RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

069
AXNT20 KNHC 222327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from South Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. A
well-defined band of clouds, with embedded showers, is related
to the front. Gale force winds are likely ongoing offshore
Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, while fresh to strong northerly
winds, with higher gusts, are noted elsewhere in the wake of the
front. Seas are 8 to 13 ft within these winds. The front will
shift quickly southeastward across the basin through tonight.
Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas
will prevail behind the front. Gale-force winds offshore of
Tampico will diminish by this evening, with gale-force winds
offshore of Veracruz through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually
subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and shift E-SE
across the Gulf Tue through Wed.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described
above currently moving through the Gulf of America has exited
the southeast US coast and northern Florida, and now extends from
31N75W to south Florida. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly
building seas are expected behind the front through early Mon.
Seas during this time will build to 12 to 15 ft. The front is
expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning,
and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue
morning, while weakening. The front will stall from 30N55W to the
central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate
through Thu. While winds are forecast to subside below gale force
on Monday, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over much
of the western Atlantic until Tue afternoon, with seas remaining
in the 12 to 15 ft range. Conditions are expected to improve
thereafter.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa through the coast of Liberia near
06.5N11W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 05N between 05W and 15W. Part of this
convective activity is affecting southern Liberia.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
Gale Warning.

At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche. Please, see the Special Features
section for all the information related to the front, including
the forecast.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
develop across the W Gulf midweek ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As the subtropical ridge retreats to the central and eastern
Atlantic due to a cold front moving across the western Atlantic,
the pressure gradient has weakened in the south-central Caribbean,
allowing for trades to diminish to mainly fresh speeds in the
region. Seas remain near 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere in the central
and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail per the
latest satellite scatterometer data, with 4 to 7 ft seas. In the
western Caribbean, light to gentle NE to E winds and slight to
moderate seas are noted. Patches of low level moisture, embedded
in the trade wind flow, are observed across the basin, more
concentrated over the Greater Antilles, including the waters
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Isolated to scattered passing
showers are expected with these patches of moisture.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean will diminish overnight. A strong cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. The front will reach from NW
Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by Tue morning,
then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to SE
Nicaragua midweek. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building
seas behind this front. The forecast calls for winds of 20 to 30
kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft. These marine conditions will also
affect the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
W Atlantic Gale Warning.

At 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from 31N75W to south
Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the east and central Atlantic with
a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 24N42W. The main high
pressure center of 1030 mb is located W of Iberian Peninsula. A
surface trough remains over NW Africa. Under this weather
pattern, gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are
noted around the southern periphery of the ridge N of 20N. Seas
generated by a strong extratropical cyclone located N of area are
reaching the forecast waters N of 29N between 44W and 60W where
seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh
trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft
range. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE winds are noted between
the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the 1030
mb high pressure and the trough over NW Africa. These winds
extend downwind of the islands to about 24N based on
scatterometer data. seas are near 8 ft within these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale force NW winds and
rapidly building seas are expected behind the aforementioned cold
front through early Mon. Please, see the Special Features section
for all the information related to the front, including the
forecast.

$$
GR