Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
 

Thursday, August 16, 2018

...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Today...Highest Rain Chances Across North Florida...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for Most Panhandle and Some East Coast Beaches...Subtropical Storm Ernesto Poses No Threat to Land...Invest 99L Has a Low Chance of Formation...

Updated 8:55 A.M. EDT

High pressure over the western Atlantic will result in southerly flow over the Panhandle, leading to an increase in moisture and rain chances today. Some drier air will move in across the southern and eastern portions of the Peninsula today, which will help to limit the rain chances in those areas. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the West Coast associated with the sea breeze.

Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to briefly severe this afternoon. Gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be the primary threats with stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in some storms, especially across North Florida.

Highs will rise to the upper 80s to lower 90s statewide. With more cloud cover and higher rain chances, heat index values in the Panhandle will be in the middle to upper 90s. In the Peninsula, heat index values will climb to 100 to 105.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms will fade after sunset. However, during the overnight and early morning hours, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandle and Southeast Florida. Lows tonight will remain muggy between 75 and 80, except middle 80s in the Keys.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Panhandle beaches from Walton County through Franklin County today due to light onshore winds. Onshore winds will also result in a moderate risk of rip currents along the East Coast from Nassau County through Flagler County and from Palm Beach County through Miami-Dade County. A low risk is expected at all other Florida beaches. Wave heights will be around 1-2’ along the Gulf Coast, and 2-3’ along the East Coast. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! For the latest rip current outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Rivers are receding statewide, and there are no River Flood Warnings in effect. The Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam remains in minor flood stage. Several other rivers are in action stage, but receding. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than 1”, but some localized areas may see up to 2” in heavier thunderstorms. This could lead to some nuisance flooding in urban or low-lying areas, but should not contribute to significant river rises. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here.

Lake Okeechobee average elevation is 14.58 feet, which is 0.60 feet above normal for this time of year.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto is moving to northeast over the far northern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, but no impact to land is expected.

Invest 99L, located 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, could slowly develop over the next 2-3 days. However, conditions will become unfavorable once the system moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea. The chances for development are 10% (low) during the next 48 hours, and 20% (low) during the next 5 days. For more information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

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