RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

810
AXNT20 KNHC 232310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near Freetown, then continues SW to near 06N15W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 06N15W across 02N30W to NE Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed near the ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 21W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf waters, from
the western Florida Panhandle to 28N91W and to the central coast
of Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this boundary. Otherwise,
a surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region supporting
a gentle to locally moderate wind flow. Seas are generally 2 to
4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft offshore Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger
across the northern Gulf through Sat morning before it lifts
back N as a warm front ahead of a strong Arctic cold front Sat
afternoon. The cold front is expected to approach the Texas coast
early on Sat, then stall as low pressure that forms near the
southern Texas coast rides up along it through Sat night. This
will tend to then drag the front SE across the entire basin Sun
through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure
behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds
across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and possible
gale conditions over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night
into Mon, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon
night. There is some potential for winds in the NW Gulf to at
times reach gale force on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean due to the pressure gradient
between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian/Panamanian
low. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the eastern and
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the NW
part of the basin. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated
to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will
maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while winds pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night
offshore Colombia through Sun, then to near gale force afterward
into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will
slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft
through early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow
the font before slowly diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds
Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak low of 1017 mb is located near 26N74W, with a trough
extending SW to the NW Bahamas, and another trough running NE
from the low to near 31N72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are E of the low and trough from 27N to 30N between 70W and 74W.
Farther E, a cold front crosses the Canary Islands from E to W.
High pressure of 1031 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N33W
dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this
weather pattern, fresh to strong NE winds are noted from 10N to
20N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
25N between 30W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are within these
winds based on altimeter data. Fresh winds are occurring on the
Atlantic side of the Leeward Islands with seas of 8 ft in NE
swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. A band of transverse high clouds associated with very
strong southwesterly winds aloft extends from NE South America
all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will
develop over the NW forecast waters Sun night through early Mon
in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move
offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force
will be just N of the area early on Mon. The front may be attended
by a few thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N70W to the NW
Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Mon evening, from near 31N56W
to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then weaken as
it reaches from near 31N50W to 27N60W and stationary to the SE
Bahamas and eastern Cuba by late on Wed. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon
through Tue, becoming mostly fresh NE winds on Wed within about
180 nm NW of the frontal boundary.

$$
GR