RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260902
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues
southwestward to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 01S40W
and to 01S46W. No significant convection is observed.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE winds off
the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pressure
supports gentle to moderate breezes across the basin. Seas are 2-4
ft off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the
northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sat.
The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning,
reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the
basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through
early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to
sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and
the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Bay Islands of Honduras to
14N80W and scattered showers are evident north of this boundary
and east of 75W. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of
the basin and lower pressures in northern South America forces
fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and moderate to locally rough
seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, off
southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and NW
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week.
Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front
moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through
the early part of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N58W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near this
boundary east of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the stationary
front. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated 6-9 ft seas are
occurring with these winds.

For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient
is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the
far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas
are impacting waters north of 20N and east of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh winds and rough seas
north of front will diminish overnight as the front dissipates.
Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across
the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move
into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and
reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W
to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

$$
Christensen