RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Mar 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1651 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving into
the waters offshore of northeast Florida this morning. It is
forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and
from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over
the SE waters on Tue. Strong to gale force N to NE winds, and
rough to very rough seas to 15 ft are expected behind the front
from this morning to Sun morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 0.5N22W. The
ITCZ then continues from that point to 04S38W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of
both boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving into the northern Gulf this morning and extends
from the Cedar Key, FL to just south of Brownsville, TX. Recent
satellite derived winds confirmed the presence of NE fresh to
strong winds in the wake of the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within
these winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail elsewhere
across the basin along with 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from the
Tampa Bay area to near 26N91W by this evening, and move southeast
of the basin on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate
seas are expected in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf
through late this morning, and over the eastern Gulf late today
through Sun. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to
sustain fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the
southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8
ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and western
basin. Gentle to moderate trades are ongoing across the eastern
Caribbean with moderate seas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain
over the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early
next week. Then, high pressure following a strong cold front
moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, will sustain
fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas in the lee side of
Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from
tonight through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

A strong cold front is entering our AOR and extends from 31N78W
to just north of Saint Augustine, FL. Farther east, a surface
trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from 20.5N to
29N between 50W and 62W. A broad surface ridge continues to extend
across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are over the
central and eastern basin. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds
are mainly light to gentle ahead of an approaching cold front,
except for moderate to fresh over the Great Bahama Bank, including
the approaches of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is
forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and
from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over
the SE waters on Tue. Strong to gale force N to NE winds, and
rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front from this
morning to Sun morning. Strong high pressure following the front
will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough
seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue night
into Wed.

$$
KRV