RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 30th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Abundant moisture will continue to build ahead of frontal boundary approaching the Mid-Atlantic U.S. helping to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the sea breeze collisions (65-85% chance of rain).
- The greatest coverage for shower and thunderstorms activity will be across the Panhandle, Big Bend, I-75 corridor and South Florida throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
- While organized severe weather is not expected, strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph) and torrential downpours.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the I-10 corridor and throughout the western Peninsula, west of the I-95 corridor, where slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy and intense downpours that could bring localized flash flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Abundant moisture and high pressure will bring warm and muggy conditions across the state will create high temperatures in the low to middle 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to middle 100s.
- Heat Advisories will go into effect along the far western Panhandle later this morning where heat index values will reach 108-110, creating dangerously hot and humid conditions.
- While heat advisories are not anticipated elsewhere across the state due to the timing of anticipated rain, heat index values could reach criteria locally along portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- As of 8:00 AM EDT, Major Hurricane Beryl was located about 420 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving westward at 21 mph, and a quick westward to west-northwestward motions is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with stronger gusts, and continued rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so. Beryl poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days but will continue to be monitored.
- Invest 94L over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southern portions of the Bay of Campeche and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. There is a medium chance (50%) for development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida but will bring elevated surf and a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle beaches through the early part of next week.
- Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure (Invest 96L) located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it generally moves westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance (40%) chance for development over the next 48 hours and a high chance (70%) over the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 29, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure building in and anonymously high moisture remaining in place will give way to another day of sea breeze showers and thunderstorms across the state.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the coastlines statewide this afternoon and moving inland with the sea breezes throughout the day (50-85% chance of rain).
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours will be possible.
- Abundant moisture giving way to heavy downpours and slow-moving or training showers and storms may result in instances of localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat indices in the upper 90s and triple digits (100-110).
- Heat Advisories in effect across South Florida as heat indices reach up to 110-degrees.
- These advisories may be expanded further northward towards Lake Okeechobee this afternoon should the sea breezes develop later than expected.
- Heat Advisories may be issued later this morning for portions of North Florida as localized areas will likely reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (up to 113-degrees).
- Moderate risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally continue through the evening hours and early overnight hours before dissipating (15-40% chance of rain).
- Weak onshore flow may allow for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm along the coast overnight.
- Low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s with low to middle 80s along the Southeast Coast and Keys.
- As of 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located about 890 east-southeast of Barbados and moving westward at 21 mph; Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected; Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Sunday; No direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days but will continue to be monitored.
- Invest 94L in the Northwestern Caribbean and a tropical wave in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic have a medium (40%, 60%) chance of development through 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 28, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered showers developing and moving onshore along the Florida Panhandle and Western Peninsula coastlines this morning will build and increase in coverage and push northeastward throughout the day with the help of an upper-level disturbance (60-90% chance of rain).
- Under strengthening high pressure, a typical summertime pattern can be expected across the Peninsula this afternoon and evening with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes (50-70% chance of rain).
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours will be possible during peak heating hours.
- Abundant moisture giving way to heavy downpours and slow-moving storms may result in instances of localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat indices in the upper 90s and triple digits (100-108); Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out.
- Moderate risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast; locally high-risk in Bay County.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evenings and early overnight hours before gradually dissipating across North Florida and the West Coast (35-60% chance of rain).
- A few showers and embedded thunderstorms may linger through the overnight hours across North Florida thanks to the upper-level disturbance (25-50% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s with low to middle 80s along the Southeast Coast and Keys.
- NHC is monitoring three disturbances with potential for tropical development:
- A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave (Invest 94L) continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity; low (30%) chance of development through 7 days; No direct threat to Florida.
- A low-pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands (Invest 95L) is gradually becoming better defined with showers and thunderstorms also showing signs of organization; A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form late today or on Saturday; high (90%) chance of development through 48 hours; No direct threat to Florida over next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
- A tropical wave centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms; low (20%) chance of development through 7 days; No direct threat to Florida over next 7-10 days, at least.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 27th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An upper-level disturbance has begun to produce a cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving eastward across the Florida Panhandle with isolated showers along the Nature Coast this morning.
- This disturbance and a frontal boundary approaching from the north will allow for higher coverage of daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across North Florida throughout the day today (60-85% chance of rain).
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Severe Weather along the I-10 corridor; strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours possible.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze in the Peninsula this afternoon and evening(45-65% chance of rain).
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible with the sea breeze.
- Heavy downpours and slow-moving storms may result in instances of localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s; Heat indices in the upper 90s to triple digits (100-105).
- Moderate risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast; locally high-risk in Bay County.
- Drought conditions continue to deteriorate across North Florida but hold steady across Central Florida.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the evening and early overnight hours (15-40% chance of rain).
- The Florida Panhandle and Nature Coast will see scattered activity continue overnight with the upper-level disturbance (35-65% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the middle 70s to low 80s.
- NHC is monitoring two tropical waves producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
- Invest 94L is located over the western Caribbean Sea and has a low (30%) chance of development through 7 days; No direct threat to Florida.
- Invest 95L is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and has a high (70%) chance of development through 7 days; This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 26th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An upper-level disturbance over the Southeast U.S. will help to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the sea breeze with abundant moisture in place.
- Upper-level support will move overhead along the far western Panhandle, which could lead to a cluster of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developing late this afternoon and evening – Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
- While confidence regarding the cluster of thunderstorms remains low, any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop could produce frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), large hail (quarter-size) and heavy downpours.
- Isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms will move inland along the western Peninsula with the sea breeze, helping to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Peninsula this afternoon and evening, with a few strong thunderstorms possible.
- Plenty of moisture and daytime heating processes will lead to heavy downpours at times, which could bring instances of localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas for portions of the East Coast.
- The large area of high pressure over the dessert southwest will begin to break down and pull away from the Sunshine State but continue to bring warm and muggy conditions statewide.
- Heat Advisories will go into effect around midday across most of North Florida as heat index values of 108-112 are expected and will create dangerous hot and humid conditions.
- Heat index values across the rest of the state will reach the upper 90s to middle 100s.
- Numerous beaches along the Panhandle and East Coast will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents, with a locally high risk along Bay County.
- A tropical wave, Invest 94L, moving into the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized shower activity while it quickly moves westward at around 25 mph. Formation chances through the next 7 days are low (20%), and this system poses no direct threat to Florida.
- A second tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances through the next 7 days are low (30%). This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.