RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stays mostly over the African Continent. To the
south, an ITCZ meanders westward from 04N15W through 00N30W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate
SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are seen over the western Gulf. Light
to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf.
Gentle SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken
today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold
front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early
part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to
south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, widely scattered
showers are found across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate
E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist across the eastern and central
basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through midweek next
week. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the
Windward Passage associated with a late-season cold front moving
into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs from 30N71W to the central Bahamas. Patchy
showers are seen up to 30 nm along either side of this feature.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for any additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin. A large, 1023 mb high near 32N48W
is dominating much of the western and central Atlantic. Light to
gentle winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 25N between
35W and 45W. For the remainder of the Atlantic basin east of 35W,
moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from
the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to
move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front
as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon,
from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and
dissipating along roughly 22N through midweek.

$$

Chan