RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will
move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by
Thu evening. The front will be followed by fresh to near gale-
force NW to N winds and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force
are expected across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf,
particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL tonight into
early Thu morning. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region
Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong
northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico
and Veracruz on Sun.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW waters, extending
from 31N75W to Freeport, Bahamas where it then stalls to W Cuba,
will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and
weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by Thu evening. A
reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming
weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ begins
near 04N11W and continues along 02N30W to 03N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 14W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico. Gust to gale force winds and very rough seas to 12 ft are
ongoing ahead of the front in the NE Gulf while recent
scatterometer data show strong to near gale-force NW winds
following the front. Observations across the north-central and NW
Gulf show seas to 8 ft with these winds. Scattered to isolated
showers are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will move rapidly across the
basin, shifting southeast of the area by this evening. The front
is followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will
improve from NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing
front and surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the
basin this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean due to the passage
of a cold front N of the area is supporting light to gentle winds
and slight seas. The subtropical Atlantic ridge extending to the
NE Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across
the remainder basin along with moderate seas. Locally strong NE
winds are ongoing offshore Colombia per scatterometer data.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds
offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night
through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate
to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall
from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds
and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and
surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where
it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N
and W of 68W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a
1029 mb high near 32N27W. Moderate to locally E winds are across
the central subtropical waters and across the tropics along with
moderate to rough seas in mixed swell. Over the far E subtropical
Atlantic, winds are fresh to strong from the NE, especially
between the coast of NE Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing cold front will move
off Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front,
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force Thu
night east of the front and N of 29N. Otherwise, another cold
front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

$$
Ramos