RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES WITH THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
FOR HURRICANE BERYL AND THE 1200 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.6N 53.9W at 30/1200 UTC or
360 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently to 27 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the NE
semicircle and 60 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE and SW
semicircle and within 180 nm in the SE and NW semicircles. A continued
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is
expected to move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday.
Continued rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Heavy rainfall
and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands
tonight and Monday. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to
reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by this evening.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad area of 1008
mb low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm of the center of the low near 18.5N93W. Current winds are
20 to 30 kt with occasionally higher gusts, and seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form
before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning.
Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today. This system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that a 1012 mb area of low pressure
located several hundred nautical miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 07.5N32W has become better organized. Widely
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across a
broad area from 02N to 10N between 23W and 44W. Winds are
currently up to 20 kt with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle
part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours and a high chance of development in the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on both Invest 94L and 96L.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is currently affecting portions of southern and SE
Mexico and western Central America. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and
northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues
propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at
Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this
weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal
areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay
alert on the latest information from their local weather services.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East
Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 12N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt, coincident with Invest 96L near
07.5N32W. Refer to the Special Features section for details on
nearby convection.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near 19N66W
south-southwestward to Venezuela near 06N68W, moving westward at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the tropical
wave.

A Bay of Campeche tropical wave (Invest 94L) is along 93W, south
of 23N, moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the
Special Features section for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to low
pressure, Invest 96L, near 07.5N32W, to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N40W to east of Hurricane Beryl near 11N59W. Convection
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is described in the Special
Features and Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
94L forecast to likely affect Mexico Mon.

A broad subtropical ridge centered in the central Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to strong
easterly winds south of 27N and west of 89W. Seas in these waters
are 7-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 23N93W.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the
Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the
Bay of Campeche will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
large seas NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to the west-central Gulf
with occasional gusts to gale force. Conditions appear generally
conducive for further development and a tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N
Atlantic may approach the NW Caribbean late next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible Thu over portions near the
Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl located east of the Windward Islands, Invest 94L
in the Bay of Campeche, and Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

An upper level low over eastern Cuba results in a few showers
affecting eastern Haiti and the Windward Passage. A broad
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to locally
strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and
just NE of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present elsewhere in the
basin, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean south
of 10N. Seas are 3-6 ft in the areas mentioned, except for slight
seas in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 10.7N 53.1W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 981 mb.
Beryl will move to 11.1N 55.7W this afternoon, 11.8N 59.0W Mon
morning, 12.9N 62.5W Mon afternoon, 14.1N 66.1W Tue morning, 15.4N
70.1W Tue afternoon, and 16.3N 74.0W Wed morning. Beryl will
change little in intensity as it moves to 17.8N 80.9W early Thu,
then to 19.1N 87.1W early Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds
southeast of the Yucatan will diminish later this morning. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue
morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may
move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into
the E Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low
pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Beryl located east of the Windward Islands and the disturbance in
the eastern Atlantic.

Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A
couple of upper level lows north of the Bahamas are producing a
few showers and thunderstorms in the NW Bahamas and nearby waters
and between Bermuda and Hispaniola. A generally dry airmass,
associated with Saharan dust, is found elsewhere in the tropical
Atlantic, north of the deep tropics. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result
in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 19N and east of 25W.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times,
through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl is near 10.7N 53.1W
at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 981 mb. Beryl will move to 11.1N 55.7W this afternoon, 11.8N
59.0W Mon morning, 12.9N 62.5W Mon afternoon, 14.1N 66.1W Tue
morning, 15.4N 70.1W Tue afternoon, and 16.3N 74.0W Wed morning.
Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.8N 80.9W
early Thu, then to 19.1N 87.1W early Fri. A decaying cold front
may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
Lewitsky/Mahoney