RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is analyzed from
near Mobile Bay to the Texas-Mexico border. Scatterometer data
indicates strong to near-gale force N to NW winds following the
front. Gale force winds and rough seas are ongoing in the wake of
the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana, confirmed by a
1531 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass. These conditions will expand
to areas offshore of Tampico and Veracruz later this afternoon and
tonight. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough
seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late
Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue.
Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A cold front,
stemming from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the
discussion waters near 31N41W and then curves southwestward and
westward to near 24N72W, where it becomes a stationary front that
extends northwestward to 29N77W. Scattered moderate convection
producing gale-force winds is seen ahead of the front out to about
35W and N of 25N, confirmed by a 1247 UTC Metop-C scatterometer
pass. Strong to near- gale force winds with frequent gusts to
gale force are on either side of the front N of 24N between 35W
and 55W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are over the waters N of
22N between 33W and 61W. Frequent gusts to gale force are
expected to end this afternoon. Large N swell generated from the
storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over
the forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 62W. These very rough
seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to
north through the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to 02N51W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 00N to 07N and E of 26W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

A surface trough is noted over the W Gulf, with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms, as well as moderate winds are in the
vicinity of the trough. The remainder of the Gulf is under the
influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
near the SW FL coast. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity
of the high center, with gentle to locally moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the eastern Gulf, and
2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong cold front in the northern Gulf will
sweep over the basin through late Tue. Gale force winds and very
rough seas will occur over the northwestern basin through early
this afternoon, and severe gales are expected to develop offshore
of Tampico this afternoon, and offshore of Veracruz this evening.
Very rough seas, peaking near 20 ft, will accompany these winds.
Gales and significant rough seas will continue over the western
Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Elsewhere behind the
front, widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected, with winds and seas slowly diminishing from north to
south Tue into early Wed. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf around midweek, supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight seas over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of
7-10 ft over the south central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the eastern and north
central Caribbean. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will occur over the central
Caribbean through Tue as high pressure prevails north of the
basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the south-central
Caribbean, and may approach near-gale force offshore of Colombia
late tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of the
strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell
are expected through late Thu before seas subside. Looking ahead,
a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue,
and fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel.
The front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the
northwestern basin by late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a gale
warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

In addition to the conditions described in the Special Features
section, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 20N
between 21W and 68W, up to the area of very rough seas outlined
above. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are
over the deep tropics S of 12N between 25W and 60W. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds and very
rough seas will prevail north of 23N and east of 62W into this
afternoon as a strong cold front in the central Atlantic moves
eastward. Widespread rough seas associated with this front will
continue east of 68W today, with seas slowly subsiding from west
to east through midweek. Elsewhere, fresh W to SW winds offshore
of northern and central Florida will increase to strong speeds
this afternoon as a strong cold front moves through the southern
United States. The front is slated to push off the coast later
today, with fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas expected
in the wake of the front. The front will progress eastward through
midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely ahead of the front,
and fresh to locally strong NW winds following the front. Rough
seas associated with the front are expected north of 28N, with
seas subsiding from west to east Tue through Wed. Looking ahead,
the next cold front moving off the coast of the United States is
forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic late this week,
with increasing winds and building seas likely near and behind the
front.

$$
Adams