RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Waring:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir and
Tarfaya Marine Zones starting 14/12 UTC. For more details, please
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 05N18W.
An ITCZ continues from 05N18W through the Equator at 30W to
near Sao Luis, Brazil at 02N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 1N to
05N and east of 16W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 05N between 20W
and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front meanders northwestward from southern
Florida to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Patchy showers are found
up to 30 nm along either side of this boundary. Latest
observations along with composite satellite imagery reveal patchy
dense fog is present near northern Yucatan Peninsula, Naples
Florida and along the Texas/Louisiana coast. Moderate to fresh NE
to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the western
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to E
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the central and eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to
gentle winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of
moderate winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will
increase to between fresh and strong on Sat ahead of a cold front
that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW
winds and rough seas are expected in the north-central and
northeastern Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. The front is
forecast to move southeast of the area by Mon. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough is generating scattered showers near
Hispaniola and south of Jamaica. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind
regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are evident off northwestern
Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
dominate the southeastern and rest of the south-central basin,
including the ABC Islands. Moderate with locally fresh NE winds
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through midweek next week. Moderate to rough
seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over
the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic this
weekend as a high pressure passes north of the area and tightens
the gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas will prevail through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N54W to 25N72W, then continues westward as a stationary
front to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are present
near and up to 100 nm northwest of the front. Farther southeast,
convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 56W and 62W, and north of 26N
between 47W and 53W. Near and north of the Mona Passage, a surface
trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

For the western Atlantic north of 20N between 55W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast, gentle to moderate SW to NW to NE
winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are evident. To the east, moderate to
fresh E to SSE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 20N
between 35W and the cold front/55W. For the tropical Atlantic from
the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle
to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of it. S
winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in
advance of another cold front that will move off the southeast
U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front.

$$

Chan