RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau just south of Bissau and extends south-southwestward
to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to south
of the Equator at 43W and to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
19W-23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are present in the
eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward to near 24N. Latest
scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the rest of the basin,
except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern part
of the Gulf.

For the forecast a ridge across the northern Gulf will remain in
place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across most of the basin. The exception will
be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will allow fresh
to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh
to strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow a
cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the
early part of the week. The front will stall from the Straits of
Florida to South Texas by late Mon and dissipate through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic
and ABC Islands as well as over sections of the northeastern
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and vicinity waters. A surface
trough extends from the western Atlantic to eastern Haiti.
Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of the
sea. Moderate to locally fresh east-northeast to east-southeast
winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of Cuba, near the
Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest scatterometer
satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast winds
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are about 2 to 4 ft with these
winds.

For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper-level low is
expected to become absorbed into a trough by early on Fri as the
trough shifts eastward toward the northeastern Caribbean. The
surface trough will disrupt the typical pressure pattern across the
basin during this time. Expect fresh trade winds and moderate seas
off the coast of Colombia overnight, then mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected there during the remainder of the week. Winds and
seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes
north of the area Fri through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect
fresh northeast winds early next week across the Windward Passage
associated with a late-season cold front moving across Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast of
Bermuda to 24N60W, to a mid to upper-level low over the north-
central Dominican Republic, and southwestward from there to the
southwest Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 31N63W to the
Turks and Caicos and to eastern Haiti. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 22N between 67W and 71W,
and from 22N to 24N between 65W and 69W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 34N68W
while a 1025 mb high center is just north of the area at 32N49W.
High pressure continues to dominate the wind flow pattern
across the basin, generally north of about 18N and east of the
Lesser Antilles and also north of 21N and west of 61W. The related
gradient is providing for light to gentle winds north of 26N between
35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over
these waters. Farther south from 20N to 26N and between 35W and the
Bahamas, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are present
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft mainly in an east swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

Three other surface troughs are analyzed over the basin, however, no
deep convection is presently occurring with these features.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from
eastern Haiti to the Turks and Caicos to southwest of Bermuda will
move little through Fri, then dissipate through Sat. High pressure
will build into the area from the east following the trough. Looking
ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast
Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by
late Tue.

$$
Aguirre