RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very
rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force
over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas
currently over the waters from 08N to 23N between 35W and 58W.
The rough to very rough seas, currently peaking near 12-13 ft,
will gradually subside from east to west through Tue night. Rough
seas are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles later
this week and into the weekend.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Liberia near
05N09W and continues southwestward to 02N14W. The ITCZ extends
from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and E of
42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf along 86W/87W
with some isolated thunderstorms near it. Another surface trough
is analyzed in the SW Gulf along 92W/93W. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds are east of the trough, with gentle to moderate or
weaker winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Slight seas prevail across
the SW half of the basin with slight to moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central
Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with
the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche
where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to
strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and
also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus
supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in
the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are
moderate, except for rough seas in the central Caribbean and near
NE and E Caribbean-Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central
Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force
during the nocturnal hours for the next few days. Fresh to strong
northeast winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from
Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind
generated east swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to
slowly subside on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant
swell event.

A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical
waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa
all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N.
Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak
stationary front extends from 31N62.5W southwestward to 28N67W and
to near 26N74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail near
the front and a pre-frontal trough from 25N to 31N between 56W and
70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas follow the
front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
near 31N62.5W southwestward to 28N67W and to near 26N74W will
become diffuse Tue evening. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds along with rough to very rough seas will develop behind the
front tonight. These winds will diminish Tue night. These seas
will linger into Wed while expanding southeastward and merging
with similar seas south of 25N east of Bahamas. Otherwise, strong
high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic
through the next few days. It will be the main feature controlling
the general flow wind pattern across the region, with fresh to
strong east winds confined to mostly south of 25N.

$$
Lewitsky