Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyWednesday, May 8, 2024
...Reduced Visibility Along I-10 Corridor and Suwannee Valley this Morning Due to Dense Fog and Low Clouds...High Pressure Dominating Statewide and Bringing Warm and Dry Conditions...Limited Chance for Shower and Possible Thunderstorm Activity This Afternoon and Evening Along Sea Breeze Boundaries...Near Triple Digit Heat Index Values or Feels-Like Temperatures West of I-95 Corridor and Interior Central Florida...Pathcy Fog Possible Early Thursday Morning Along Northern I-75 Corridor and Suwannee Valley...Onshore Winds Continue to Create High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle; Moderate Risk for East Coast Beaches With Locally High Risk Along Palm Beach County...Minor River Flooding Continues for Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates...
Updated at 8:49 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Damaging Wind/Hail | Tornado | Excessive Heat | Fog (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Locally Interior Central & South Florida Iso. Peninsula |
|
Interior Northeast & Central Florida Iso. Statewide |
Northern I-75 Corridor and Suwannee Valley |
Locally West-Central & Interior Peninsula |
Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates |
Panhandle & Palm Beach County East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Reduced visibility can be expected this morning along the I-10 corridor and Suwannee Valley as dense fog and low clouds have developed this morning. Foggy conditions will gradually lift and clear out by the mid-morning hours as the sun continues to rise. High pressure will dominate across the Sunshine State bringing warm and dry conditions throughout the day. High temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state, with interior portions of Central Florida approaching the upper 90s. By the early to mid-afternoon hours, heat index values or feels-like temperatures will reach the middle 90s nearly statewide, with portions of the northeast and central Peninsula reaching the upper 90s and near triple digits. There is a limited chance later this afternoon and evening for isolated showers and possible rumbles of thunder along the sea breeze boundaries throughout the interior Peninsula (10-20% chance of rain). Confidence about rain chances, especially thunderstorm development are low due to dry air building over the state; however, it cannot be ruled out. The sea breeze developing throughout the day will help to keep areas along the immediate coastline a few degrees cooler compared to inland areas.
Any shower or possible thunderstorm that develops later this evening will linger into the early overnight hours before dissipating and moving towards the adjacent coastal waters (10-15% chance of rain). Patchy fog may develop late overnight and early Thursday morning along the Suwannee Valley and northern I-75 corridor with the help of light winds and clear skies. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s overnight throughout the state. Low temperatures across the Florida Keys will only fall into the upper 70s and near-80 degrees, giving little relief from daytime high temperatures.
Rip Currents: Southerly winds will create onshore winds along the Panhandle will create a high risk for rip currents. East Coast beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents, with a high risk along Palm Beach County beaches. A low risk for rip currents continues along West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards:Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected for all beaches statewide. Isolated breaking waves along Atlantic-facing Key beaches will reach upwards of 4’ within the surf zone.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Foggy conditions and low clouds this morning extend along the I-10 corridor and into the Suwannee Valley. Warm and dry conditions will develop statewide as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Near critical relative humidity values can be expected late this afternoon and into the evening will develop along the interior Peninsula, mostly along Central and South Florida (middle to upper 30%). Winds will remain below Red Flag conditions across the Peninsula, and wind gusts will remain below 15 mph. Isolated breezy wind gusts along the sea breeze may develop at times. Above normal temperatures developing, combined with ongoing dry conditions will create sensitive wildfire conditions across central and southern portions of the Peninsula, especially where short-term drought conditions have emerged. There is potential for patchy fog early Thursday morning along the Suwannee Valley, but confidence is low. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 49 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1199 acres.
Drought: High pressure has continued to yield relatively dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures statewide over the last week, leading to high evaporative demand and locally decreasing streamflow. Several recent brush fires have been noted and there has been an increased concern for more as short-term dryness and drought continue. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along further northward and southward across Central and Southern portions of the Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the from the I-4 and south to the I-75 and from the West to the East Coast. Moderate Drought conditions have been introduced to eastern portions of the region from Brevard County to Palm Beach County and surrounding Lake Okeechobee as rainfall deficits continue to increase. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall expected across the region over the next week will likely exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 370 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are five Florida counties (Brevard, Highlands, Indian River, Sarasota and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across the Peninsula sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and evening and warm and dry conditions develop. Isolated showers and possible rumbles of thunder may develop along the sea breeze collision later in the day, mainly along the eastern I-4 corridor and interior central and south Peninsula areas. Rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.5”.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect along the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue through the end of this week. Portions of several Big Bend and Suwannee Valley rivers (including several portions of the Suwannee River) remain in Action Stage (bank-full); however, water levels are continuing to fall. There are no additions riverine flood concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.97 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.51 feet above normal for this time of year.
