RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 06N and west of 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front straddles the northern Gulf coast. A weak
pressure gradient is noted across the Gulf waters, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will meander across the
northern Gulf through Fri. Weak high pressure is over the eastern
basin and will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that
will build from the N on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front
is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas. Strong reinforcing high
pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force
winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and gale
conditions, first over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night,
then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon. Areas of dense fog
may form mainly along and just offshore the Texas coast tonight
into Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends a
ridge into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to locally near gale-
force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and
slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface
trough is moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated,
light showers in the area.

For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure
will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while winds pulse to near gale force offshore of
Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will
slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the SW North Atlantic extends into the NW
Bahamas and along with divergence aloft, generates scattered
convection north of 25N and east of 70W. Moderate NE winds and
moderate seas are noted north of this boundary. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of an extensive subtropical
ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
to locally very rough seas, mainly south of 28N and east of 60W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found
south of 25N and between 60W and 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure over the SE
United States extending to offshore northern Florida will
continue to weaken tonight as a cold front slowly moves across the
southeastern United States. Stronger continental high pressure
will build in behind the front as the front moves across the NW
part of the forecast area on Fri night, where it will stall
through early Sat. Low pressure is expected to form along the
western portion of the front and shift northward Sat night into
Sun, pulling the front northward as a warm front. The low will
deepen as it tracks eastward well to the N of the forecast waters
through Sun night. Fresh to strong SW winds will then develop over
the NW forecast waters Sun and Sun night in advance of a strong
arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern
Florida late Sun night. The front will be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N76W to
western Cuba by Mon afternoon, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W to
eastern Cuba by late Tue. Strong high pressure will build in
behind the front. By late Tue, fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front to roughly a line from
near 31N70W to 26N80W.

$$
Delgado