RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf
late tonight, supporting strong to near gale-force N-NE winds and
rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from
Apalachicola, Florida, to Tampico, Mexico, Sat night, from near
Fort Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of Campeche Sun afternoon,
then exit the basin by Sun night. Winds will strengthen to gale-
force over portions of the waters behind the front Sat night and
Sun, then end Sun night. Very rough seas are also expected through
the weekend. Conditions will quickly improve by Mon.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N17W to 02N31W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 01N to 06N between 12W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Broad surface high pressure ridging extends southwestward from
the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche, with mainly gentle
to moderate SE winds. W of 92W, southerly winds are increasing
ahead of a cold front moving through Texas, and fresh speeds are
ongoing. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 3 to 5 ft where the
fresh S winds are present, and 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf in
decaying NW swell. No convection is present.

For the forecast, please read the Special Features section for
information on the gale force winds expected over the Gulf this
weekend. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United
States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the
Gulf on Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has stalled from far eastern Cuba to the NE coast of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are NW
of this front. A surface trough S of Jamaica is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 12N to 17N between 74W and 80W.
Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
extends into the northeastern Caribbean, which is causing to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas most of the basin
east of the front. Locally strong E winds have developed offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate Sat. Fresh
to strong trades will pulse offshore of NW Colombia and the
central Caribbean tonight and the next few nights, reaching near-
gale force at night starting Sat night and into early next week.
Looking ahead, a new cold front will arrive in the NW Caribbean
Sun night and - as high pressure builds in behind it - fresh to
strong NE winds should prevail through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N70W through the Turks and
Caicos and into far eastern Cuba. No significant convection is
associated with this weakening front. Fresh S winds are ahead of
the front N of 29N, to about 55W, and fresh NE winds follow the
front for about 120 nm, before they decrease to light to gentle as
high pressure over Florida builds toward the waters. Rough seas
are behead to cold front to 75W, with very rough seas to 14 ft
present N of 27N between 64W and 71W.

Farther east, a 1038 mb high pressure centered near the Azores
governs the weather conditions across the eastern and central
Atlantic. Fresh to strong trade winds seas of 8 to 11 ft are
noted east of 50W and north of 18N, except these conditions
extend as far south as the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern
Atlantic. A cold front disrupting the overall high pressure
extends from the Moroccan coast through the Canary Islands and
west to 31N35W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
prevail north of the front, with similar wind speeds and seas
heights south of the front, due to the aforementioned trade winds.
Elsewhere, closer to the northeastern Caribbean, moderate to
fresh wind speeds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front in the
western Atlantic will reach from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning
where it will stall and weaken. Another cold front may impact the
basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas.

$$
Konarik