RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues south-southwestward to 01N20W and westward to 01S30W
and to 01S37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02S to 04N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin
while a trough is near the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to
Veracruz. The pressure gradient between these two features is
allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 87W along with 3
to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 87W along with
seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and patches of fog along
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Visibility may be reduced in these areas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A rather strong
spring time cold front should emerge off the Texas coast late Fri
night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north
to northeast winds, with near gale winds possibly over the west-
central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are presently forecast to build
to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across the
basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of about 15N and
east of 75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly
light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas
prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate
seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary from near
31N67W to just east of the northern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N64W to 26N78W and to near the coast of the
Dominican Republic at 20N71W. Fresh northeast to east winds are
northwest of the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Overnight
scatterometer satellite indicates moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 27N and east to
near 55W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Numerous moderate
convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and trough to near
58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low is near
30N31W, with a cold front extending to 25N35W and to 23N45W, where a
trough continues to 24N50W and northwestward to 26N55W and to
27N62W. A ridge axis behind the front extends from a 1024 mb high
that is north of the area at 34N54W southeastward to near 27N40W.
Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the front to near
38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is generally maintaining
moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N,
with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across most
of the Atlantic outside from the frontal boundaries are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near
24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas NW of the front
will diminish this morning. A cold front is expected to move
offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across
the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before
passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
Aguirre