RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

401
AXNT20 KNHC 260359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters
is supporting rough to very rough seas. Seas are forecast to
subside below 12 ft E of 35W by Thu morning, but rough seas of 8
to 11 ft will persist into the upcoming weekend. Over the central
waters seas of 8 to 12 ft will gradually subside from NW to SE
over the next couple of days.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N31W and to near 02S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds
and rough seas in the NW Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds and moderate seas are seen north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, broad high pressure extending from the central
Atlantic southwestward across the Gulf will shift E-NE across the
western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow across the NW Gulf will expand across the SW and central Gulf
tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf early Fri. This weak cold front is expected to sink
slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat
night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will
dominate the basin Sun and Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern portion of a stationary front continues to bring
scattered showers to Hispaniola and nearby waters. The remnants of
the frontal boundary in the central Caribbean support a few showers
near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tight pressure
gradient between the expansive subtropical ridge in the central
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia sustain strong
to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean. Mainly fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
occurring in the north-central, including the Windward Passage,
and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge
southwestward across S Florida and into the W Gulf of America. The
high will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and
maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic,
bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in
the Tropical N Atlantic through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the Significant Swell Event in the central and eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N50W to the northern Dominican
Republic. A few showers are occurring near this boundary, with
the strongest convection affecting the SE Bahamas and nearby
waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to
rough seas are found south of 25N and west of the front. Seas of 8
to 11 ft in NW swell follow the front. The rest of the central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive
subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure located SW
of the Azores near 34N32W. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa
forces moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough to very
rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will drift W and dissipate
Thu as the high pressure N of the front shifts NE into the
central Atlantic, producing a broad ridge across the entire region
that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will move off
the SE U.S. coast Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken
through Sun. Seas will gradually subside through Thu night, with
seas lingering around 8 ft over the SE waters through the end of
the period.

$$
Delgado