RSS Tropical Weather Outlook
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 232351<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Thu Apr 24 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2330 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and<br />extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03S43W.<br />Strong convection is emerging off the coast of Liberia and Cote<br />d'Ivoire, north of 02N and east of 11W. Widely scattered moderate<br />convection is occurring from 03S to 04N between 15W and 35W. <br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /> <br />Ridging extends over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to<br />locally fresh SE winds over the central and western Gulf, with <br />gentle to moderate SE winds in the eastern basin. Locally fresh E<br />to NE winds are noted offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, just to<br />the north of a trough axis extending through the peninsula. Seas<br />of 4 to 6 ft prevail west of 90W, with 2 to 5 ft seas to the <br />east, including through the Florida Straits. <br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure ridging just NE of the Gulf will <br />bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine <br />conditions to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The <br />southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh E to <br />SE winds during this same period, locally pulsing to strong off <br />the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri night as a diurnal<br />trough affects the waters. Scattered showers and isolated <br />thunderstorms over the NW Gulf should weaken and diminish this <br />evening.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />Locally fresh NE winds are occurring through the Windward Passage,<br />as well as offshore of northwestern Colombia, as the result of a<br />pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a 1010 mb<br />low over northwestern Colombia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the<br />south-central Caribbean in association with these winds. Two <br />troughs are noted in the eastern Caribbean; the first extends from<br />30N58W southwestward through the Leeward Islands, and the second <br />that extends from 18N58W through the Windward Islands. Mainly <br />gentle to moderate winds are noted surrounding these features east<br />of 70W, and associated seas range from 2 to 3 ft. Elsewhere, <br />gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail <br />across the rest of the basin. <br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the basin will <br />support pulsing fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of <br />Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night for the next couple of <br />nights. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will <br />prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Scattered showers are <br />possible over the eastern Caribbean during the next couple of days<br />to the east of a trough over the NE basin. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A surface trough extends from 30N58W southwestward through the<br />Leeward Islands, while ridging extends from a 1028 mb high <br />centered north of the area. The pressure gradient between these <br />features is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds east <br />of 60W to 50W, with fresh to locally strong NE winds occurring <br />from 60W to 70W, generally north of 20N. Rough seas of 8 to 11 <br />prevail in this region from 23N, northward, between 50W and 70W. <br />Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring around <br />this trough. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE winds <br />continue over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of <br />Florida. Moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere west of the <br />surface trough. To the east of the surface trough, widespread <br />moderate to fresh trade winds dominate those waters with seas of 5<br />to 8 ft, with the exception of east of 20W and north of 10N where<br />fresh to strong NE winds are present. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds will continue on the<br />NW side of the aforementioned trough through Fri as the trough <br />remains nearly stationary. Winds should should diminish by the <br />weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a cold <br />front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday <br />into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.<br /><br />$$<br />ADAMS