RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
|1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A Monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guiana, then curves southwestward from 11N15W and extends
southwestward to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to near
01N28W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
observed south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W
and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80
nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 30W, and west of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep-layer trough extends southwestward from Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Divergent flow east of this feature is enhancing
scattered heavy showers with intense thunderstorms and gusty winds
at the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge runs
southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area. This ridge provides
moderate to fresh southeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the
eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
Gulf-wide through the weekend. The exception will be off the
Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate
winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Patchy
showers are occurring near Jamaica and crab. Moderate to fresh
ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found at the lee of Cuba
and near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than
usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend.
This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low near 33N45W
across 31N46W to 24N55W, then continues as a stationary front to
Hispaniola. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either
side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from
21N53W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are
found near the feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered heavy showers near the coast of French Guiana. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found along and
up to 100 nm northwest of the front, including the Great Bahama
Bank. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve
late this week as the front weakens and eventually dissipates
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to
locally westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on
Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$

Chan