RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 222219
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward
to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will
maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas
across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the
eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night
through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to a 1011 mb low
pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh
to strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including
within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas
are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean,
NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central
and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are
light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE
winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of
Hispaniola into Mon night. Then, the high pressure will drift
east, and fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly into
late week offshore Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 33N54W to
eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates
strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the
front to 50W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to
strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas
are 8-12 ft north of 22N between 50W and 65W. In the eastern
Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of
45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the
Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W
and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds
along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into
the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating.
A new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine
conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N
into mid-week before the front lifts northward.

$$
ERA