RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Mar 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front extends from
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Recent
scatterometer data along with buoy and land-based observations
are showing gale force winds across much of the northern and
western Gulf following the front. A recent report from Veracruz,
Mexico showed sustained 35 kt winds with gusts to 50 kt as the
front moved through. Recent buoy and altimeter data indicate
rough to very rough seas following the front. Seas will peak
between 15 and 18 ft under the strongest winds. Both winds and
seas should gradually subside from north to south starting this
evening.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast
near 10N14W to 03N20W. An ITCZ continues from 03N20W across
02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 22W ad 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a Storm Warning.

Outside of the winds and seas following the front as described
above in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SW
winds and 3-5 seas are noted ahead of the front. Numerous
moderate to strong thunderstorms are active ahead of the front,
north of 25N, moving into the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward, and
reach from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula by early
Tue morning. Widespread near gale-force to gale-force N winds and
rough seas are occurring behind the front. These winds will
continue to peak at gale-force off the NW and W Gulf later this
afternoon and through the evening. In addition, winds near
Veracruz will reach storm force for a brief period. Seas will
build to very rough in the area of these winds. As the front moves
farther southeastward away from the Gulf late tonight through
Tue, conditions will gradually improve from north to south. In the
wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region and
prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong E
winds across the eastern Caribbean, where associated combined
seas are 7-10 ft. These winds are supported by strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. A few
thunderstorms are noted near the Isle of Youth off western Cuba.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure at the
north Atlantic building southward toward the central Atlantic
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across
the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central
Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through
Wed. On Tue morning, a cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Then, it will
slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by early Wed morning while dissipating. This should
decrease the influence from the high and allow winds and seas
across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of thunderstorms is moving off the northeast Florida coast
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front moving through
the northeast Gulf. Strong to gale force S to SW winds are noted
west of 77W to the northeast Florida coast, where seas are 6-8
ft. A broad ridge extends across the remainder of basin anchored
by 1041 mb high pressure centered near 43N52W. A cold front
reaches from the Azores Islands to 30N50W. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and 7-10 ft over the
remainder of the area west of 35W, and gentle to moderate N to NE
winds and 5-7 ft seas east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the near-gale to gale force
southerly winds and rough seas off northeast Florida should
shift to the W to NW and diminish to fresh to strong speeds this
evening as the front moves eastward through early Tue. At the
same time, a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary
and move quickly northeastward. The front will continue to move
SE and extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wed
while becoming stationary. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends
southward from a high across 31N62W to beyond SE Florida. This
high will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough
seas south of 25N, including the southeast Bahamas and Great
Bahama Bank through Tue. By Tue evening, the ridge will retreat
eastward in response to the aforementioned cold front. Thus,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

$$
Christensen