RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

389
AXNT20 KNHC 230429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N35W to 01N38W to 01N51W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon
trough and east of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low-level convergence from western Cuba to SE Texas results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the
central Gulf waters. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of
90W and south of 26N, eastern Bay of Campeche and in the north-
central Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate
seas will persist in the SE Gulf through Thu night. High pressure
will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak
pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to
moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through late week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and
the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this weakening front
and higher pressures to the north support fresh to strong NE winds
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, as shown by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found in the south-central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight.
High pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next
couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a storm-force low pressure in the North
Atlantic to 31N51W and then to 23N57W, where it becomes a
stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers are
noted near and ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong
N-NE winds and rough seas are occurring within behind this front.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge
between Florida and Bermuda.

In the NE Atlantic, a broad low pressure is producing large
northerly swell, supporting rough seas north of 27N and between
17W and 37W, along with moderate to locally fresh westerly winds.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas pf 5-8 ft are
present south of 23N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient prevails sustaining moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N51W to 23N58W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front
as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually
improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh
westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as
another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$
Delgado