RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya,
and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least
15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N19W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis,
Brazil at 01N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 20W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pre-frontal trough has entered the NW Gulf, enhancing scattered
moderate convection N of 28N between 87W-91W. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge extending southwestward from central Florida to
south of Tampico, Mexico dominates the area. Fresh to near-gale
southerly return flow and moderate seas prevail over the
northwestern waters. Strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are
noted across the central Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail across the northern portion of the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the fresh to near-gale southerly winds and
moderate seas will prevail over the northwestern waters ahead of
a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf waters by tonight. As
the front moves across the basin, rough seas will develop across
the northern Gulf today. The front is forecast to move SE of the
area by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pres
will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with
slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Haiti to 15N75W. A trade-wind
regime persist for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas are present off northwestern Colombia,
south of the Dominican Republic and near the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong ENE winds and moderate seas are found at the lee
of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough
seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will also pulse
over the Windward Passage and S of the Dominican Republic today as
a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight
pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except
for light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N48W to 23N56W, then continues as a stationary to the
Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted up to 80 nm along either side of the cold front. A 1024
mb high off the Georgia/South Carolina coast is supporting gentle
to moderate NE to SE winds with moderate seas north of 26N and
west of 50W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate
seas from 20N to 26N and west of 55W, including the central and
southeast Bahamas. Between 50W/55W and 35W, and north of 20N,
moderate with fresh SE to S winds and rough seas in mixed
moderate to large swells exist. For the tropical Atlantic from the
Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to
build in the wake of the central Atlantic front. S winds will
strengthen offshore north and central Florida today in advance of
a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon. The
cold front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving
east of the area the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. These
winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas
lingering E of 60W.

$$
ERA