RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 13th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and into Tuesday.
- First cluster of storms beginning to make its way into the Panhandle this morning and will continue to move eastward through the Big Bend and into the Northern and interior Central Peninsula mid to late morning through the afternoon (65-95% chance of rain).
- The second cluster of thunderstorms is anticipated to move into the Panhandle overnight, moving eastward through the Big Bend late overnight and early Tuesday morning before continuing into the Peninsula (50-90% chance of rain).
- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle today with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending through the Big Bend.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch #234 has been issued across the Florida Panhandle as strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts (up to 75 mph), a tornado or two, and isolated large hail (up to 1.5” diameter) will be possible.
- Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) extending through the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend as widespread rainfall totals of 2-4” with locally higher totals of 4-8” are anticipated and will likely give way to instances of flooding, especially over already saturated grounds, urban corridors, and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Flood Watches have been issued along the Florida Panhandle.
- The rest of the state will also see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight (15-35% chance of rain).
- Near or above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to middle 90s and lows in the 70s to low 80s.
- Heat indices approaching or reaching triple digits (97-102) anticipated along West-Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and the Keys.
- Wind gusts near 20-30 mph will be possible at times outside of thunderstorm activity.
- Sensitive wildfire conditions will persist along the West-Central Peninsula this afternoon.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast.
- Riverine flooding may be possible across North Florida in the coming days depending on where the heaviest rainfall occurs over the next 48 hours.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Morning Situation Report
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 12th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure over the Carolinas will help to keep conditions mostly dry across the state throughout the day.
- An upper-level feature moving along the weak cold front attempting to move into North Florida may allow for light showers or brief sprinkles across the I-10 corridor this morning (15-20% chance of rain).
- Any showers or sprinkles that develop should be remain light and brief as they will move eastward quickly; however, drier conditions closer towards the ground may limit any rainfall from reaching the ground.
- Extensive cloud cover over North Florida will keep high temperatures in the low to middle 80s, while a mixture of sunshine and clouds across Central and South Florida will allow for high temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat index value, or feels-like temperatures, will reach the low to middle 90s across South Florida and the Keys by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Cloud cover and rain chances will increase late in the overnight hours and pre-dawn hours on Monday as a warm front develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico and pushes towards the Gulf Coast states, allowing for isolated to scattered showers along the western Panhandle (20-35% chance of rain).
- Dry conditions will allow for relative humidity values to fall near or below critical thresholds late this afternoon along the I-75 corridor and interior Peninsula, allowing for sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions to continue throughout central portions of the Peninsula.
- Locally elevated surf of 1-2’ along Panhandle and Big Bend beaches will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents, while onshore winds returning to the East Coast will create a moderate risk for rip currents for several beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 11, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The cold front that swept across North Florida yesterday will continue to weaken and push through the Peninsula today bringing drier conditions nearly statewide in its wake.
- Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning can be expected along the frontal boundary but will weaken and dissipate throughout the day (20-40% chance of rain).
- During the peak heating hours of the day, isolated to very widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms may develop along Treasure Coast before moving offshore and dissipating during the evening (15-25% chance of rain).
- Organized severe weather is not expected; however, any stronger thunderstorm activity that develops would be capable of producing lightning, locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across North Florida, and low to middle 90s across Central and South Florida by the afternoon.
- Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, will reach the upper 90s and into triple digits (100-101) south of the I-4 corridor by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions can be expected from the I-75 corridor and throughout the interior Peninsula as relative humidity values by the late afternoon to fall near or below critical thresholds (low to middle 30%) and breezy wind gusts reach upwards of 20 mph at times.
- Lingering elevated surf of 2-4’ along North and East-Central Florida beaches will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday. May 10, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is tracking eastward along the I-10 corridor through the Big Bend this morning ahead of a frontal boundary associated with a low-pressure system.
- These strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track eastward through the Suwannee Valley and Northern Peninsula this morning and through the afternoon (60-near 100% chance of rain).
- Some redevelopment and of showers and thunderstorms is occurring along the frontal boundary in the Panhandle and will move eastward with the frontal boundary.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist along and north of the I-10 corridor this evening before gradually dissipating through the overnight hours (30-60% chance of rain).
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere through the state (5-40% chance of rain).
- There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Northern Peninsula with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending through the Big Bend and south to Crystal River and Daytona Beach.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watches #229 and #230 are in effect across much of North Florida as damaging wind gusts (in excess 55-70 mph), a few brief tornadoes, isolated large hail (up to 1.5” diameter), and heavy downpours will continue to be possible.
- Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding (level 1 of 4) across much of North Florida Flooding and ponding of water is possible.
- Wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph across North and Central Florida outside of thunderstorms.
- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for several counties Northeast of Lake Okeechobee for this afternoon as near to below critical relative humidity values and breezy winds create critical fire weather conditions across Central and South Florida.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle, East Coast, and West-Central Coast.
- A Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch (Space Weather) has been issued for Saturday as periods of strong to severe (G3-G4) geomagnetic storms are likely; isolated short-term effects on technology and infrastructure cannot be ruled out.
- Warm temperatures persist nearly statewide today and tonight with near-normal temperatures anticipated across North Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 9, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A low-pressure system moving across the Midwest U.S. will give way to multiple rounds of severe weather today and Friday.
- The first line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move southward through North Florida this afternoon and evening (20-55% chance of rain), moving offshore overnight.
- The second round of strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to make its way into the Western Panhandle overnight and early Friday morning (20-55% chance of rain).
- Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather (level 3 of 5) along far Northern portions of Florida with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across North Florida; damaging wind gusts (in excess of 50-70 mph), large hail, brief tornadoes, and heavy downpours are likely.
- Slight Risk for Flash Flooding (level 2 of 4) along far northern portions of the Florida Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across much of North Florida; localized flooding and ponding of water over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas possible.
- Dry and mostly clear skies elsewhere (near 0-10% chance of rain).
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s statewide; Heat indices approaching or reaching triple digits (97-101).
- Wind gusts near 20-30 mph at times across North Florida and along the East Coast.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle, East Coast, and West-Central Coast.
- Drought conditions have expanded on this week’s drought monitor update.
- Low temperatures in the 70s through the state and low 80s along the Keys.
- Localized areas of patchy to locally dense fog cannot be ruled out statewide overnight.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
