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10/31/2024 7:46:42 PM

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


873
AXNT20 KNHC 312346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front enters the region near 31N35W and extends
southwestward to near 21N44W, then becomes stationary continuing
on to the Lesser Antilles to near 16N61.5W. High pressure of 1027
mb is located N of Bermuda and extends a broad ridge south and
southeastward behind the front, and dominates the waters W of the
front, including Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.
The strong pressure gradient associated with this system supports
fresh to strong NE winds and high seas across most of the waters
W of 55W. Seas will continue to build on Friday, with a large area
of 12-15 ft seas occurring from 55W to the Bahamas between 20N
and 26N starting early Friday and lasting through the weekend.
Seas will gradually lower early next week. In addition, heavy
rainfall will be possible through the weekend from the Virgin
Islands westward across the north and northeast portions of the
Greater Antilles to eastern Cuba, as the front meanders across
the region. This may lead to flash flooding and potential
landslides across these islands through the weekend. Please see
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
weather bulletins issued by your local weather agency for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5
kt or less. This wave has been interacting with a middle level
trough extending southwestward into this area for the past 24
hours and has significant interrupted the westward motion of the
wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
14N to 19N between 49W and 57W.

A second tropical wave is analyzed over the central Caribbean along
77W-78W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave from 13N to
16.5N between 72W and 75W. Other convection across the W Caribbean
is associated with the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough and a
Central American Gyre (CAG) event that is expected to develop over
the next several days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through a 1008 mb low
pressure center near 14.5N16W and continues southwestward to
06N28W and then westward to 06N31W. The ITCZ then continues from
06N31W to 02.5N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring across a large area from 02N to 11N between 17W and
36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high pressure center located N of Bermuda extends a
ridge southwestward across the SE U.S., north Florida, and into
the north central Gulf. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly winds over the eastern half of the basin,
and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf,
except in the Bay of Campeche where mainly gentle NE to E winds
prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are found across the eastern Gulf,
except to 9 ft within the Gulfstream. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the western half of the basin, with the exception of 2 to
4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Texas and southwest Louisiana coastal waters, along and
just ahead of an approaching cold front.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient associated with
strong high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to support
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf
region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected in the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, through Fri night, then mostly in the Straits of Florida
through the upcoming weekend. A broad area of low pressure is
likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the
next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E to
NE winds across roughly the northern half of the basin, including
the Windward and Mona Passages as well as the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh E winds are analyzed across much of the
remaining central and western Caribbean, while the eastern
Caribbean is seeing gentle to moderate E winds. Seas are 5 to 7
ft across much of the northern Caribbean, except 8 to 9 ft in the
Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, while seas of 2 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the
western Caribbean from coastal Yucatan to northern Colombia.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted over
the northeastern Caribbean, north of 14N and east of 68W, and
extends northeastward across the adjacent islands and into the
Atlantic, supported by an upper level low center moving
southeastward across Hispaniola. Abundant tropical moisture and
favorable atmospheric conditions will persist across these two areas
over the next several days, supporting periods of heavy rainfall
and localized flooding across portions of Central America and the
Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to
develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or
two. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while
the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the
central or western Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, a strong high
pressure ridge N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, into the
upcoming weekend. Large N to NE long period swell entering the NE
Caribbean passages today will continue before subsiding late on
Sat. Active weather will impact the majority of the basin into the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details
regarding building seas behind a front extending across the
central Atlantic. Morning satellite scatterometer winds showed
most of the area W of 55W with fresh to strong NE winds, and seas
of 8 to 14 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection continues across the NE Caribbean and extends northward
to 22.5N across the Atlantic and between 57W and 70W. This
convective activity is ahead of an upper-level trough crossing
Hispaniola. Abundant tropical moisture in place and the presence
of the upper-level trough will result in the risk of heavy
precipitation and severe weather across this area for the next
several days.

Ahead of the cold front, morning satellite scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong S winds ahead of the front, generally
north of 23N and west of 30W. Farther E of the front, a 1019 mb
high pressure situated W of the Canary Islands near 29N21W is in
control of the weather pattern across the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic
flow and moderate seas are observed under the influence of this
system. A weak 1011 mb low pressure area and attendant surface
trough is near 14N43W is producing some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, a very tight pressure gradient
occurring between high pressure centered N of Bermuda and a
lingering frontal zone across the north and northeast Caribbean
controls the wind regime W of 55W. This pattern will continue to
support strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western
Atlantic through the next few days. Peak seas of 13 to 16 ft are
expected E of the Bahamas through Sun, perhaps subsiding some
early next week. Active convection currently is S of about 24N
and E of 70W is likely to be further enhanced as a trough
develops near Puerto Rico going into the weekend, and it moves
west-northwestward across portions of near the Greater Antilles.
The present ongoing strong to near gale-force E winds over these
same waters may reach gale-force Fri night into the upcoming
weekend due to a tightening of the pressure gradient between the
trough and the high pressure to the N. Marine interests over these
waters should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine
conditions. Please monitor the latest forecasts and Tropical
Weather Outlooks.

$$
Stripling