RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...LONG PERIOD SWELL AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS...

Long-period NW swell is moving through the north central Atlantic
Ocean, in the wake of a dissipating stationary front, 31N40W
25N50W 21N69W. A reinforcing cold front will move into the area
on Tuesday. A second set of long-period NW swell will follow the
reinforcing front, and propagate through the north central and
northeastern Atlantic Ocean subtropical waters through Thursday.
The forecast for the next 24 hours, until Tuesday night, consists
of: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas, from 18N northward
between 35W and 64W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and
passages. Expect from Tuesday night until Wednesday night: strong
W winds, and very rough seas, from 30N northward between 37W and
45W. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough to very rough seas,
elsewhere from 18N northward between 35W and 64W. Expect also:
winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas, from 12N to 14N between
55W and 59W. The forecast for Wednesday night, at 48 hours,
consists of: winds 20 knots or less, and rough to very rough seas,
from 09N northward between 35W and 58W.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level wind flow from a trough is covering the areas that are
from Florida to the Gulf of Honduras. The southernmost part of an
Atlantic Ocean dissipating stationary front passes through 23N60W
to 21N69W. A separate surface trough is along 22N72W, through the
Windward Passage, to 11N77W in the Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are
in the Atlantic Ocean within 120 nm on either side of the surface
trough. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 27N southward
from 57W westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous moderate to strong is from 14N to the Jamaica coastal
waters between the surface trough and 80W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere within 360 nm on either side of the
surface trough. These features will be slow to move, and to evolve
during the next 2 days to 3 days. The forecast consists of
multiple rounds of heavy rain. It is appearing that heavy
precipitation may be occurring from Haiti to the Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos, from today through early Wednesday. It is
possible that Haiti and Jamaica may see heavy rain to continue
through Thursday. The extended period of heavy rain will increase
the risks for flash flooding and mudslides and landslides. This
information was provided by the International Desk meteorologists
at the WPC. Please, refer to the WPC, and/or to your country's
local meteorological agency for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W, to 04N30W 03N43W 04N50W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the area
toward the SW corner of the Gulf.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, in general, cover the
Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for slight to moderate seas in the
coastal waters of NE Mexico. Another exception is for fresh NE
winds within 100 nm off the coast of NW Cuba; and for moderate to
fresh southerly winds from 90W westward.

A ridge will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds will persist over the western
Gulf before diminishing briefly ahead of a weak cold front
forecast to move off the coast of Texas tonight into Tue. The
front will extend along the northern Gulf through Tue, then move
NE of the area Tue night. Another cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf waters by late Thu morning. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf Tue
night through Wed night ahead of the second front, which will
reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico early on
Fri, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri
night. The front will exit the basin on Sat. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds
may briefly reach minimal gale force near the Veracruz area on
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
heavy rainfall event, affecting the northern Caribbean Sea.

A separate surface trough is along 22N72W, through the Windward
Passage, to 11N77W in the Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh to some
strong NE to E winds are between Puerto Rico and 80W. Fresh NE
winds are elsewhere from Puerto Rico eastward. Strong NE winds are
within 30 nm on either side of 20N84W 18N86W 17N88W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 15N
northward from 80W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the
Caribbean Sea. An exception is for slight seas in the coastal
waters of Honduras and Nicaragua.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 26/1200 UTC, are: 0.06 in Guadeloupe; and 0.05 in Curacao.
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between a broad area of low pressure over
the SW Caribbean and high pressure over the SW N Atlantic is
supporting fresh easterly winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW basin.
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast basin-wide the remainder of
the forecast period, except in the lee of eastern Cuba where
locally strong NE winds are likely on Tue as a low pressure
develops in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Otherwise, the
area of low pressure will meander in the SW Caribbean and
dissipate Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
long period swell, the wind speeds, and the rough to very rough
seas, that are in the Atlantic Ocean.

The dissipating stationary front is along 31N40W 25N50W 21N69W.
A surface trough curves from 22N72W beyond the Windward Passage.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from
the front eastward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is close to
26N38W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the front
westward. A 1023 mb high pressure center is close to 28N67W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the
front and trough northward between 67W and 75W.

Fresh to moderate NE winds are from 22N southward between 40W and
60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 22N
southward from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh NW winds are from
28N northward between the dissipating stationary front and 70W.
Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward between 31W and the
dissipating stationary front. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong E winds, and moderate
seas, are from 22N to 25N between 70W and 74W. Slight to moderate
seas are elsewhere from 74W westward. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A dissipating stationary front extending from 31N40W to 21N68W
will dissipate early Tue as a low pressure develops over the
vicinity of the southern Bahamas. The low pressure will open up
into a trough over the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba on Thu.
The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue
night before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. A
stronger cold front is forecast to move offshore NE Florida on
Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of the front.

$$
mt/nr