RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

240
AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled from 31N75W to
near Melbourne, Florida. This front will meander and drift slowly
SE through late week, eventually reaching from just N of Bermuda
to near Palm Beach, FL by Wed morning. Low pressure is forecast to
form along the front in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas on Tue,
then move NE along the boundary and out of the basin toward
Bermuda by Thu. Strong high pressure building N of the front will
produce strong to near gale-force NE winds by early Tue, then
increase to gale-force midday Tue through at least Wed night as
the low pressure moves along the front. Very rough seas in excess
of 15 ft are likely in the area of gales, and will linger N of the
front through late Thu. The front is expected to stall from near
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu night and gradually
weaken into the weekend, with marine conditions slowly improving.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information
on both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W, then reaches SW to 00N27W. The ITCZ extends west-
southwestward from 00N27W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 28W, and from
02S to 04N between 29W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Tampa Bay area SW to a 1013
mb low pressure centered near 24N91W. A cold front extends
southward from the low into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
scatterometer data show strong to near gale force winds across the
E Mexico offshores where rough seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range.
Across the NE Gulf offshore waters, the scatterometer show fresh
to strong NE winds and moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW
offshores. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in the NE basin with the strongest
winds N of the front. Aside from the winds and the seas, scattered
heavy showers are ongoing over the eastern Gulf waters E of 87W.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will prevail W
of the cold front through tonight, with fresh to strong NE winds
N of the stationary front prevailing in the NE Gulf through Thu as
the low pressure tracks along the boundary. Ahead of the low,
scattered thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds.
Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as high pressure
over the NE U.S builds southwestward across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary moving across the Gulf of America and NE
Florida offshores is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient over
the NW and SW Caribbean where light to gentle variable winds are
ongoing along with slight seas. Central Atlantic high pressure,
however, extends a ridge axis southwestward to the NE Caribbean,
thus supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and
eastern basin along with moderate seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the north-central Atlantic and low pressure over South
America will continue to support fresh to locally strong E to SE
winds over the eastern half of the basin through early Thu and
gentle to moderate NE winds across the western portion. By Thu,
strong high pressure across the western Atlantic will build
southward toward the region to bring a return to more typical
fresh to strong winds across south-central portions offshore of
Colombia and NW Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features above for details on a
developing Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne,
Florida. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds
following the front and affecting the NE Florida offshores where
satellite imagery depict scattered heavy showers. Over the far
eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N20W SW to 27N30W to
27N42W. A pre-frontal trough extends across the Canary Islands,
but no significant convection is associated with either feature.
The remainder basin is under the influence of a 1033 mb high
centered SW of the Azores near 36N39W. The pressure gradient
between the cold front and the ridge supports moderate to fresh NE
to E winds across the central and eastern subtropical waters where
long period NW swell is ongoing with 8 to 15 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will meander and drift
slowly SE through late week, eventually reaching a line from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu. During this time, weak low
pressure will move NE along the boundary from the Bahamas to
Bermuda, tightening the pressure gradient between the front and
building high pressure from the SE United States. This will induce
a broad area of northeasterly gales starting offshore NE Florida
Tue and spreading eastward to 72W by Wed night, before diminishing
slightly as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas
in excess of 15 ft will build in the area of gales, and will
linger N of the front through late Thu. The front may remain
stalled into the the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow
to improve.

$$
Ramos