RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Additional showers and thunderstorms have begun to redevelop in North Florida along and ahead of a frontal boundary, while drier conditions filter in along the I-10 corridor (near 0-35% chance of rain).
- This shower and thunderstorm development can be expected through the morning and afternoon hours, with the highest rain chances along the Northern Peninsula and through the I-4 corridor to north of Lake Okeechobee (65-90% chance of rain).
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across Central Florida with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretching to south of I-10 and to south of Lake Okeechobee.
- Tornado Watch #243 in effect across portions of the Northern and Central Peninsula as a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated large hail (quarter to golf ball sized), frequent lightning, and heavy downpours will be possible today.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of the Northern and Central Peninsula as instances of flooding and ponding of water will be possible in locally heavy downpours.
- High temperatures in the middle 80s to middle 90s statewide.
- Heat indices approaching and reaching triple digits (97-105) across South Florida and into Central Florida.
- Feels like temperatures approaching or reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105-108) are anticipated along the Florida Keys.
- Breezy winds across the Peninsula with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph at times.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents statewide.
- Conditions will begin to dry out overnight with only isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering across the Central and Southern Peninsula (15-45% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 60s across North Florida and 70s to low 80s elsewhere overnight.
- The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks for the 2024 hurricane season; Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic Basin.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms that developed across portions of North Florida this morning continue to track southeastward through the Peninsula this morning (50-85% chance of rain).
- Some residual showers and storms can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours across North and Central Florida.
- Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop along and ahead of a frontal boundary associated with the system, moving through the Peninsula this evening through Wednesday morning (45-75% chance of rain).
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Coastal Big Bend, Northern Peninsula, and south to Sarasota, Sebring, and Port St. Lucie with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along the Florida Panhandle and south to just south of Lake Okeechobee.
- Tornado Watch #240 in effect across portions of the Northern Peninsula as scattered damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), a couple of tornadoes, and instances of hail remain possible.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Big Bend and Northern Peninsula south to near the I-4 corridor with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending along the Panhandle as instances of flooding and ponding of water continue to be possible, especially over already saturated grounds, urban areas, and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Heat Indices will approach or reach triple digits (97-103) across much of the Peninsula and begin to near Heat Advisory criteria along the Keys (100-105).
- Wind Advisories are in effect along the Florida Panhandle as breezy winds with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph are anticipated statewide outside of thunderstorms.
- Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will continue to be possible this afternoon across interior Central Florida.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along nearly all Florida beaches.
- Rivers and waterways across North Florida have begun to see water level rises and minor flooding may be possible.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 13th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and into Tuesday.
- First cluster of storms beginning to make its way into the Panhandle this morning and will continue to move eastward through the Big Bend and into the Northern and interior Central Peninsula mid to late morning through the afternoon (65-95% chance of rain).
- The second cluster of thunderstorms is anticipated to move into the Panhandle overnight, moving eastward through the Big Bend late overnight and early Tuesday morning before continuing into the Peninsula (50-90% chance of rain).
- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle today with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending through the Big Bend.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch #234 has been issued across the Florida Panhandle as strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts (up to 75 mph), a tornado or two, and isolated large hail (up to 1.5” diameter) will be possible.
- Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) extending through the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend as widespread rainfall totals of 2-4” with locally higher totals of 4-8” are anticipated and will likely give way to instances of flooding, especially over already saturated grounds, urban corridors, and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Flood Watches have been issued along the Florida Panhandle.
- The rest of the state will also see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight (15-35% chance of rain).
- Near or above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to middle 90s and lows in the 70s to low 80s.
- Heat indices approaching or reaching triple digits (97-102) anticipated along West-Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and the Keys.
- Wind gusts near 20-30 mph will be possible at times outside of thunderstorm activity.
- Sensitive wildfire conditions will persist along the West-Central Peninsula this afternoon.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast.
- Riverine flooding may be possible across North Florida in the coming days depending on where the heaviest rainfall occurs over the next 48 hours.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Morning Situation Report
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 12th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure over the Carolinas will help to keep conditions mostly dry across the state throughout the day.
- An upper-level feature moving along the weak cold front attempting to move into North Florida may allow for light showers or brief sprinkles across the I-10 corridor this morning (15-20% chance of rain).
- Any showers or sprinkles that develop should be remain light and brief as they will move eastward quickly; however, drier conditions closer towards the ground may limit any rainfall from reaching the ground.
- Extensive cloud cover over North Florida will keep high temperatures in the low to middle 80s, while a mixture of sunshine and clouds across Central and South Florida will allow for high temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat index value, or feels-like temperatures, will reach the low to middle 90s across South Florida and the Keys by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Cloud cover and rain chances will increase late in the overnight hours and pre-dawn hours on Monday as a warm front develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico and pushes towards the Gulf Coast states, allowing for isolated to scattered showers along the western Panhandle (20-35% chance of rain).
- Dry conditions will allow for relative humidity values to fall near or below critical thresholds late this afternoon along the I-75 corridor and interior Peninsula, allowing for sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions to continue throughout central portions of the Peninsula.
- Locally elevated surf of 1-2’ along Panhandle and Big Bend beaches will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents, while onshore winds returning to the East Coast will create a moderate risk for rip currents for several beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 11, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The cold front that swept across North Florida yesterday will continue to weaken and push through the Peninsula today bringing drier conditions nearly statewide in its wake.
- Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning can be expected along the frontal boundary but will weaken and dissipate throughout the day (20-40% chance of rain).
- During the peak heating hours of the day, isolated to very widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms may develop along Treasure Coast before moving offshore and dissipating during the evening (15-25% chance of rain).
- Organized severe weather is not expected; however, any stronger thunderstorm activity that develops would be capable of producing lightning, locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across North Florida, and low to middle 90s across Central and South Florida by the afternoon.
- Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, will reach the upper 90s and into triple digits (100-101) south of the I-4 corridor by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions can be expected from the I-75 corridor and throughout the interior Peninsula as relative humidity values by the late afternoon to fall near or below critical thresholds (low to middle 30%) and breezy wind gusts reach upwards of 20 mph at times.
- Lingering elevated surf of 2-4’ along North and East-Central Florida beaches will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
