Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyThursday, March 28, 2024
...Cold Front Moving Southeastward Through the Peninsula to Maintain Scattered Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Through This Afternoon...Relatively Dry and Pleasant Conditions Return This Evening and Overnight As High Pressure Builds In Behind the Cold Front...Breezy Post-Frontal Winds Expected Statewide With Gusts Upwards of 25-30 MPH in South and Central Florida and Near 20-25 MPH Elsewhere...Sensitive to Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Anticipated Along the Florida Panhandle This Afternoon...Moderate to High Risk For Rip Currents Persists Statewide...High Surf Advisory Remains In Effect Along Palm Beach County Through This Evening...Temepratures Near Or Just Below Normal Today and Tonight...
Updated at 9:02 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind/Hail | Flash Flooding | Wildfire | Fog (Overnight) | Riverine Flooding | Rip Currents |
Peninsula & Keys |
Locally FL Panhandle |
Iso. Big Bend & Suwannee Valley |
Statewide Central-E Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The frontal boundary that has been slowly drifting eastward remains stationed along the I-4 corridor this morning and continues to produce scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms along the Northern Peninsula (65-90% chance of rain). The cold front has regained a quicker southeastward forward motion and will make its way off the coast of the Southern Peninsula by this afternoon (35-55% chance of rain), allowing mostly sunny skies to return statewide this evening. High temperatures will generally remain in the low to middle 70s across North Florida, upper 70s to low 80s through Central Florida, and low to middle 80s along South Florida and the Keys this afternoon.
Behind the cold front, dry air and northwesterly to northerly winds are expected as high pressure begins to build in for the weekend and into early next week. Wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph can be expected across South and Central Florida, including the Keys, with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere. Sensitive wildfire conditions will develop along the Panhandle and Western Big Bend this afternoon thanks to high dispersions, breezy winds, and near to below critical relative humidity values (20-40%) behind the cold front. While elevated fuel moisture from recent heavy rainfall will help to limit the overall wildfire threat, pockets of elevated fire weather conditions may be possible locally in areas that continue to experience dry conditions
Near zero rain chances and clear to mostly clear skies will return statewide overnight as the center of high pressure expands eastward over the state. Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 40s across the Florida Panhandle and Suwannee Valley, low 50s across the rest of the Northern Peninsula, middle to upper 50s through Central Florida, upper 50s to low 60s through South Florida, and middle to upper 60s along the Keys.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for nearly all beaches statewide due to breezy winds and large ocean swells. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: The long-period ocean swell over the western Atlantic waters will weaken throughout the day but continue to create wave heights of 3-6’ along East Coast beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect along coastal Palm Beach County through this evening as large breaking waves of 3-7’ continue to be possible. Elevated surf along the Florida Panhandle will begin to dissipate today as wave heights return to 2-5’ this afternoon. West Coast beaches can anticipate wave heights to increase to 4-7’ by this afternoon as swells in the Gulf of Mexico shift southeastward with the cold front. Red Tide has been observed at background levels in two samples collected in Southwest Florida, from and offshore of Sarasota County, over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: Onshore winds and elevated surf along portions of the western Florida Panhandle, as well as Treasure Coast, may allow for isolated instances of minor coastal and beach erosion at times of high tide.
Fire Weather: A frontal remains stationed across Central Florida this morning and continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will continue moving southeastward through the Peninsula and off the coast of the Southern Peninsula by this afternoon. Behind the cold front, dry air and northerly winds are expected as high pressure begins to build in for the weekend and into early next week. Wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are anticipated across South and Central Florida, including the Keys, with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere at times. Sensitive wildfire conditions will develop along the Panhandle and Western Big Bend this afternoon thanks to high dispersions, breezy winds, and near to below critical relative humidity values (20-40%) behind the cold front. While elevated fuel moisture from recent heavy rainfall will help to limit the overall wildfire threat, pockets of elevated fire weather conditions may be possible locally in areas that continue to see 30-day rainfall deficits near 1-2”. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds elsewhere with locally drier pockets possible in Central Florida (35-45%). According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 19 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 292 acres.
Drought: Conditions remain unchanged on this week’s Drought Monitor update. A widespread 1-3” of rain was observed along the Florida Panhandle over the past week with a widespread 2-5” along the southern Peninsula and the Keys and locally higher totals across both regions. The rest of the state only received a widespread rainfall totals of near or below 1”. Long-term rainfall deficits continue to promote Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions along West-Central Florida. Limited rainfall expected across the state over the next week may exacerbate existing dry conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 119 (-1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist along the slow-moving frontal boundary in the Northern Peninsula this morning, breaking apart and becoming increasingly isolated as the cold front moves through the rest of the Peninsula this afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals are forecast to remain well below 1” this afternoon with clear to mostly clear skies returning late his afternoon through the overnight hours.
Riverine Flooding: All Florida rivers, creeks and waterways are currently below flood stage. Local rises in water levels will be possible throughout the day across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley with many rivers and waterways forecast to rise into Action Stage (bank-full) in response to heavy rainfall received over the last few days. The Ochlockonee River near Concord and portions of the Santa Fe River Basin (O’Leno State Park & Three Rivers Estates) are forecast to rise into minor flood stage late this weekend or early next week as water levels continue to rise. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.38 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.04 feet above normal for this time of year.