Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
...High Pressure Over New England to Dominate Statewide...Onshore Winds To Bring Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers Onshore Along Florida East Coast; Isolated Thunderstorms Possible During Afternoon and Evening...Seasonable to Above Normal Temperatures This Afternoon...Breezy Winds Persist Across Peninsula Throughout Afternoon and Evening...Patchy Fog Possible Tonight or Early Wednesday Along Suwannee Valley...High Risk for Rip Currents Persist Along East Coast; Moderate Risk for Numerous Panhandle Beaches...Moderate to Major Riverine Flooding Along Withlacoochee; Minor to Moderate Flooding Along St. Johns...NHC Continues to Monitor Potential Disturbance (40%) Development Over Southwestern Caribbean Sea Over Next 7 Days...
Updated at 9:53 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Flash Flooding | River Flooding | Coastal Flooding | Fire Weather | Rip Currents |
Northeast & East-Central Florida Coasts |
|
Withlacoochee River St. Johns River Cypress Creek & Peace River |
Upper St. Johns (Tidal - Putnam County) |
Iso. FL Panhandle |
East Coast & Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure over New England will continue to dominate across the state bringing mostly dry conditions for the Panhandle and West Florida. While relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds across the Panhandle and western Big Bend, locally sensitive wildfire conditions will remain possible due to ongoing dry conditions and lack of rainfall over the last several days. Breezy onshore winds and an upper-level feature will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers to develop and push onshore along the Florida East Coast throughout the day, with isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening (25-35% chance of rain). There is a chance for some of these showers to push further westward and inland compared to the last several days with this pattern. Isolated showers may reach as far Northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph will develop again throughout the day across the Peninsula, with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph by the late afternoon and evening. Those stronger winds and wind gusts will develop along the immediate coastline or adjacent coastal waters.
Temperatures will continue to trend seasonable to above normal for this time of year as high temperatures will reach the low to middle 80s, with the western Peninsula approaching the upper 80s. Please continue to practice heat safety when working out in the field during recovery efforts. Remember to take breaks from direct sunlight and drink plenty of water.
Any showers and thunderstorm activity that develops by the evening hours should gradually weaken and wane heading into the overnight hours. Isolated showers will remain possible along the immediate East Coast and adjacent coastal waters throughout the overnight hours, but activity will remain light and brief (15-20% chance of rain). Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight or early Wednesday morning across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.
Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, low to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s across South Florida.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents is expected along the Florida East Coast today as breezy onshore winds persist and ocean swells develop. A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along all Panhandle beaches due to building surf. West Coast beaches can still expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Persistent onshore winds will allow for seas to build along the East Coast and wave heights will reach 4-7’ for the entire coastline and locally higher wave of 7-9’ further offshore for Atlantic-facing Key beaches. A High Surf Advisory has been issued along portions of the Treasure Coast as large breaking waves of 6-10’ are expected within the surf zone through Thursday afternoon. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will also see increasing surf of 2-4’ develop throughout the day.
Red Tide has been observed in 49 samples collected from Southwest Florida over the past week (as of 10/25). Background to high concentrations were observed in and offshore of Pinellas County with background to low concentrations in and offshore of Hillsborough County, background to medium concentrations in and offshore of Manatee and Sarasota Counties, and very low concentrations in Lee County. Fish kills suspected to be related to red tide were reported offshore of Pinellas County.
Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is possible near and during times of high tide along the upper tidal portions of the St. Johns River (Putnam County) due to persistent onshore winds and increasing surf. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through early Thursday morning.
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days at least but will continue to be closely monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: Moderate to major riverine flooding continues along portions of the Withlacoochee River (in West-Central Florida) and St. Johns River in response to Hurricane Milton with several other Northeast, Central, and Southwest Florida rivers and waterways still seeing minor flooding. Major riverine flooding is ongoing for the Withlacoochee River (at Croom and at US-301 Trilby); however, both rivers have crested and are seeing water levels gradually fall. Moderate flooding is ongoing along the Withlacoochee River near Holder at SR-200 and the St. Johns River (at Astor, near Deland, and above Lake Harney). The lower portions of the Withlacoochee River continue to see water levels gradually increase as crest waves from further upstream continue to flow through the basin. Weaker onshore winds and dissipating ocean swells have allowed trapped tides in the St. Johns River basin to begin gradually discharging and water levels are expected to hold steady or continue slowly falling through the weekend, at least. Minor Flooding continues along the Withlacoochee River at US-41 Dunnellon, St. Johns River near Sanford, Cypress Creek at SR-54, and Peace River at SR-60 Bartow. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 16.12 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.06 feet above normal for this time of year.