RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

681
AXNT20 KNHC 311801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from
a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas
greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 28N between
28W and 42W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while
gradually subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough
seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 15N between 20W and
55W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06.5N11W and
continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 03N35W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N
between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure is building into the Gulf basin with a 1029 mb high
analyzed over NE Mexico near Matamoros. Scatterometer indicates
fresh to strong NW winds continuing in the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche, with 7-11 ft seas also in these waters, highest seas
offshore Veracruz. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail across the
remainder of the Gulf. Seas range from 4-7 ft between 23N and
28N, with slight seas N of 28N.

For the forecast, fresh north winds and rough seas over the
central and southern basin will diminish this morning. High
pressure will build over the basin today, with moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas over the basin through Thu. Fresh west to
southwest winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week,
ahead of a low pressure system moving across the southern United
States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to Honduras. Moderate to
fresh N winds and moderate seas are W of the front. Fresh to
locally strong winds and moderate seas prevail over much of the
Caribbean S of 17N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. A surface trough is analyzed in the central
Caribbean near 71W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms near
the north end of the trough axis.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse
in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front over
the northwestern Caribbean will weaken and eventually dissipate
over the northwestern basin by late week. Fresh north winds and
rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front, from the Yucatan
Channel through the northwestern basin today. Over the Atlantic
waters, rough seas in N swell will subside by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas in the central
Atlantic.

Aside from the areas discussed in the special features section
above, a cold front extends from 31N63W to eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity
of the front N of 25N and W of 57W. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 6-8 ft are W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 6-9 ft are E of the front to 55W and N of 23N. Another
cold front extends from 31N23W to 20N41W, with a shear line then
continuing from 20N41W to 17N55W to 20N61W. East winds are light
to gentle in the immediate vicinity of the shear line, and
moderate to fresh roughly 50-60 nm to the north of the line.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is east of the
front, N of 26N and out to about 15W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 18W, with fresh to strong
winds N of 28N W of the front to 40W. A 1023 mb high is centered
near 26N50W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in northwest northwest
to north swell east of 60W will continue to subside this morning.
A cold front extending from near 31N63W to the southeastern
Bahamas and to east-central Cuba will weaken as it moves across
the eastern offshore waters Thu. Fresh to locally strong southwest
winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally
north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong W winds and
rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu
as a cold front passes north of the waters. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic, with
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the
waters for late week.

$$
Adams