RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Apr 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning in effect
for the marine zones of Agadir through 14/06Z, while the Gale
Warning that was in effect for Tarfaya ended at 14/00Z per their
latest forecast. These conditions are due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure located midway between the Azores
and the Madeira Islands and relatively lower pressures in NW
Africa with troughing in place just inland. Also, expect severe
gusts, very rough seas in long period NW swell. Please refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website
at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then
continues SSW to near 00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to
across portions of northern Brazil, terminating near 02S49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 32W and
50W. Meanwhile, a convergence line or boundary is analyzed just N
of the monsoon trough, from 05.5N18W to 04N28W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted along and near the boundary.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay at
29N85W. A weak surface trough is diffusing in the SW Gulf. Another
surface trough has developed diurnally over the Yucatan Peninsula
resulting in fresh to strong winds along the coast and just
offshore. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are flowing through the
Straits of Florida to western Cuba to just N of the Yucatan
Channel along with 5-7 ft seas, with moderate to fresh winds in
the S-central Gulf. These winds are due to a locally tight
pressure gradient between the NE Gulf high and a Bermuda high,
combined with an old frontal boundary and lower pressures near the
Greater Antilles. Mainly moderate E-SE flow dominates the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf coastal
waters, and 3-5 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the west-central
Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf. This will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas
through Fri. Expect stronger winds to pulse across the SE part of
the Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through Tue, and off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed, driven by local effects
associated with a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front over the Atlantic that reaches northern Hispaniola
and a pre-frontal trough are helping to induce scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean N of 16N and E of 74W.
High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades off and along NW
Colombia, where seas are 7-9 ft. Similar winds are found in the
Lee of Cuba, through the approach of the Windward Passage, and
just S of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh winds
dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft across the
approach to the Windward Passage, 3-5 ft in the eastern and
N-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally
strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong
northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Wed night as
well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Gale Warnings off
Morocco.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a frontal
boundary across the central Atlantic. A cold front enters the
basin near new to 27N53W. A weakening stationary front is from
that point to a 1013 mb low pres near 20N65W to 20N71W. Bermuda
High pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the
western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of America. Fresh to
near-gale NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft are found near and behind
the low/fronts per recent ASCAT scatterometer data and sea
observations, except weaker winds farther from the features N of
29N and W of 70W where gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails. E of the front, high pressure of 1027 mb located midway
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic region. Fresh to strong N-NE winds surround the
Meteo-France Gale Warning discussed above, with these winds N of
20N and E of 20W. Seas are 7-11 ft N of 10N and E of 32W, except
high in the Gale area. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
elsewhere from 07N to 22N and E of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, convection will continue along a
stationary front that is devolving into a surface trough N of
Puerto Rico. The trough will drift west toward Hispaniola and the
SE Bahamas into late week. Strong NE winds and rough seas will
persist W of the trough, with conditions gradually improving
toward the end of the week as the trough weakens.

$$
Lewitsky