RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

811
AXNT20 KNHC 102309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
29N90W to 22N97W. Gale force N winds have developed near Tampico
earlier this afternoon, and same conditions are expected in
Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak
around 45 kt near Veracruz tonight. Seas will quickly build and
likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz on Sun. The
front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan
Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions
in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
07N12W, then runs westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 07N between 31W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above
for details.

As previously mentioned, a strong cold front is moving across the
Gulf region. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is along
the front. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a
surface ridge, that extends from near Bermuda, across Florida
into the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
moderate seas are ahead of the front, with the exception of slight
seas within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, outside of the strong cold front, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the
basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of
these winds. Seas in these waters are in the rough range.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
prevail, except for fresh to strong in the Windward Passage and
Lee of Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the
pressure gradient between building high pressure N of the region
and low pressure over northern Colombia. Rough seas to 12 ft will
occur within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to strong winds
will prevail there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast
elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds will prevail. A decaying cold front may move into or
near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and
wash out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1026 mb high pressure system centered north of Bermuda
near 33N65W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida
and the Bahamas. To the E, a 1018 mb low pressure system is
analyzed near 28N52W. A surface trough extends from 30N42W to the
low center, then continues SW to near 21N61W. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail across most of the waters
N of 20N and W of 55W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on
the E side of the low and trough. This convective activity covers
roughly the waters from 20N to 26N between 45W and 52W. Farther
E, high pressure of 1030 mb located near the Madeira Islands
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in
the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to
the coast of west Africa with rough seas per altimeter data.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are noted over
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds across
the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the
approaches to the Windward Passage are forecast to persist through
Sun, with strong winds near the Windward Passage. A new cold
front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW
winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to
reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning.
Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon
night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed
night.

$$
ERA