RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the
northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through
early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough
seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of
Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Winds and seas should
gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the
front.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 01S30W and to 01S47W. A few showers
are noted near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Gale Warning is in effect for the western and SW Gulf. Please,
see the Special features section for more information.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward
over the Gulf region. The tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Yucatan
support fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 26N
and between 87W and 91W, just north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting
smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing
hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow,
moving across the cooler coastal waters will also cause the
development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the
NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana tonight into Sat morning. Dense
Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters.

For the forecast, an Atlantic ridge extending westward along 27N into
the central Gulf will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas at the central and western Gulf through
Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the
Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops
daily over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands
supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas
in the south-central Caribbean. A partial scatterometer satellite
pass captured peak winds to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of
the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge
along 27N and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the eastern Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and
across the south-central Caribbean through Sun. These winds will
reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia. Moderate
to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the
Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger
E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses
across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will
move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the
northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from near Haiti to near
the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N
winds and rapidly building seas behind this front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate
to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-10 ft north of 28N
and west of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 30W. Decaying NW
swell is producing rough seas north of 20N and east of 35W. In
the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough
seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the
central Atlantic along 27N to the NW Bahamas this evening, and
will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate
to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida
tonight through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected
elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to near-gale NW winds
and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next
week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central
Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican
Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall and
weaken quickly from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic on
Wed.

$$
Delgado