RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 042300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern
Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support
strong to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas
across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through
at least Sat night. Winds offshore of Colombia are expected to
pulse, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt during the late morning to early
afternoon hours, then increase to gale force at night. Gale force
winds are forecast to begin tonight shortly before midnight.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N35W to 01N26W to 01N36W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01.5N to 06N between 12W and 22W, and is ongoing off
the coast of Brazil, S of 02N and W of 42W to well inland.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward
along 32N-33N and inland across the north Gulf states to eastern
Texas. This low level pattern is combining with generally stable
upper level conditions to produce generally quiet weather across
the basin. Moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas to 5 ft
prevail, except across the Florida Straits, where fresh E winds
and seas to 6 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend
a broad ridge west-southwestward into the SE U.S. into the
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf,
pulsing to fresh to strong each night off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Strong high pressure across the central Atlantic continues to
extend west-southwestward into the SE U.S. this afternoon. The
resultant pressure gradient to the south is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, where
seas are moderate to rough, with peak seas of 10-11 ft offshore
Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh to strong from
the E-NE, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while moderate to locally fresh
E-NE winds remain in the lee of Cuba and the remainder NW
Caribbean, along with moderate seas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms extends in a narrow band from NE Honduras
and Nicaragua northeastward across the west coast and coastal
waters of Jamaica to the SE coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, a broad ridge of high pressure will prevail N
of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale- force
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun.
Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the
overnight hours through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through the
forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds
will pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very
rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N
Atlantic will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic basin, centered on a 1039 mb high near 40N38W. The tail
end of a stalled front along 32N between 40W and 55W weakens the
ridge. Scattered showers are S of the front and north of 25N,
between 40W and 60W. South of the ridge, fresh to locally strong
trade winds prevail S of 22N between 45W and Cuba. E of 45W,
fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail S of 28N. Rough seas to
10-11 ft prevail across much of the eastern and central Atlantic,
due to long period NE swell propagating from a former gale- force
low near Morocco mixing with the locally induced wind waves.
Elsewhere over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to
moderate from the east. This broad easterly wind flow south of the
ridge is producing seas to 8 ft as far W as 70W per recent buoy
observations.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will prevail S of 24N
and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas
E of 65W and N of 26N will begin to subside tonight as the ridge
begins to shift eastward and weaken slightly. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail S of 25N through the period, reaching strong
speeds N of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Gentle to
moderate winds can be expected N of 25N.

$$
Stripling