RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 06N20W.
Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 00N15W across 03S41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The southwestern portion of a cold front is analyzed from 25N81W
to 22N87W. Fresh N to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are noted at
the Bay of Campeche and the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall and significantly weaken
over the southeastern Gulf today, dissipating by tonight. Marine
conditions will improve significantly through the weekend as weak
high pressure settles just N of the basin. The next cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the
southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to near gale-force N winds
will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale
force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore
Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weaker pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the
Colombian low has allowed trades to subside a bit across the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft still found off northeastern Colombia. Mostly gentle winds and
2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central basin through
the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward through
tonight, leading to fresh to strong winds becoming confined to
the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during that time, while
marine conditions gradually improve area-wide. High pressure will
build across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading
to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the
Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to move E across the W Atlantic, analyzed
from 31N74W to 26N80W. Near-gale NW winds in its wake, mainly N of
28N and W of 73W. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. To
the E, a surface trough extends along 60W, triggering scattered
showers from 22N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Farther south,
another surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow is
bringing scattered showers from 10N to 16N between 45W and 50W.
Gentle winds and moderate seas dominate north of 20N between 60W
and the cold front/Bahamas. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to
SE winds and moderate to rough seas in large NE swell exist north
of 18N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to
20N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will rapidly weaken and
begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N70W to extreme South
Florida this morning, then dissipate by this evening. Central
Atlantic high pressure will build west- southwestward toward the
Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early
next week in response to the next cold front. This front will move
off the U.S. southeastern coast late Mon, then slow down and
stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will
develop over the NW forecast waters starting late Sun afternoon or
early evening ahead of the front. These conditions will shift
eastward to the north-central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds will follow the front. To the S, rough
seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of
the Bahamas early next week.

$$
ERA