RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

204
AXNT20 KNHC 251104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gales and Significant Swell: A strong cold front
extends from 31N59W to 28N70W and to 31N77W. Gale force winds of
30 to 35 kt behind the front to near 63W will continue until late
this morning. However, large NW swell behind the cold front will
cause 12 to 15 ft seas north of 30N between 57W and 67W late
tonight. Seas are expected to build higher to between 12 and 20 ft
and spread to 27N between 53W and 69W this morning. These seas
will gradually subside to between 12 and 17 ft but shift to north
of 25N between 49W and 64W by this evening.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near 09N13W, and continues southwestward to near 05N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 04N40W and to near
05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W and 50W, and within 30
nm south of the ITCZ between 43W-45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
strong thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, A
1027 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are present at the south-central and southeastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft seas are over the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1027 mb high over the NE Gulf will continue to
support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate to
rough seas across the south-central and southeastern Gulf through
tonight. Areas of fog, some could be dense, will continue to be
possible across the northern Gulf through the weekend. A ridge will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the
remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the
northeast Gulf through Sat while weakening. This system will produce
mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the
northwest Gulf on Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and rough seas, except gale conditions will be possible in the far W
central Gulf, and in the northwest part of the SW Gulf Mon night.
Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible in the NW Gulf Mon
and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean
Sea. Convergent trades are creating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and south of Haiti. Fresh
to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident at the
south-central basin, lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage
and near Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas
are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas
at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage,
and the central Caribbean through tonight, except through Mon off
Colombia. Long period northerly swell moving into the northeastern
passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be followed by
additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern passages
late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features at the beginning about Gale conditions
behind a cold front and ongoing significant swell.

A strong cold front is analyzed from 31N59W to 28N70W and to
31N77W. Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 60 nm north of the front. Scattered o
numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms north of 27N
between 54W and 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a weakening
stationary front reaches southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N37W to 27N43W and to 24N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen north of 21N between 38W and 49W.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft dominate
north of 27N between 52W and 72W. Gentle to moderate north to
northeast winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N and
west of 72W. From 20N to 27N between 52W and 72W, gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large northerly
swell exist. Farther east, north of 20N between 35W and 52W,
gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in large NW
swell are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate northeast to east
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will
gradually dissipate tonight. The aforementioned strong cold front
is anticipated to move across the waters east of the Bahamas
through this morning while weakening. Large swell is impacting the
waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. Strong winds and a new
set of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, covering
the waters east of 70W through tonight. Winds to gale force are
impacting the waters north of 30N southeast of Bermuda, but should
diminish below gale force this morning. Another cold front will
move over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Fri
before moving east of the area Sat. It will be followed by
additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Looking ahead, yet
another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat, and
move east of the region through Mon.

$$
Aguirre