RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180928
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N22W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high
center over the NE Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light winds and
seas of 1-2 ft are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found west of the Yucatan
peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken
today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold
front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early
part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to
south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Caribbean basin. Seas
are in the 4-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the forecast
period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the
Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving
into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N73W to the central Bahamas. A
surface trough is just off the coast of western Africa. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N47W. Light to gentle
winds are over the northern waters in the vicinity of the high.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-9 ft are
found S of 16N as well as east of 30W. Seas of 4-7 ft generally
prevail elsewhere, except 3-4 ft over the far NW portion of the
discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from
the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to
move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front
as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon,
from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and
dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week.

$$
AL