RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico, will continue to move southeastward and out of
the Gulf tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the
front. A corridor of gales in the west-central Gulf behind the
front will spread eastward across the central and east-central
Gulf today, immediately following the frontal passage. These gales
are expected to end over the east-central Gulf early this evening.
Additional gale conditions offshore Veracruz, Mexico, will
continue today. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the
front, with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf
building today and continuing through tonight. Conditions will
improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall at Belize, Honduras and Guatemala:
Interaction between a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold
front along with abundant tropical moisture will increase the
potential for heavy rainfall across Belize and Honduras today
through Thursday, especially from Tuesday through Wednesday.
Heaviest rainfall is forecast to be near northern Honduras and
southeastern Belize. This will greatly increase the chance of
flashing and urban flooding, and mudslides in hilly terrains.
Please consult products from your local meteorological services
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast,
then extends southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues westward
from 03N20W across 01N30W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between
08W and 23W, and from 02N to 08N between 27W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida
to Veracruz, Mexico, which is generating scattered showers over
the NE and SW Gulf. Gale force N to NW winds follow the front
along with rough to very rough seas to 15 ft over the west-central
basin. Over the NW Gulf N winds are strong to near gale-force and
seas rough to 11 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or
weaker, however these conditions will rapidly worsen as the front
continue to race towards the SE basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and out of the
basin tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the
front. A corridor of gales in the west-central Gulf behind the
front will spread eastward across the central and east-central
Gulf today, immediately following the frontal passage. These gales
are expected to end over the east-central Gulf early this
evening. Additional gale conditions offshore Veracruz, Mexico,
will continue today. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind
the front, with very rough seas through the western and southern
Gulf building today and continuing through tonight. Conditions
will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the
region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United
States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the
Gulf on Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras.

A surface trough accompanied by surging tropical moisture is
generating scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at
the NW basin, including waters near the Cayman Islands. Otherwise,
a robust trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin.
Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to
12 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE
to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted at the north-central
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
evident at the eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Mainly
light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail over the NW
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as
a cold front enters the NW basin. Offshore Colombia, the trade
winds will pulse to near gale each night through Tue night. The
aforementioned cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras Mon
night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to thunderstorms
and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters
through mid-week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
behind the front through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong Azores High of 1034 mb extends a ridge across the entire
subtropical Atlantic waters and into the deep tropics to near 15N.
A few surface troughs are within the central and SW periphery of
the ridge causing areas of scattered showers. Over the SW N
Atlantic waters W of 70W, an approaching cold front tightens the
pressure gradient and support moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft. A tighter pressure gradient over the
central and eastern Atlantic supports fresh to strong NE to E
winds from W Africa to 65W along with rough to very rough seas to
12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will
enhance the trades up to fresh speeds east of 65W through Thu. A
cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast later this
morning, accompanied by strong to near gale-force winds north of
27N. Winds will diminish Mon as the pressure gradient in the
region diminishes. The front will continue to weaken and stall
from Bermuda through The Bahamas on Tue. However, with high
pressure building over the SE United States, an increasing
pressure gradient W of the frontal boundary will boost NW winds to
fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida
Straits into the middle of the week.

$$
Ramos