RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122246
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a
strong ridge over the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa
results in strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough to very rough
seas off Morocco. Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the
marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya through 13/12Z.

Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product,
listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues
southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is present within 300 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, extending from a 1034
mb high pressure system centered near 41N68W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas prevail across the basin.
Generally dry conditions are occurring over the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly
moderate seas through Fri. Expect stronger winds to pulse across
the Florida Straits through the early part of the week, and off
the Yucatan Peninsula mainly night through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge north of the
Caribbean and lower pressures in NW South America results in fresh
to strong NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are found
in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. No significant
weather are occurring in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong east winds and rough seas over the
south-central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the
early part of the week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and
building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola through most of the upcoming
week. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning off Morocco.

A cold front enters the basin near 31N57W and continues
southwestward to a 1016 mb low pres near 26N62W, then a
stationary front follows to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are present near these boundaries. A
tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge over NE England
and the aforementioned fronts sustains fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas across much of the waters behind these boundaries.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge near the Azores. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and
rough seas to 10 ft are observed north of 10N and east of 40W.
The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the far NE
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 7-9
ft are noted south of 20N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through
the early part of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas persist west of the front mainly south of 27N through mid
week, then diminishing through Fri.

$$
ERA