RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 062341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Feb 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell:
A cold front is extends from near 31N59W south-southwestward to
25N62.5W and to then eastern portion of the Dominican Republic.
latest scatterometer satellite data passes show gale-force winds
north of 28N between 58W and 61W. Rough seas are noted N of 23N
and W of 60W, with very rough seas up to 16 ft N of 26N between
65W and 77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the
cold front to near 54W and north of about 25N.

The cold front should reach from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat
morning, then weaken from 22N55W to the Leeward Islands by early
Sun. A reinforcing cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast early tonight, and reach from 31N55W to the
southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and
dissipate along 22N through early next week. Minimal to strong
gale-force winds and seas up to 30 ft will follow the second
front north of 27N this weekend. Seas will gradually subside from
W to E early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from near 09N13W and
extends southwestward to 05N16W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 04N20W to 02N24W to the Equator at 30W and to below the
Equator at 02S36W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
southeast of the ITCZ between 21.5W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high centered over the western Gulf is supporting
generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. Winds in the
far northern Gulf are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 6-9 ft in
the far SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel and FL Straits, to 3-6 ft
across much of the remaining Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the far NW Gulf
along the TX coast.

For the forecast, post-frontal fresh to strong west to northwest
winds will continue over the NE and eastern Gulf tonight and
tomorrow morning. Diminishing high pressure will set up north of
the Gulf leading toward quiescent conditions from Sat afternoon
through at least the middle portion of the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the eastern Dominican Republic
southwestward to 15N76W and to just north of northern Panama.
Latest scatterometer satellite data passes depict fresh to
strong north winds west of the front and south of 18N. Seas are
in the range of 7 to 10 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds are elsewhere west of the front along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are east of the
front. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
confined to south of 13N between 75W and 78W. This activity is
being aided by the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean
monsoon trough plus another nearby trough that extends from
18N70W to 14N75W and to the monsoon trough portion that is in
northwest Colombia.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front currently moving across
the northwestern Caribbean, from Haiti to 11N82W, will stall
from the eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat
morning, then will dissipate by Sat evening. Fresh to strong N
winds with rough seas will prevail across W and SW portions of
the basin through Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas between Colombia and Hispaniola Sun night through Wed night
as high pressure builds north of the area after multiple Atlantic
frontal passages. Additionally, large or very large N to NW
swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical
N Atlantic waters beginning on Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on gale
warnings and on areas of significant swell.

A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the Special Features cold
front from 31N53W to 25N55W and to near 22N58W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between
49W and 54W.

Outside of the gale warning areas, strong to near-gale southwest
to northwest winds and rough seas are noted north of 23N and
west of 60W. To the east, north of 20N between 45W and 60W, fresh
to strong southerly winds and rough seas are present. For areas
north of 20N and east of 40W, rough to very rough seas persist in
decaying NW swell, with seas of 12 to 16 ft continuing north of
26N and east of 30W, with highest seas located to the north of
the Canary Islands. Winds in this region are light to gentle due
to a 1024 mb high that is analyzed near 29N27W. Farther south
from 05N to 13N between 28N and 45W, a swath of fresh to strong
trades was highlighted by afternoon scatterometer satellite data
passes. For much of the remaining tropical Atlantic east of 60W,
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate to
locally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast, aside from that mentioned above under the
Special Features section, yet another cold front is forecast to
quickly move across the waters north of 28N Tue and Wed, but peak
winds are anticipated to only reach up to a strong breeze.

$$
Aguirre