RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-
Bissau just south of Bissau, then reaches southward to 05N17W.
An ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N17W across 00N38W to near the
Amazon Delta region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near and up to 200 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends southwestward from a 1022 mb high near the Florida
Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the eastern Bay of
Campeche northward to near 24N. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds
and 1 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place
and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate E to
SE winds across most of the basin. The exception will be off the
Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will allow fresh to strong
winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front
moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. The
front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late
Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected ahead of the front over the
northwestern and west-central Gulf beginning on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level low is enhancing widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic and ABC
Islands. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is seen across
much of Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE and
4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the lee of Cuba, near the Windward
Passage and near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE
winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the west of 95N, upper-level low will move slowly westward
and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical
pressure pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh
trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia at night
through Fri night, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected there during the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist in the lee
of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through early today. Winds
and seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough
passes north of the area Fri through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast
of Bermuda through 40N00S to northern Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to
23N between 57W and 71W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
A 1025 mb and a 1026 mb highs near 33N50W is dominating much of
the Atlantic with light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas north
of 26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther
south from 20N to 26N between 35W and the Bahamas, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough will
drift west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today, remain
nearly stationary through Fri while gradually weakening, then
drift farther westward and dissipate through the weekend.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will
persist west of the trough across the southeast Bahamas through
this morning, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as
the trough weakens. High pressure will build into the area from
the east following the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.
Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
late Mon.

$$

Chan