RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N37W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 10N and E of 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery in the SE Gulf of
Mexico waters, while fairly tranquil conditions prevail in the
remainder of the basin. The tail end of a cold front extends
across the far NE Gulf waters along 29N and E of 86W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 25N81W to 23N95W. No significant
convection is noted near these features at this time. A weak
pressure gradient is evident across the Gulf, supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds off northern Yucatan and moderate or
weaker winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are found in the
Gulf. Dense haze is also occurring in the western and central Gulf
from agricultural fires in Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, scattered showers will prevail over the Straits
of Florida today, supported by a mid to upper-level trough that
extends from the southeastern U.S. coast southwestward to the
southeast Gulf. Gusty winds along with rough seas will prevail
near the convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere,
with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continue over Panama and Costa Rica,
in the vicinity of the EPAC monsoon trough. A dry environment
prevails elsewhere. A weak Atlantic surface ridge prevails N of
the area. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to
strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-9 ft in this
area. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas are prevalent.

Dense haze caused from agricultural fires in Mexico is noted
across portions of the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E winds in the south-
central Caribbean will shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela
through Tue night and diminish early on Wed. A deep layer trough
will dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through
Fri, supporting active weather E of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will develop in the central Caribbean Tue and
shift eastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh
speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to thin out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a low pressure near Bermuda to NE
Florida. A combination of an upper level trough entering the
western Atlantic and tropical moisture support a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 55W, are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to
fresh southerly winds are found north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas
in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are present south of 23N and west of 65W. Elsewhere
west of 55W, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

The central and eastern Atlantic are influenced by the 1023 mb
high pressure system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain
moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 12N and
east of 22W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will move
southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE Florida late Tue.
A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend
into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through
Fri night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in the
western Atlantic with the front/trough through midweek, then light
to gentle winds and slight seas are expected through Fri.

$$
ERA