RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

952
AXNT20 KNHC 182326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis is confined to mostly over the African
Continent. To its south, an ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 00N30W
to 01N40W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-38W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ
between 13W-20W, and also south of the ITCZ west of 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge axis extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate
southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen over the western
Gulf per latest scatterometer satellite data, buoy observations
and recent altimeter satellite data. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 ft or less are over most of the eastern Gulf areas.
Mostly gentle southeast winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are
over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward
this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the
Texas coast overnight. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds
and building seas will follow the cold front as it moves across
the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The
front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon
then dissipate into mid week. Looking ahead, fresh southeast winds
will return to the northwest Gulf by late Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad mid to upper-level trough stretches from the central
Atlantic southwestward to the central Caribbean. To its east,
a moist and unstable air mass is helping to promote isolated
showers over the eastern section of the sea. The latest
scatterometer satellite data generally reveals gentle to moderate
trades east of about 72W. Seas are mostly 3 to 4 ft over this
part of the basin. The scatterometer satellite data also
indicates light to gentle winds over the remainder of the sea.
Seas with these winds remain at 1 to 3 ft.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over northern
Colombia and the northwest section of Venezuela. Similar activity
is over the most of the interior of Hispaniola and over
southeastern and south-central Cuba. This activity reaches
the immediate coastal waters.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through midweek next
week. Fresh northeast winds may develop early next week across
the Windward Passage associated with a late-season cold front
moving into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N69W to 28N74W and to the
northern Bahamas. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is southeast of this trough from 28N to 31N between 67W and 69W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere north of 24N between 61W and 70W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for any additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin. To the west of the same trough
a weak 1017 mb high is near 30N77W, with associated weak ridging
west and southwest of the trough. To the east-northeast, a rather
large 1022 mb high center is north of the area at 33N48W. This
feature controls the wind flow pattern across most of the
western and central Atlantic. Its associated gradient is
maintaining light to gentle winds north of 25N and between 35W
and 45W. Seas with these winds are about 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh northeast to east winds are over the rest of the
basin east of 35W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak high pressure ridging
over the western Atlantic will shift eastward tonight ahead of a
cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the
front as it reaches a position from near Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Mon, and from near 31N60W to central Cuba by
late Tue. Looking ahead, winds will diminish through mid week as
the front stalls and dissipates along 22N and high pressure
builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda following the front.
Large N swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into
Thu.

$$
Aguirre