RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 012214
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The
front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat,
then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before
stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds
reaching gale-force offshore Tampico early on Sat, and Sat
afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force
are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are
forecast to build to around 12 ft in the area of strongest winds
through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the
latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low-latitude tropical wave with an axis along 21W extends S of
11N, moving W at around 10 kt. This wave is encompassed within a
thick Saharan Air Layer with significant dry air and an otherwise
hostile environment preventing any sort of convection to be
associated with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W southwestward to 03N17W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N30W. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing south of 03N between 25W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to Corpus
Christi Bay. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
along and north of this front, some of which is producing locally
very gusty winds. Outside of convection, strong NE winds are
ongoing N of the front. Most of the rest of the Gulf is dominated
by ridging associated with high pressure centered east of the
Bahamas, inducing gentle SE winds, but a diurnal trough over the
Yucatan Peninsula is yielding fresh to locally strong W winds
within 90 nm N of the peninsula. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western
Gulf and 1 to 3 ft in the east. Offshore the Yucatan Peninsula
where the strong winds are occurring, there are likely some
locally higher seas as well. Areas of smoke due to agricultural
and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3
to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and
northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a strong late- season cold front will push off
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana this evening, merging with the
stationary boundary over the northern Gulf. By Sat morning, the
combined front is forecast to extend from northern Florida to near
Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by Sun morning. The front will be followed by fresh
to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force
offshore Tampico by Sat morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat
afternoon and night. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the
strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are
also forecast in the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters.
Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine
conditions should significantly improve early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure E of the SE
Bahamas and a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is
sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia and NW
Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in
these areas. Fresh to locally strong E winds have also developed N
of Honduras in the vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf
of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Moderate to fresh easterly
trades prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for
light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 12N and W of 80W, supported by a
mid to upper- level trough persisting across the far W Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the
south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with locally
rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel by Mon. This will slightly weaken the pressure gradient
and winds across the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weak low that had been offshore NE Florida has moved N and out
of the area. A nearly stationary cold front extends from 31N68W
to 29N75W to near Jacksonville, Florida. A 1016 mb high pressure
is centered just E of the SE Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front
has now stalled from 31N39W to 28N50W, with another stationary
boundary from 31N30W to 20N60W. Then, in the far eastern Atlantic,
a 1018 mb high is centered W of the Canary Islands. None of these
features are leading to significant convection or strong winds, as
winds are generally moderate or weaker N of 20N, with moderate
seas. Offshore Hispaniola, some locally fresh E winds are
ongoing, and some occasionally rough seas are present N of 29N
between 25W and 50W. To the S of 20N, gentle trades become
moderate to fresh S of 15N, and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move eastward across the northern waters through Sat while
dissipating. The trough NE of the Leeward Islands will persist on
Sat and then weaken. Another cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N71W to
South Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. A weak low pressure
may develop along the front at that time. Fresh to strong winds
will precede the front on Sat. Mainly fresh northeast to east
winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough
seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and
Tue night with improving marine conditions.

$$
Konarik