RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning:

Latest ASCAT satellite derived winds data reveal the 1014 mb low
to be near 29N55W. Strong to gale-force NE to E winds are seen
across the northern halve of the low. Seas at 12 to 18 ft (3.5 to
5.5 m) are found at the western and northern half from the
center, north of 26N between 55W and 60W. This low will continue
to weaken this afternoon and evening, allowing winds to drop
below gale-force this afternoon. Seas will also subside gradually
and should be below 12 ft by early Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information
this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs west-southwestward to near
06N14W. An ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01N32W to 03N40W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 02N to 05N between 20W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is note south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N
between 10W and 15W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore
waters of Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Tampa, Florida to
24N94W, then curves northwestward as a stationary front to
northeast Mexico. Patchy showers are occurring along this frontal
boundary. A surface trough is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist
north of the front. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with 2 to 4
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Winds and seas north of the front should begin
to subside late this afternoon as the front weakens. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are then expected over much of the
Gulf this weekend as the front slowly dissipates. Locally fresh
NE winds will be possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a
trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas
will develop over the central and eastern Gulf early next week as
another cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern
United States. Locally strong NE winds and rough seas will be
possible through the Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the western Gulf of Honduras. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with 8 to 10 ft
seas are present at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE
to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft dominate the northwestern and far
southwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force winds
and rough seas are expected offshore from northern Colombia
through early next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will occur over much of the basin through this weekend, supported
by high pressure to the north. Winds may occasionally pulse to
strong in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE
swell in the Atlantic waters will slowly subside through tonight,
before rough seas redevelop Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, a
cold front passing to the north of the Caribbean will support
widespread fresh NE winds west of 70W by early next week, with
strong winds possible through the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the western and central Atlantic.

A weak cold front curves southwestward from the aforementioned
low in the Special Features section to 25N57W, then continues as a
shear line to just east of the central Bahamas. Patchy showers
are found up to 30 nm along either side of the front/shear line.
Convergent southerly winds east of the low and front are producing
scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 47W and 53W.
Another cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas
across 31N78W to beyond Daytona Beach, Florida. Patchy showers are
evident up to 40 nm along either side of the front. Convergent
southerly winds farther east are generating scattered moderate
convection north of 27N between 72W and 77W. To the south, a
surface trough embedded within the trades is causing similar
convection near and offshore State Amapa, Brazil. At the eastern
Atlantic, a third cold front curves northwestward from the Canary
Islands to beyond 30N31W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm
along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Fresh to strong SE to WSW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seem
north of the cold front off Florida. Outside the area mentioned
in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh E to SSE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed large swells are
dominate the western Atlantic north of 05N/Greater Antilles and
west of 50W. Farther east, north of 25N between 35W and 50W,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft in large
northerly swell exist. To the south from 05N to 25N between 35W
and 50W, moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 9 to 11 ft seas in
large NE swell are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 7
ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds are
expected into this evening to the north and west of the low
mentioned in the Special Features section, north of 27N and east
of 62W. Widespread rough to very rough seas in N to NE swell
associated with this storm system will continue east of 65W, with
very rough seas in excess of 12 ft expected north of 26N into this
evening. Seas will slowly diminish early Sat through Sat night.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds, with locally near-gale
force winds, and rough seas will occur offshore of Florida to 70W
ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of the southeastern
U.S. Winds will turn to the W and weaken from west to east behind
the front this afternoon through tonight. Looking ahead, a strong
cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern U.S. late
Sun into early Mon, supporting widespread strong NE winds and
rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into the middle of
next week.

$$

Chan