RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

245
AXNT20 KNHC 280549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Mar 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the waters offshore of NE Florida late tonight. The front will
reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N49W to
Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters
on Tue. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough
to very rough seas of 12-15 ft are expected north and west of the
front from Sat morning through Sun morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01.5N24W. The
ITCZ then continues from that point to 01S36W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 10W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is over the NW Gulf with a surface
trough over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail S of
25N, with locally strong winds in the Bay of Campeche between the
surface trough and the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail
across the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the
northern Gulf through tonight. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the
middle of the next week. The next cold front will move into the
northern Gulf by Sat morning, reach from south Florida to near SE
Louisiana by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on
Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected
in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf on Sat morning.
Then, similar wind speeds are forecast over the eastern Gulf late
Sat through Sun. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough
to sustain fresh east winds and moderate to rough seas across the
southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these
waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the basin. An upper-level shortwave over the
region supports widely scattered showers over much of the
Caribbean N of 17N, including the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week.
Then, high pressure following a strong cold front moving through
the western Atlantic this weekend, will sustain fresh to strong NE
to E winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night
through the early part of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

High pressure prevails across much of the discussion waters. A
surface trough extends from 31N58W to N of Puerto Rico. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen E of the trough out
to about 50W between 20N and 30N. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail across the remaining discussion waters with
surface ridging in place.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the forecast
waters through tonight supporting gentle to moderate easterly
winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the
waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, reach from
31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N49W to Hispaniola
by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue.
Strong high pressure will follow the front. This will bring strong
winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough
seas from Sat morning through Sun morning. As the strong high
pressure moves eastward across the Atlantic, expect fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of
the forecast region likely through Tue night into Wed.

$$
Adams