Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents persists along the Florida Panhandle today with a moderate risk along the West-Central Coast. A low risk persists along all other beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: 1-2’ wave heights can continue to be expected along the East Coast and Keys this afternoon. Breezy winds developing with the next system will build swells in the Gulf of Mexico, creating wave heights of 1-4’ along the West Coast and Florida Panhandle.

Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today; however, elevated tides (0.5-0.75’ above normal) may be possible along the Forgotten and Nature Coasts at times as breezy winds persist.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic Basin.

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks for the 2024 hurricane season as of May 15. These outlooks show areas of possible tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and next 7 days. Outlooks are issued every 6 hours at 8am, 2pm, 8pm, and 2am eastern time, or as conditions warrant. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officials begins June 1.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Fire Weather: One more potential round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible this morning and afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing and tracking eastward through the Panhandle. Additional storms should form along the Florida Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon with an isolated severe threat possible. Erratic, gusty winds and lightning within thunderstorms may be capable of spreading existing fires or igniting new fires. Wind gusts near 20-30 mph can be expected along the Florida Panhandle at times outside of thunderstorms with 10-20 mph gusts elsewhere. Returning moisture will generally keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds with drier pockets near critical thresholds (40-45%) along portions of the interior Peninsula this afternoon. Sensitive wildfire conditions will be possible over areas that continue to see short-term rainfall deficits and ongoing drought conditions in the Peninsula this afternoon. Heat Advisories have been issued for South Florida, the Keys, and the Central-East Coast this afternoon as heat indices reach triple digits (106-110) today. Heat indices will approach or reach triple digits (97-105) elsewhere across the Peninsula. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible overnight and early Sunday morning. Fog may further reduce visibilities in areas with ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 39 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2081 acres.

Drought: While heavy rainfall was observed across portions of the state over the past week, Central and South Florida continues to see very limited rainfall an above normal temperatures (2-4-degress above normal), leading to additional expansions in drought conditions on this week’s update as fire danger is high, and dryness continues to compound. Moderate Drought conditions now span from the West Coast to the East Coast from a line north of Fort Myers to north of West Palm Beach and northward to a line from Sarasota to Melbourne. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded further along the I-4 corridor and south of Lake Okeechobee to Fort Lauderdale. Continued above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over the next 6-10 days will likely continue to exacerbate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 310 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 13 Florida counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River, Manatee, Martin, Palm Beach, Sarasota and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending across the Big Bend and into the Northern Peninsula. Instances of flooding and ponding water will be possible through the Panhandle, especially for locations that remain saturated from heavy rainfall earlier in the week or that experience multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity. Flood Watches remain in effect along portions of the Florida Panhandle through this evening as instances as another round of heavy rainfall moves through the region today. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3” are anticipated along the Florida Panhandle with locally higher totals in excess of 3-5” possible.

Riverine Flooding: Portions of several Big Bend and Suwannee Valley rivers (including several portions of the Suwannee River) remain in Action Stage (bank-full). Numerous additional rivers and waterways across North Florida have begun to rise into Action Stage in response to heavy rainfall across the basins over the past week. River Flood Warning have been issued for the Ochlocknee River near Concord (CR-12), Escambia River near Century, Blackwater River near Baker, Shoal River near Crestview, and St. Marks River near Newport on Old Magnolia Rd as minor flooding is occurring or forecast this weekend and into next week. Additional heavy rainfall across the Florida Panhandle this morning and afternoon may lead to further water level rises and additional River Flood Warnings may be issued. There are no addition riverine flood concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.61 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.34 feet above normal for this time of year.