RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 280428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for
the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The
forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind
Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at
least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N
and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12
to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands.

For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust
high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to
strong trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind
waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of
8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with
highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next
week, while drifting SW.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N14W, then extends southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between
20W-26W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends across the northern Gulf from 30N85W to
26N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N84W to 25N91W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the
trough. This convective activity is further supported by a broad
upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the east-central
Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas in
the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, the convection will progress southeastward
tonight while the front slows down as it shifts east-southeastward
across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of
the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong ridge of high
pressure will build west- southwestward over the area from the N
Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient
generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
across the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian
low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean
while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas
are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are
noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
over the next several days. A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure N of the area and relatively lower pressure
in N Colombia will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night
Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most
of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in
mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early
next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. Elsewhere, little
change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing
through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special
Features section for more information.

A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores,
extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The
tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern
Atlantic. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are
noted on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas
and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the
southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly
southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun
night before dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the front are affecting the waters off Florida. Another
cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next
week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon
night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12
ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the
middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough
seas over much of the basin.

$$
ERA