RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure east of the
Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will
support near-gale to gale-force ENE winds offshore Colombia near
Barranquilla tonight. Seas under these winds are expected to be 9
to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m).

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell will cause 12 to 13 ft (3.5 to 4.0 m) seas north
of 30N between 55W and 65W from early Thursday morning through
late Thursday night. Seas are forecast to drop below 12 ft by
early Friday morning as the swell decays.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then extends southwestward to 02N22W.
An ITCZ continues from 02N22W across 00N27W to 01S37W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 01N to 04N
between 18W and 23W, and from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary meanders along the Gulf coast states from
southern Texas to the Panhandle of Florida. Scattered showers are
seen south of this feature across the northwestern and north-
central Gulf, north of 28N. A surface trough is causing similar
weather at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high at the
west-central Gulf and its related ridge dominate much of the Gulf.
Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
Gulf through Fri, bringing gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will
increase to moderate to fresh Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold
front that will moves cross the western and central Gulf Sat
night and Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the
northern Gulf with this frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

A surface trough is generating scattered showers south of
Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Strong to gale-force NE
winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin.
Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
seen at the north-central and parts of the southwestern basin.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure across Colombia will
relax some Thu to allow fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia
into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail through the weekend. Rough seas over Atlantic waters
east of the Lesser Antilles associated with long-period N well
will continue to decay into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about
rough seas across the western and central.

Two surface troughs are producing patchy showers just northeast
of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and well northeast of the Lesser
Antilles from 18N to 22N between 44W and 51W. A weakening
stationary front extends southwestward from the southern Azores
across 31N35W to 22N52W. No significant weather is associated with
this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 28N
and west of 60W. Farther south, light to gentle winds with seas at 4
to 8 ft in moderate to large NW swell are present from 24N to 28N
and west of 50W, along the Atlantic Ridge axis. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell
exist north 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic
from 06N to 20N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate
with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft swell dominate.
For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate
NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW to W winds N of 28N,
ahead of a cold front that will spread south of 28N late tonight,
then move slowly southeast through the area into Sat. Rough to
very rough seas will accompany the strong winds as they progress
eastward ahead of the front across northern waters. The front will
gradually weaken, and the strong winds will diminish by Fri.
Strong S to SW winds will develop offshore Florida Sun ahead of
another cold that will move off the southeastern U.S. Mon.

$$

Chan