Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyFriday, April 19, 2024
...Dense Fog Advisories In Effect Across Portions Of The Florida Panhandle Through Mid-Morning...One More Day of Mostly Clear Skies and Dry Conditions Statewide...Sensitive Wildfire Conditions Across The Interior Northern and Central Peninsula...Wind Gusts Near 15-20 MPH Possible Along Coastlines With The Sea Breezes...Moderate Risk For Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast Beaches; Locally High Risk Along Walton, Bay, and Gulf Counties...Areal Flood Warning Remains In Effect For Portions of Eastern Leon County...Minor to Moderate River Flooding Continues for Several Big Bend and Suwannee Valley Rivers...
Updated at 8:53 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Hail | Fog (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Locally FL Panhandle & NW Peninsula |
Int. Central & N Peninsula |
Big Bend & Suwannee Valley |
Locally Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Dense Fog Advisories are in effect across portions of the Western Panhandle and Big Bend until 9 AM CDT/10 AM EDT this morning as dense fog reducing visibilities to ¼ mile or less could create hazardous driving conditions. High pressure shifting eastward along the western Atlantic will allow dry and warm conditions to persist across the state for one more day (near 0-10% chance of rain). Mostly sunny conditions can be expected throughout the day.
High temperatures will warm up into the middle 80s to middle 90s across the state this afternoon. Sea breezes will develop along the coastlines with the help of daytime heating, which will help to keep coastal areas slightly cooler than inland areas. With the sea breeze, wind gusts of 15-20 mph may develop along the coastline during the afternoon. Despite returning moisture, dry air will linger across interior regions of the Peninsula, allowing for relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon (30-40%) and creating yet another day of sensitive wildfire conditions.
Mostly dry conditions will continue into the overnight hours as high pressure shifts further eastward and a cold front approaches from the north (near 0-5% chance of rain). Low temperatures will reach the 60s overnight, with South Florida and the Keys remaining in the low to middle 70s. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible along the Florida Panhandle, Suwannee Valley, and Nature Coast overnight and early Saturday morning as moisture continues to return and winds calm.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents extends along Panhandle and East Coast beaches today with a locally high risk along Walton County, Bay County, Gulf County state park beaches. A low risk can be expected elsewhere. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards:Wave heights near 1-2’ are anticipated along the Florida Panhandle and Atlantic-facing Keys this afternoon with around 1’ waves along the West Coast and Gulf-facing Keys. The Florida East Coast can expect to see wave heights near 1-3’.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Dense Fog Advisories are in effect across portions of the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend until 9 AM CDT/10 AM EDT this morning as dense fog reducing visibilities to ¼ mile or less create potentially hazardous driving conditions. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. Dry air continues to linger throughout interior portions of the Northern and Central Peninsula, bringing relative humidity values down to near critical thresholds this afternoon (30-40%). Warm and ongoing dry conditions, combined with near critical relative humidity values, will allow for another day of sensitive wildfire conditions. Light winds will develop throughout the day, with wind gusts near 10-15 mph. Stronger wind gusts near 15-20 mph will be possible at times along coastlines due to the sea breezes developing throughout the day. Patchy to locally dense fog will be possible along the Florida Panhandle, Suwannee Valley, and Nature Coast overnight and early Saturday morning as moisture continues to filter in and winds remain calm. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 24 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 60 acres.
Drought: Widespread heavy rainfall along the Florida Panhandle last week has helped to alleviate and remove drought conditions along the Western Panhandle on this week’s drought monitor update. Meanwhile, abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have emerged along eastern portions of the Central and Southern Peninsula, surrounding and north of Lake Okeechobee, where drier weather over the last 14-30 days has led to rainfall deficits of 1-3” below normal for this time of year. Little to no rainfall expected across the region over the next week may exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 214 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk of flash flooding today. An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Capitola, Chaires and Baum areas east of northeast Tallahassee near I-10 as there is still deep standing water and road closures associated with heavy rainfall last week. Conditions will be reassessed later this afternoon and may extend the flood warning.
Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings are in effect for numerous rivers and creeks along the Florida Big Bend and Suwannee Valley as water levels rise following widespread heavy rainfall last week. The St. Marks River near Newport is forecast to remain within moderate flood stage through the rest of today and the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates is forecast to reach moderate flood stage by this evening. The Withlacoochee River near Pinetta, Aucilla River at Lamont, Suwannee River (near Suwannee Springs, at Luraville (SR-51), at Branford (US-27), and at Rock Bluff near Bell (CR-340)), and Santa Fe River at Hildreth remain within minor flood stage through this week and into the weekend. The Suwannee River (near Wilcox and at Manatee Springs) have seen water levels rise into Action Stage (bank-full) and are forecast to reach minor flood stage this weekend and into next week. River Flood Warnings remain in effect along these forecast points as water levels remain above flood stage. An additional River Flood Warning cannot be ruled out along the Santa Fe River near Fort White as flooding along the Suwannee causes waters to back up into the basin, likely pushing water levels into minor flood stage. There are no additional river flood concerns at this time. Dry conditions over the region will help to allow for water levels to level out today. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.72 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.80 feet above normal for this time of year.
