RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 242313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to south of the Equator at 19W and
to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S30W and to
04S36W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-27W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
25.5W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf coast. The associated
pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
winds across the basin, except for mostly moderate southeast
winds over the far western Gulf and in the central Bay of
Campeche. Latest buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite
data reveal seas of 3 to 4 ft over the basin.

Isolated showers are over the western part of the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the interaction between the high pressure ridge
and a coastal trough that is just offshore Mexico from near
Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin this weekend into early next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for mostly gentle east
to southeast winds across the basin, including offshore Colombia.
Winds are southeast to south in direction west of about 79W. Seas
throughout are about 2 to 4 ft, including in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Scattered moderate convection is evident north of Jamaica
between 75W and 78W, including over some sections of eastern
Cuba. Similar activity is over some sections of central and
western Cuba, and just offshore western Cuba to the waters near
the Isle of Youth. Isolated showers are over the northern part of
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
lifts northward during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern
will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through midweek as high pressure
builds again north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from near 22N56W to 21N69W and west-northwestward to 23N79W. Aloft,
a rather vigorous shortwave trough is just east of the Florida
peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. Divergence east of the
trough is helping to sustain a large area of moderate rain, with
embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers
the waters south of 28N and between 66W and 77W. A weak 1017 mb
high is analyzed northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N69W.
The associated gradient is supporting moderate or lighter
northeast to east winds, and slight to moderate seas over the
western half of the basin.

A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N36W southwest
to 27N48W. A 1020 mb high is analyzed to the southeast of the
front near 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these two features
is supporting moderate to fresh southwest winds east of the front
to near 30W and north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10
ft primarily in northeast swell. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and along
the coast of NW Africa along with moderate seas. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
lift northward this weekend. Weal low pressure may develop along
the trough axis east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sat, and
move eastward through Sun before dissipating. This will support
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most
of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be
over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds
and rough seas are expected beginning late this afternoon as
another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third
cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
and extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night.

$$
Aguirre