RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell: A 994 mb low
pressure is centered well NE of Bermuda near 38N51W. The gradient
between this low and a 1026 mb high pressure moving E just N of
the NW Bahamas is supporting gale-force WNW winds N of 30N
between 47W and 56W. Fresh to strong W winds extend southward to
28N from 32W and 65W. Gales will end this morning, and the fresh
to strong winds will diminish into tonight, as the low pressure to
the north weakens and moves farther from the area. An extensive
area of very rough seas in NW to N well remains over the waters N
of 18N between 28W and 68W, with peak seas around 24 ft near
30N50W. These seas will only slowly decay from W to E, finally
falling below 12 ft for most areas by Wed night. Mariners are
urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building
southeastward across the western Atlantic and northern Caribbean
will tighten the pressure gradient across the basin. This will
result in strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale-force offshore Colombia tonight and again
Wed night. Seas will build to 11 ft in association with these
gales.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W to 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to
00N42W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N to 06N
between 08W and 33W and from 00N to 04N between 37W and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure centered over Georgia. This pattern is maintaining
mainly gentle SE winds, except for some moderate to locally fresh
S winds off NE Mexico and southern Texas. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in
the NE Gulf, 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate Gulf
waters through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly
southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected today and tonight
just west of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the far western
waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead,
southerly winds may increase this weekend ahead of an approaching
cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.

High pressure N of the area is building southeastward toward the
Caribbean, which is increasing NE winds over much of the basin to
fresh to strong speeds. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft, although rough
seas are occurring in the SW basin offshore Colombia, S of
Hispaniola, and through Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage
eastward.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between
Cuba and Jamaica into Wed night. Winds will pulse to gale-force
tonight and again Wed night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW
to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and
tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed creating hazardous marine
conditions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell in the central Atlantic.

Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the central
subtropical basin, as described in the Special Features section,
in association with a large and deep low pressure system moving
northeastward across the northwest Atlantic. A stationary front
extends from 31N39W to the northern Leeward Islands, separating a
pair of 1025 mb high pressure centers, one just N of the NW
Bahamas and the other over the Canary Islands. Winds are moderate
or less, with moderate seas outside of the Special Features area,
except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades that exist south of
a line from the Canary Islands to the Windward Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, near gale-force winds in the far NE
waters will gradually diminish into tonight as high pressure
moves eastward across the waters. On the west side of the high,
southwesterly winds will increase over the NW waters starting
tonight, then reach strong speeds Wed, with seas building to rough
N of 28N. These winds will prevail over northern waters through
Wed night, before shifting to strong NW as a cold front crosses
the waters into Thu. Very rough seas in NW to N swell E of 67W
will gradually decay below 12 ft from W to E today and tonight,
with improved seas by Wed. Peak seas this morning SE of Bermuda
along 31N will be as high as 18 ft.

$$
Konarik