RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231213
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 15.0N 74.9W at 23/0900
UTC or 210 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered heavy showers
and strong thunderstorms are occurring up 95 nm in the NW quadrant
from the center, and farther southeast and south of the center
from 12N to 16N between 75W. Peak seas are from 18 to 20 ft just
north and east of the center. A slow northwest or north motion is
forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward
turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected
to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
during the next couple of days. Little change in strength is
expected during the next day or so, but significant strengthening
is expected by late Friday and over the weekend. Melissa is
forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Swells
generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 30W from
16N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 09N to 12N between 25W and 32W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 34W from
18N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 32W and 37W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic just north of the
Mauritian/Senegal border, and curves southwestward to 08N23W,
then continues westward to 09N41W. An ITCZ continues from 09N41W
to 11N59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the trough from 02N to 06N and east of 32W.

The tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front runs northwestward from near Cape Coral, Florida to
27N86W, then continues westward as a stationary front to just
south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near the front and farther south near 24N91W. Gentle to
moderate NNE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present over the
eastern and central Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to SE winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the whole aforementioned frontal boundary will
stall across southern Florida and the northern Gulf by this
evening and then dissipate on Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will continue through this evening. Winds will
increase over the eastern Gulf by Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens between the building high pressure to the north and
Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean. Winds across the
eastern Gulf might decrease on Mon as the high slides eastward
into the Atlantic.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific
information on Tropical Storm Melissa.

Convergent easterly winds along the northeastern periphery of
Meissa's broad wind field are producing scattered heavy showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico. A surface trough is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Sea. Outside the direct impact of Tropical Storm
Melissa, fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are
evident east of Melissa from 14N to the coast of Hispaniola
between 70W and 73W. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds and 9 to 13 ft
seas are noted west of Melissa from 13N to near Jamaica between
75W and 78W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft
dominate the eastern basin, and the eastern portion of the central
basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the
northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of
3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 15.2N 75.0W this
afternoon, 15.6N 75.0W Fri morning, 16.0N 75.0W Fri afternoon,
16.4N 75.1W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N
75.4W Sat afternoon, and 16.7N 76.0W Sun morning. Melissa will
change little in intensity as it moves to just south of Jamaica
early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas across
31N76W to near Palm City, Florida. Patchy showers and seen near
this feature. A broad surface trough is coupling with an upper-
level trough to trigger widely scattered moderate convection from
10N to 29N between 63W and 75W. Another weak cold front curves
southwestward from the Azores across 31N33W to 28N50W. Patchy
showers are found near and up to 50 nm north of the front. A
surface trough curves from 31N30W to 20N47W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted up to 50 nm along either side of this
feature.

Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of 22N and west of 47W. To the south from 18N to 22N and
west of 55W, moderate to fresh ESE to SSE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are present. Farther east, gentle NNW to NE to E winds with 5 to 7
ft seas in moderate N swell exist north of 20N between 35W and
47W/55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 18N/22N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE
to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle with locally
moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed moderate
swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front across
the western Atlantic will move farther southeastward and stall
from near Bermuda to southern Florida by Fri night. High pressure
building in behind the front will support strong NE to E winds and
rough seas north of the boundary Fri through Sun while it
weakens. These winds and seas will decrease on Mon as the front
weakens. However, both will increase again in the Great Bahama
Bank toward midweek the pressure gradient rise due to Tropical
Storm Melissa moving northward into the north-central Caribbean.

$$

Chan