RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

360
AXNT20 KNHC 232342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 10N15W to 04N20W and to 01N26.5W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to south of the Equator near 28W and continues to
04S35W and northwestward to 02S43W to the Equator at 50W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 05N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the trough between 25W-29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An mid to upper-level trough extends from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to 26N88W and to the Yucatan Peninsula while an
amplifying upper-level shortwave trough is moving through its
southern portion across the southeastern Gulf. Upper-level dynamics
associated with the trough is supporting an area of numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf south of 26N between
82W and 86W moving generally east-southeastward, and newly developed
shower and thunderstorm activity over the south-central Gulf from
23N to 25N between 87W and 90W. This activity is accompanied by
heavy rainfall reducing visibility and is attendant by gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. The strongest cells appear to be
approaching the northwest portion of Cuba. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf portions.
The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast
winds over the eastern part of the basin, and gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over
the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate
seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next
week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the
evenings. The aforementioned area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf will continue east-
southeastward through early Fri. The activity over the south-
central Gulf will move southeast to south into early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Isolated
showers are near the trough, however, clusters of moderate
convection are north of 20N west of 82W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are in the lee of Cuba and
near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft
seas are west of the front to near 55W and north of 26N. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 26N
between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate northeast to
southeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The
remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift
northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along
the trough axis east of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle
to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the
forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the
northeast waters, where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and
rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips
the region by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Aguirre