RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

160
AXNT20 KNHC 032219
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at
least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due
to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A gale-force
low north of the area near Morocco continues to generate large NE
swell with very rough seas to 13 ft. The swell has propagated
well southwestward while combining with a large and elongated
fetch of fresh to strong NE to E trades, with very rough seas
currently over much of the tropical central and eastern Atlantic
south of 22N and west of 35W. These seas will gradually subside
from east to west through early Wed.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 06N14W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to he coast of Brazil near 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 07N between
10W and 17W, and from 00N to 04N between 22W and 29W. Similar
convection is noted on conventional infrared satellite imagery
near the coast of Brazil between 35W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface trough over the central Gulf is producing a small
area of disorganized convection from 24N to 27N between 87W and
90W. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across the basin with
generally quiet weather. Winds and seas are moderate to locally
fresh across the basin, except for slight seas nearshore in the SW
Gulf.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge
southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend, with the
resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of
Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh to strong each night off
the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

No organized convection is ongoing across the area, though there
is a patch of some shower activity between Venezuela and
Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging from strong high pressure
centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds
over the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, with moderate to fresh NE winds across the lee side of
Cuba to the NW Caribbean. Seas in the regions of highest winds
are rough, with moderate seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a
ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into the weekend
to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through the
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast
period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin
to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very
rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N
Atlantic will subside modestly Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant
swell event in the Central and Eastern Atlantic.

Although high pressure dominates the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic basin, there are a few smaller weather features to note.
The tail end of a stalled front enters the area near 31N55W and
extends to 24N66W. Moderate deep convection is present near the
boundary, mainly north of 23N between 51W and 66W. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds are noted west of the boundary to near 76W along
with rough seas. Lastly, the tail end of a cold front extends
from Morocco from 24N16W through 21N27N to 23N36W, though no
significant convection is occurring near that boundary per
conventional METEOSAT satellite imagery. Fresh to strong trades
dominate the waters southeast of a line from 31N30W to near
Hispaniola with moderate to locally fresh winds across the
majority of the remainder of the waters. As mentioned in the
Special Features section, seas are elevated across much of the
area due to long period swell propagating from the gale-force low
near Morocco, with moderate seas across the remainder of the
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
near 31N57W southwestward to 24N70W will become diffuse tonight.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas N of
the front will also diminish tonight. However, rough seas will
linger into Wed night while expanding southeastward and merging
with easterly trade wind swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas.
Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the
western N Atlantic during the next few days and produce fresh to
strong E winds mostly south of 25N.

$$
Lewitsky/Cangialosi