this Afternoon...Plume of Moisture Moving Westward from Bahamas Toward Southeast Florida and Keys to Bring Isolated to Scattered Showers With Possible Thunderstorms Late Overnight or Early Tuesday Morning...High Risk for Rip Currents Along All Panhandle and East Coast Beaches Due to Dangerous Surf and Onshore Winds...Minor to Moderate Riverine Flooding Continues for Withlacoochee and St. Johns...NHC Continues to Monitor Two (2) Named/Numbered Systems and One (1) Potential Disturbance in the Atlantic Basin...
Updated at 10:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Flash Flooding | River Flooding | Fog (Overnight) | Fire Weather | Rip Currents |
|
Locally Iso. Southeast Florida & Keys (Overnight) |
|
Withlacoochee & St. Johns River |
Iso. Northern I-75 Corridor & Suwannee Valley |
Locally Iso. FL Panhandle |
East Coast & FL Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continues to persist and extend southward across the state bringing mostly dry conditions. Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will remain possible along the Panhandle and Big Bend due to ongoing dry conditions. Breezy onshore winds along the Florida East Coast will continue to bring isolated showers onshore along the eastern Peninsula, and these shower will continue to quickly progress westward throughout the day (15-30% chance of rain). Drier conditions in the upper-levels will limit thunderstorm activity and keep showers relatively light and brief. Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop statewide by this afternoon, with stronger winds of 15-20 mph south of Lake Okeechobee through the Florida Keys. Wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop across North Florida by the early afternoon, with stronger wind gusts of 15-25 mph across Central and South Florida, possibly upwards of 30 mph along the coastal Southeast Florida waters.
High temperatures will continue to trend above normal for this time of year reaching the 80s statewide. Please remember heat safety when working out in the field by taking breaks from direct sunlight and drink plenty of water.
Mostly dry conditions can be expected to return overnight as showers dissipate throughout most of the state; however, there is a chance for isolated showers to drift onshore along the coast. Late overnight or early Tuesday morning, isolated to scattered showers, with possible embedded thunderstorms, will shift towards the Southeast Florida coast and Florida Keys with a plume of moisture from the Bahamas (20-40% chance of rain). Areas of patchy fog may development overnight or early Tuesday morning across the northern I-75 corridor and the Suwannee Valley, if winds are able to remain light and cloud cover dissipates.
Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, low to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to low 80s across South Florida.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents is expected along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches due to easterly winds and developing ocean swells. A low risk for rip currents continues for the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Hazardous beach and boating conditions have expanded along most of the Florida East Coast and Atlantic-facing Key beaches due to onshore winds creating ocean swells of 5-8’. High Surf Advisories extend along the Space and Treasure Coasts as dangerously large breaking waves of 5-10’ are expected in the surf zone through Wednesday morning creating dangerous beach and boating conditions. Panhandle beaches can expect increasing surf of 2-5’ to develop by the evening, while the rest of the West Coast will continue to see wave heights of 1-3’.
Red Tide has been observed in 76 samples collected from Florida’s Gulf Coast over the past week (as of 11/1). Background to medium concentrations were observed in and offshore of Pinellas County with very low to low concentrations in and offshore of Manatee County, background to high concentrations in and offshore of Sarasota County, background to high concentrations in and offshore of Charlotte County, very low to medium concentrations in and offshore of Lee County, and background to medium concentrations offshore of Collier County, and background concentrations offshore of Monroe County. Fish kills and respiratory irritation suspected to be related to red tide were reported in Pinellas, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee Counties. Background concentrations of Red Tide were also observed in Franklin County.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen: As of 7:00 AM EST, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is located about 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and moving northward at 7 mph. A northwestward motion is expected later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, by near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, an increase in rain chances, surf and breezy conditions can be expected to develop across the Keys and extend northward along the West Coast by mid to late week regardless of development of this system.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…near 100%.
Subtropical Storm Patty: As of 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Storm Patty is located about 490 miles east of the Azores and moving east-northeastward at 20 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Patty poses no threat to Florida.
Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
*Formation chance through 7 days… low…20%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will persist across the state reaching 10-15 mph across North and Central Florida and 15-20 mph south of Lake Okeechobee through the Florida Keys. Wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop across North Florida by the late afternoon, with stronger wind gusts of 15-25 mph possible across Central and South Florida, including the Florida Keys. Relative humidity values across the state will remain above critical thresholds (lowest values of 45-50% across Big Bend) this afternoon; however, ongoing dry conditions and breezy winds will create locally sensitive wildfire conditions across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight or early Tuesday morning across the northern I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 26 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 118 acres.
Drought: Warm and dry conditions have persisted along the Florida Panhandle over the last week or so, causing soil moisture through the region to deteriorate rather quickly. Rainfall deficits over the last 30-days have reached 2-4” across the region. Because of this, moderate drought conditions have emerged north of the I-10 corridor in the Western Panhandle of Florida on this week’s Drought Monitor update (10/31) with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions now covering the rest of the Florida Panhandle towards the I-75 corridor. Above normal rainfall outlooked across Florida over the next week or so may help to improve or slow the developing drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 298 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are three Florida Counties (Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected today. Rainfall totals are forecast to remain below an inch across the state.
Riverine Flooding: Minor to moderate riverine flooding is ongoing for portions of the Withlacoochee River (in West-Central Florida) and the St. Johns River in response to Hurricane Milton. Moderate flooding is ongoing along the and the Withlacoochee River (at US-301 Trilby and near Holder at SR-200) and St. Johns River at Astor. Water levels along upper portions of the Withlacoochee River have crested and are seeing water levels gradually fall and lower portions of the river have crested and are holding near steady. The St. Johns River will see water levels continue to slowly fall as weaker as trapped tides within the tidal portions of the river continue to discharge. Minor Flooding continues along the Withlacoochee River (at Croom and at US-41 Dunnellon), St. Johns River (near Deland, near Sanford, and above Lake Harney). For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 16.10 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.08 feet above normal for this time of year.
