RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

692
AXNT20 KNHC 032248
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 10N southward, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where
the wave meets the ITCZ. The wave continues to move through a
hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then continues
SW to near 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to NE Brazil
near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 22W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

The late-season cold front now extends from the NW Bahamas along
the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. An area
of showers and thunderstorms is just S of the front affecting
the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere along the front. Latest scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong NW winds over the SW Gulf, including
the Veracruz area. Seas are 9 to 12 ft with these winds. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
noted elsewhere N of the front, with the exception of the northern
Gulf where winds and seas are diminishing.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall and gradually wash out
by tomorrow morning over the far SE Gulf. Strong NW winds offshore
of Veracruz will diminish by tonight. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE
winds will continue behind the front into tonight. Expect Mon and
Tue to see quiet conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Moderate
to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night
into Thu. Looking ahead, Fri may be the start of another quiet
period over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with gentle to locally
moderate E to SE winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are
4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere,
except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage,
including also the coastal waters. Scattered moderate convection,
associated with the equatorial trough, continues to flare up in
the SW Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to
fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean
for the next several days. A weakening cold front is approaching
the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the
Yucatan Channel tomorrow, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras
to increase up to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda across the NW Bahamas into
the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are along
the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data depict moderate
to fresh N to NE winds north of the front, with 4 to 7 ft seas.
Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high
pressure prevails, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure located near
25N63W and 1017 mb high pressure situated SW of the Canary Islands
near 27N24W. Its associated ridge, combined with lower pressures
over W Africa, is promoting an area of moderate to fresh N winds
and moderate to locally rough seas between W Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate
seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N59W
to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W Mon morning. The low
will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda
Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central
Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect
fresh to strong NE winds north of the front tonight and tomorrow.
Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent
Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the
NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward.

$$
GR