RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W then runs westward to
near 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N28W to 00N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 03W and
22W and from 00N to 07N between 27W and 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 24N87W
where it becomes and stationary front that continues W to just N
of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough over the central Bay of
Campeche is generated scattered moderate convection. Winds basin-
wide are moderate or weaker from the E to SE, and seas are slight.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build over the
northern Gulf as the frontal system from the Straits of Florida
to N of Tampico continues to weaken. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas are expected over much of the basin through Sun as the
front slowly dissipates. Locally fresh NE winds will be possible
in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a trough develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. Looking ahead, moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will develop over the
central and eastern Gulf early next week as a cold front pushes
off the coast of the southeastern United States. Locally strong NE
winds and rough seas will be possible through the Florida
Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure E of the Bahamas and low pressure over NW Colombia
continues to support a pressure gradient that is resulting in
fresh to strong NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean along
with rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere in the east, central and southwest
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker NE to NE winds are over the NW basin
along with slight seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected offshore of northern Colombia through Wed as low
pressure prevails over NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas will occur over much of the remainder basin
through the middle of next week, supported by high pressure to the
north. A pair of cold fronts will move across the SW N Atlantic
waters and will support the development of strong speed NE winds
in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE swell in the tropical Atlantic
waters will slowly subside into Sun evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the northern Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida. Ahead of the front, there is a 1019 mb high
near 27N66W. Farther east, a 1015 mb low near 28N56W continues to
weaken. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder central
and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. West of 55W, winds are
moderate or weaker and seas moderate to rough. Fresh to strong NE
to E and E to SE winds along with rough seas to 12 ft are ongoing
elsewhere over the subtropical waters E of 55W as the pressure
gradient tightens between the ridge and a frontal boundary that
extends from NW Africa to 26N28W to 31N35W. Scattered showers are
to the E of the low and south of the frontal boundary between 21W
and 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1016 mb low located near 28N56W and
associated weakening stationary front will weaken into a surface
trough later today. Widespread rough seas in N to NE swell
associated with this low east of 64W will subside today. Looking
ahead, a strong cold front will push off the coast of the
southeastern U.S. Sun night into Mon, supporting widespread strong
NE winds and rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into
the middle of next week.

$$
Ramos